Last offseason, coming off back-to-back wins over formerly domineering rival Ohio State, the Michigan Wolverines made a bold statement about their mindset for 2023. Instead of devoting an entire session of each practice to the Buckeyes, they created a “Beat Georgia” drill. The message was clear: Michigan finally knew it could handle Ohio State and had to switch focus to the two-time defending national champion Bulldogs to accomplish its ultimate goal.
As it turned out, the Wolverines were right about one thing: They vanquished the Buckeyes once again, and this time did it without head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was serving a suspension from the Big Ten relating to the NCAA’s investigation into the sign-stealing methods of former Michigan analyst Connor Stalions.
But what Harbaugh’s players didn’t account for was that someone else would take care of Georgia for them. It was Alabama that silenced the Bulldogs, throwing the College Football Playoff selection process into upheaval. The Wolverines will now face the Crimson Tide in the national semifinal at the Rose Bowl. Perhaps a “Beat the SEC” drill would have been a safer choice for Michigan, with alternating simulations for Georgia and Nick Saban’s Alabama behemoth, which will be looking for its unprecedented seventh national championship since 2009.
Michigan versus Alabama feels like one of those matchups that will have very little chance of attaining the hype that comes with two of the sport’s unquestioned blue-bloods meeting for the first time in its most iconic venue. But, we can hope, right?
Like a lot of teams, Michigan has benefited from stolen signs, but will the NCAA find the program went beyond the accepted methods of decoding signs?
The Wolverines, 13-0 and ranked No. 1 for the first time since they split the national championship in 1997, enter the game as favorites seemingly only among Las Vegas oddsmakers who see something different in this group, which has lost both of its previous CFP semis. The rest of the country sees Michigan as a program built only to beat Ohio State, a team without the speed and skill to outlast an SEC power like Alabama when everything is on the line.
If Michigan prevails on New Year’s Day, it crushes all remaining narratives that downgrade its success — including that this recent run is a product of a superior (and surreptitious) scouting system. The Wolverines would also advance one step away from winning the Big Ten its first national championship since 2014, ironically during a year in which conference leadership did everything it could to stop their ascent to the top.
For Alabama, this would just be one more CFP victory and point toward 2023 as Saban’s most impressive coaching job to date. The Crimson Tide were left for dead after losing to Texas in Tuscaloosa and barely beating South Florida the next week. This may not be a vintage Alabama juggernaut, but the Crimson Tide were good enough to beat Georgia over 60 minutes. Yes, it was no drill, and anyone who has watched this sport over the last 15 years would expect Alabama to respond by humbling Michigan and whichever of Texas or Washington awaits in Houston.
With all of those subplots in mind, here are five things to watch in this year’s Rose Bowl:
On one of the Wolverines’ last trips to the Rose Bowl, in 2005, Texas quarterback Vince Young was unstoppable, willing the Longhorns back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 38-37. Young carried the ball 21 times for 192 yards and four touchdowns, and Michigan fans have had nightmares ever since.
Well, Jalen Milroe may be the closest thing as a runner at the quarterback position that we’ve seen since Young, and it’s Michigan’s job to make sure he doesn’t take over the game like he did when he ran for 155 yards and four touchdowns in a win over Louisiana State.
For Michigan, the Vince Young game wasn’t an isolated occurrence. It has struggled with mobile quarterbacks for decades (there is no coincidence why Urban Meyer’s Ohio State offenses consistently blew by the Wolverines).
Michigan’s defense is a veteran unit that has seen a lot and won’t be spooked by anything — but the Big Ten schedule has not supplied it with any dynamic playmakers at the quarterback position.
The Wolverines’ physical and deep front should acquit itself well against designed quarterback runs. The bigger question will be how they guard against Milroe scrambling or pulling the ball down when a passing play breaks down. If Michigan’s safeties pay too much attention to Milroe running, he has the massive arm and speedy receivers to punish them over the top.
