An annual congressional report says the U.S. budget deficit is likely to burst through the symbolic $1-trillion barrier this year despite a healthy economy.
The Congressional Budget Office report follows a burst of new spending last year and the repeal in December of several taxes used to help finance the Affordable Care Act. Those have combined to deepen the government’s deficit spiral well on into the future.
The annual CBO update of the government’s economic and fiscal health estimates a $1-trillion deficit for this fiscal year, which would bring the red ink above $1 trillion for the first time since 2012, when President Obama capped four consecutive years of $1 trillion-plus budget deficits.
But Obama’s deficits came as the U.S. economy recovered from the deep recession of 2007-09. The return of a trillion-dollar deficit now comes as the economy is running on all cylinders, with the CBO predicting that the jobless rate nationwide will average below 4% through at least 2022. The growth rate is predicted to hit an average 2.2% this year.
“The economy’s performance makes the large and growing deficit all the more noteworthy,” said CBO Director Phillip Swagel. “Changes in fiscal policy must be made to address the budget situation because our debt is growing on an unsustainable path.”
The government reported a $984-billion deficit for the 2019 budget year.
The recent surge in the deficit has followed passage of the 2017 Trump tax bill, which has failed to pay for itself with additional economic growth and revenues as promised by administration figures such as Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. The surge in deficits also follows a final rewrite last summer of a failed 2011 budget deal to increase spending of both defense and domestic programs.
Divided government isn’t helping the deficit picture as the Democratic-controlled House led the way in repealing $377-billion worth of Obamacare tax increases, including a so-called Cadillac tax on high-cost health plans. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), was also a driving force in last summer’s budget accord, which is expected to add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the coming decade.
The CBO report landed amid an intensifying presidential campaign in which concerns about the deficit are not really an issue. President Trump has promised to leave Social Security pensions and Medicare benefits off the table as his administration seeks ways to blunt the political effect of the eyepopping deficit figures.
The administration’s budget is being released next month but is likely to be largely ignored, especially as election-year politics take over.