The 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Super Bowl defending champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa. The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups and predicts a winner.
Farmer’s record last season: 174-81-1 (.682). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last season would have been 131-119-6 (.524).
Team records are from last season. Times are Pacific. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under):
Thursday, 5:20 p.m.
TV: Channel 4.
Line: Buccaneers by 71/2. O/U: 52.
Both offenses could wind up in the top five by the end of the season, but Tampa Bay’s defense is 10 to 14 points better. Accounting for rust, it will be a bit closer than that.
Prediction: Buccaneers 38, Cowboys 27
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 705.
Line: Bills by 61/2. O/U: 481/2.
Steelers are rolling out a new offense — do they build new offenses in Pittsburgh? — and have a revamped line. Buffalo picks up where it left off last season and that could be scary good.
Prediction: Bills 34, Steelers 27
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 706.
Line: Panthers by 5. O/U: 45.
Sam Darnold faces old team right away, and has a better skill cast than he ever had in New York. Better offensive line, too. Panthers aren’t terrific but good enough to spoil Zach Wilson’s debut.
Prediction: Panthers 30, Jets 20
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 707.
Line: Jaguars by 21/2. O/U: 441/2.
The Texans are going to run it on some people, and Tyrod Taylor can do a respectable job. But Houston’s defense is terrible. Trevor Lawrence gets off to a good start as does Marvin Jones Jr.
Prediction: Jaguars 28, Texans 20
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 708.
Line: Titans by 3. O/U: 521/2.
Bad matchup for Cardinals. The Titans will run it down their throat with Derrick Henry, then play-action off that to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Arizona’s defense is supposed to be better. We’ll see.
Prediction: Titans 38, Cardinals 31
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 709.
Line: Chargers by 1. O/U: 441/2.
Ryan Fitzpatrick rarely has a good defense backing him but has one now. Justin Herbert is phenomenal, but Chargers are going cross-country and might need time to adjust to Brandon Staley’s D.
Prediction: Washington 27, Chargers 23
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 710.
Line: Vikings by 3. O/U: 48.
We’ll find out soon how Joe Burrow looks on that reconstructed knee. He has some good options but that offensive line is bad. Big game for Vikings back Dalvin Cook, a fantasy-football beast.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Bengals 20
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 711.
Line: 49ers by 71/2. O/U: 45.
The Motor City would go wild for a win. Not going to happen. The 49ers will trample the Lions with Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon, and it’s going to be tough for Jared Goff vs. that (healthy) defense.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Lions 17
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 712.
Line: Falcons by 31/2. O/U: 481/2.
These teams are bad. This comes down to who’s the better quarterback, and that’s Matt Ryan over Jalen Hurts. Plus, the Falcons are at home. Mike Davis has a good day running for Atlanta.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Eagles 20
Sunday, 10 a.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 713.
Line: Seahawks by 21/2. O/U: 491/2.
The Colts don’t have receiver T.Y. Hilton, and their best offensive lineman, guard Quenton Nelson, is coming off foot surgery. Great defense, though. Russell Wilson gets it done for the visitors.
Prediction: Seahawks 28, Colts 24
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.
Line: Chiefs by 61/2. O/U: 541/2.
No scarier QB than Patrick Mahomes. But with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney coming off the edges, and the Browns’ ability to run the ball on Kansas City … this could be Week 1 stunner.
Prediction: Browns 28, Chiefs 27
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 715.
Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 431/2.
Hard to read how good Tua Tagovailoa will be, but he executes RPO slant as well as anyone and has ideal target in rookie Jaylen Waddle. Mac Jones will look promising for Patriots but is short on help.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 17
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 716.
Line: Packers by 4. O/U: 50.
The Packers are going to build an early lead and Jameis Winston is going to be chasing. Stage is set for the new Saints QB to throw for 350 yards and three touchdowns ... with four interceptions.
Prediction: Packers 34, Saints 21
Sunday, 1:25 p.m.
TV: None. DirecTV: 717.
Line: Broncos by 21/2. O/U: 411/2.
Will be interesting to see how Saquon Barkley looks, but he’s playing behind a bad offensive line. Teddy Bridgewater has poise and weapons, and that Denver defense could be a good one.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Giants 20
Sunday, 5:20 p.m.
TV: Channel 4.
Line: Rams by 71/2. O/U: 46.
Rams are preparing for either Bears quarterback, but that’s not going to be the difference. Matthew Stafford makes debut against a familiar opponent and makes good use of his receiving weapons.
Prediction: Rams 34, Bears 21
Monday, 5:15 p.m.
TV: ESPN.
Line: Ravens by 41/2. O/U: 51.
Raiders have gotten a little better on defense, although a little better isn’t going to be enough against Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards, who are going to put up big ground numbers to control it.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Raiders 24
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