NFL Week 10 picks: Chiefs edge Raiders; Rams rebound; Chargers are upset

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Week 10 of the 2021 NFL season begins Thursday with the Baltimore Ravens visiting the Miami Dolphins in Miami Gardens, Fla. The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups.

Farmer’s record last week: 8-6 (.571); season 85-51 (.625). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-6 (.571); season 66-68-2 (.493).

Teams on bye: Bears, Bengals, Texans, Giants.

Times Pacific. Lines according to FanDuel (O/U = over/under):

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Ravens (6-2) at Dolphins (2-7)

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown runs a route against the Minnesota Vikings.

Thursday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: Channel 11, NFL Network, Amazon.

Line: Ravens by 7 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Ravens have gotten back to running effectively, and it’s not just Lamar Jackson. The Dolphins aren’t particularly strong at stopping the run, so Baltimore could wind up playing keep-away.

Prediction: Ravens 30, Dolphins 13

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Jaguars (2-7) at Colts (4-5)

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor plays against the New York Jets.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Colts by 10 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Jaguars have to be feeling good coming off that upset of Buffalo, but Indianapolis is a better team and at home. Carson Wentz has the Indianapolis passing game on a roll.

Prediction: Colts 31, Jaguars 20

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Browns (5-4) at Patriots (5-4)

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson runs with the ball against the Carolina Panthers.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Patriots by 1 1/2. O/U: 45.

The Patriots have been playing well lately and have done a good job of slowing the run — essential against Cleveland. Here’s betting Bill Belichick dials up the right scheme to put the brakes on the Browns.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Browns 21

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Bills (5-3) at Jets (2-6)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks for a receiver.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Bills by 12 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Bills were humiliated by Sunday’s 9-6 loss to Jacksonville. Watch for a big bounce-back game by Josh Allen against a vulnerable Jets defense. Mike White has had his moments for the Jets.

Prediction: Bills 34, Jets 14

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Saints (5-3) at Titans (7-2)

Tennessee Titans receiver A.J. Brown makes a catch but is out of bounds in the end zone.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Titans by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

As the Rams discovered, the Titans are no joke — with or without Derrick Henry. Jeffrey Simmons can cause a lot of problems in the middle of that defensive front. QB inconsistency hurts the Saints.

Prediction: Titans 24, Saints 20

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Falcons (4-4) at Cowboys (6-2)

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott reacts after throwing a touchdown pass against the Denver Broncos.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Cowboys by 9. O/U: 54 1/2.

The Cowboys should look more like themselves after humbling loss to Denver last week. Atlanta is susceptible to the pass, although rookie A.J. Terrell is playing well. Matt Ryan keeps Falcons in it.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Falcons 24

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Lions (0-8) at Steelers (5-3)

Pittsburgh Steelers defensive end Cameron Heyward huddles the defense.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Steelers by 8 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Steelers have won four in a row; the Lions are still looking for their first win. Detroit has given some good teams problems, but they’ve been horrible at times too. Rest serves them well here … to a degree.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Lions 24

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Buccaneers (6-2) at Washington Football Team (2-6)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Anthony Nelson in action.

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Buccaneers by 9 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

This playoff matchup from 10 months ago is looking lopsided now. At least Washington has gotten healthier with a week off, but its defense is a big disappointment. Tom Brady gets on track.

Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Washington 20

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Panthers (4-5) at Cardinals (8-1)

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner against the San Francisco 49ers.

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Cardinals by 10 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Christian McCaffrey has returned, and knocked off some rust last week. The Panthers are desperate at quarterback, though, and that won’t serve them well against a really tough Arizona team.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers 17

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Vikings (3-5) at Chargers (5-3)

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert in action against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 53.

Justin Herbert’s passing game is back, and Chargers are back home. Vikings have a pretty good pass defense. The Chargers’ big challenge will be stopping Dalvin Cook, and they aren’t great vs. run.

Prediction: Vikings 28, Chargers 27

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Eagles (3-6) at Broncos (5-4)

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams runs against the Dallas Cowboys.

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2 . O/U: 45.

Broncos played beautifully at Dallas, and especially Denver’s secondary. That figures to give Jalen Hurts problems. Philadelphia might be able to move the ball on the ground but it won’t be enough.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Eagles 20

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Seahawks (3-5) at Packers (7-2)

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love throws.

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Packers by 3 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

This was a marquee game on paper, and still should be if Russell Wilson comes back from his finger injury in prime form. Still, that’s a lot to ask. Seahawks make it close but Green Bay holds on.

Prediction: Packers 28, Seahawks 24

Chiefs (5-4) at Raiders (5-3)

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr throws a pass for a touchdown against the New York Giants.

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Chiefs by 21/2. O/U: 511/2.

The Chiefs reshuffled their offensive line this season and aren’t the same dominating team we’ve seen the last couple of years, but the Raiders are dealing with one distraction after another.

Prediction: Chiefs 30, Raiders 28

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Rams (7-2) at 49ers (3-5)

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp runs with the ball.

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Rams by 4. O/U: 49.

49ers have done a good job establishing the run against the Rams, so that’s something to watch. But Sean McVay will have his team ready to rebound from Sunday’s ultra-flat outing against Tennessee.

Prediction: Rams 31, 49ers 24