March Madness Elite Eight best bets: Picks against the spread for Monday’s games


VSiN’s experts give their March Madness best bets and most likely upsets for the two Elite Eight games being played Monday. VSiN experts have posted a 43-32 record in the NCAA tournament so far.

All odds listed are a consensus from VSiN’s March Madness Vegas odds page.


Arkansas vs. Baylor (-7.5, 149.5)

Arkansas guard Davonte David grabs coach Eric Musselman's hand.
Arkansas guard Davonte David, left, celebrates with coach Eric Musselman after the Razorbacks’ win over Oral Roberts in the NCAA tournament on Saturday.
(Darron Cummings / Associated Press)


Dave Tuley: The South bracket is one of the few brackets of mine that wasn’t blown up, as I had No. 1 seed Baylor meeting No. 3 Arkansas in the Sweet 16. When I handicapped this matchup last week, I had Baylor advancing and the Bears favored by around four points as I really like the Razorbacks under coach Eric Musselman.

The Razorbacks can run with Baylor in what should be a shootout (though I’m not going Over the total after seeing all four Saturday games stay Under). While I need Baylor to advance, I’m hoping Arkansas can cover the spread and give me a middle (though we could consider this a bit of a hedge).

Pick: Arkansas +7.5


Oregon State vs. Houston (-8, 132.5)

Oregon State guard Ethan Thompson passes around Loyola Chicago guard Lucas Williamson.
Oregon State guard Ethan Thompson, left, passes around Loyola Chicago guard Lucas Williamson during the Beavers’ NCAA tournament win Saturday.
(Jeff Roberson / Associated Press)

Josh Appelbaum: This Midwest Region showdown features Cinderella 12-seed Oregon State (20-12) against 2-seed Houston (27-3). Oregon State is on an incredible betting streak: The Beavers have notched six straight upset victories, winning outright as underdogs in every game since the start of the Pac-12 tournament. In the NCAA tournament, Oregon State has upset 5-seed Tennessee, 4-seed Oklahoma State and 8-seed Loyola Chicago. Now, they face a Houston team that has won 10 straight games. The Cougars crushed 15-seed Cleveland State, then took care of business against 10-seed Rutgers and 11-seed Syracuse.

This line opened with Houston listed as an eight-point favorite, and the public is rushing to the window to lay the points with red-hot Houston. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen the line remain frozen at eight or even dip to 7.5 at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze and reverse line move on the ‘dog, with respected money leaning Beavers plus the points. Underdogs that have the line stay the same or fall in their direction are 18-10 ATS (64%) this year’s tournament. We’ve also seen some under money show up, dropping the total slightly from 130.5 to 130. Unders in which the total stays the same or falls are 22-16 (58%) this NCAA tournament.


Pick: Oregon State +8

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