There’s a prevailing thought that J.J. McCarthy, Michigan’s junior signal caller, will need to have the “game of his life” against Alabama, and that may end up being true. But the Wolverines won at No. 10 Penn State and against Ohio State without asking McCarthy to go win it for them. The assumption is that Alabama’s defense, unlike the Big Ten foes, will be able to force Michigan offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore’s hand by containing running back Blake Corum. Yet, it’s hard to forget the Wolverines polishing off Penn State with 32 straight runs.
In that game, McCarthy was clearly playing hurt, and the Wolverines were struggling to protect him on drop-backs. Moore, the acting head coach, bet on his defense and Corum and won.
Against Ohio State, McCarthy looked marginally more healthy, and was able to make a few big plays with his running ability, which could be a preview of what he’ll aim to do against the Crimson Tide with a month to recover from his injury.
Alabama’s win over Georgia and Florida State’s victory over Louisville is creating quite a problem for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
Harbaugh loves McCarthy, who has a record of 25-1 as a starter, and has said McCarthy will be the Michigan quarterback all others are compared to (which of course demeans Harbaugh’s own legacy as a player). But nationally, McCarthy still has plenty to prove due to Michigan’s run-first attack.
Last season, McCarthy had a couple of brutal turnovers that led to Michigan falling behind early against Texas Christian. But he also nearly led an amazing comeback, throwing for 343 yards and rushing for 52 more.
It will be interesting to see what Harbaugh and Moore do with McCarthy against Alabama. There’s a sense that he has a next-level gear that he’s never had to show, but the Wolverines don’t tend to take big risks unless they have to.
Michigan and Alabama don’t just want to run the ball effectively. They expect to. In a game of this magnitude, it’s a pretty good bet the team with the most rushing yards will also be the team advancing to the title game.
Michigan has the game’s star tailback in Corum, who missed the TCU game last year with a season-ending knee injury. He hasn’t shown the same big-play explosion in 2023, averaging 4.7 yards per carry while being a consistent chain-mover in short-yardage situations. With 24 touchdowns, he’s rarely met a tough yard he doesn’t take.
Michigan has a couple of X-factors here in McCarthy and running back Donovan Edwards, who filled in for Corum last year and starred but, similar to Corum, hasn’t had the 2023 many expected from him. Yet, here they are in the CFP semifinal anyway.
Alabama is one of the few programs in today’s college football to routinely produce star running backs — see Derrick Henry and Najee Harris. This isn’t a backfield with a headliner, but Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams have combined for 1,364 yards and 11 touchdowns.
If Michigan is too concerned with Milroe, it will be up to Bama’s backs to punish the Wolverines.
It’s likely that both teams may have to pass to open up the run early.
There figures to be few easy yards for either team in the trenches, so the game could very well break on who breaks a big one.
For Alabama, wide receiver Isaiah Bond has shown a flair for the dramatic, catching Milroe’s 31-yard heave to the back corner of the end zone to beat Auburn. He’s the best bet to get behind the Michigan defense at some point.
With the Pac-12 disbanding and the College Football Playoff expanding, there will be fewer apocalyptic-level games at end of regular season.
For Michigan, wide receiver Roman Wilson has 11 touchdowns, but in the biggest moments of the win over Ohio State in 2022, McCarthy found Cornelius Johnson for long touchdowns.
It’s hard to imagine a Michigan wide receiver getting deep on Alabama’s NFL-ready defensive backfield, so look for the Wolverines to try to find a matchup they like with tight end Colston Loveland or the versatile Edwards out of the backfield.
More than anything, the matchup of two of the best coaches in football will define this game. Harbaugh has been a transformative force at every stop he’s made, from Stanford to the 49ers to Michigan, but he has not won the sport’s championship at either level. This is very likely his best shot to do it at Michigan, which is one reason why many predict he will leave for the NFL in January.
He won’t face a tougher task than facing Saban with a month to prepare. It certainly doesn’t bode well for Harbaugh that Michigan has lost six straight bowl games either.
But, facing Alabama, the Wolverines will feel like underdogs despite what the rankings and the oddsmakers say, and that could give them the mental edge they need to pull this off.
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