Propaganda tool? Bargaining chip? How North Korea might use detained U.S. soldier
So what will North Korea do about the first U.S. soldier in decades to flee into its territory? Its official media have yet to mention Pvt. Travis King, there’s little precedent for his situation, and guesses about the country’s next steps vary widely.
Unauthorized crossings of the two Koreas’ heavily fortified border are extremely rare. The few Americans who crossed into North Korea in the past were soldiers, missionaries, human rights advocates or those simply curious about one of the world’s most cloistered societies. North Korea has used a varied playbook in its handling of them.
Defecting soldiers, like Charles Jenkins or James Dresnok in the 1960s, were treated as propaganda assets, showcased in leaflets and films projecting anti-U.S. hatred and praising the North Korean regime.
Other Americans were detained, criticized and handed harsh penalties based on confessions of anti-state activities that they later said were coerced. Behind-the-scenes pleas and lengthy backdoor negotiations followed, and usually a detainee was freed, often flown home with a high-profile U.S. official who traveled to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, to secure the release.
None of the previous cases, however, seems relevant as a forecast of what lies ahead with King.
The length of his stay will probably depend on whether Pyongyang finds a way to spin his story for its propaganda, said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and director of the North Korea-focused 38 North website.
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It’s unclear whether the North Korea of today would treat King similarly to how it did Jenkins and Dresnok, whose crossings happened six decades ago. And King might be less ideal as propaganda material.
Jenkins walked into North Korea in 1965 to avoid combat duty in Vietnam, which made it easier for Pyongyang to paint him as a disillusioned U.S. soldier who escaped evil imperialists and chose to live in North Korea’s “socialist paradise.” There’s a big difference with King, who was struggling with legal problems and facing disciplinary action and a possible discharge before he bolted into North Korea.
“If they decide that he’s not a good story, they may just return him so that this doesn’t exacerbate already fragile relations” with the United States, Town said. “This is largely a wait-and-see, as there’s just so little precedent for it.”
But Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said it’s very unlikely North Korea would pass up the propaganda value of a U.S. soldier who voluntarily entered the country. While King’s immediate value would be for propaganda, Pyongyang could also seek opportunities to use him as a bargaining chip to wrest concessions from Washington, he said.
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It’s possible North Korea may link King’s release with its demand that the U.S. scale back its military activities with South Korea. Washington has increased its deployment of strategic assets like bombers and nuclear-capable submarines since 2022 in a show of force against North Korea’s nuclear threat.
North Korea’s goal would be to create a dilemma for Washington in “choosing between [strengthening] U.S.-South Korean nuclear deterrence strategies and protecting its own citizen,” Yang said. “That would create challenges for South Korea, which has been focusing on strengthening nuclear deterrence strategies with the United States.”
Thae Yong-ho, a former diplomat at the North Korean Embassy in London who defected to South Korea in 2016 and is now a lawmaker, said North Korea has never released any U.S. soldier who walked into the country voluntarily. But it’s also unclear whether North Korea would want to hold King for long, considering the likely low level of U.S. military intelligence he would provide, his low rank and the high costs of managing his life.
“A specialized security and surveillance team must be organized, an interpreter must be arranged, a designated vehicle and driver must be provided and accommodation must be arranged. ... You also need to indoctrinate him into the North Korean system, so you will need to organize a team of specialized teachers and a curriculum,” Thae wrote on Facebook.
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“Marriage is another problem as North Korea values pure bloodlines and it would be highly difficult to kidnap foreigners from abroad, like they did in the past,” Thae added. He was apparently referring to Jenkins, who married a Japanese woman abducted by North Korean agents in 1978.
Park Won Gon, a professor at Seoul’s Ewha University, said the high tensions between Washington and Pyongyang would complicate diplomatic efforts to bring King home.
During times of better relations, North Korea released American detainees rather swiftly and easily.
In 2018, North Korea released Bruce Byron Lowrance a month after he entered the country illegally through China. Lowrance’s relatively quick deportation came in the afterglow of a highly orchestrated summit between then-President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June that year, where they issued vague goals about a nuclear-free Korean peninsula and vowed to improve ties.
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Weeks ahead of that summit, North Korea released three American detainees who returned home on a plane with then-Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo. That diplomacy collapsed in 2019, and the current environment seems unfavorable for King’s early release.
Starting in 2022, Kim ramped up his weapons-testing activity, which prompted the U.S. to expand its military exercises and nuclear contingency strategies with South Korea. Washington will probably try to communicate with Pyongyang over the U.S.-led United Nations Command, which administers the southern side of the inter-Korean border village, and through the so-called New York channel using North Korea’s diplomatic mission to the U.N.
But, considering the prolonged diplomatic freeze, it could be quite a while before the U.S. is able to send a high-profile official to Pyongyang to secure King’s release, if at all.
South Korea’s spy agency says North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s disclosure of his daughter in recent public events was likely an attempt to show his people that one of his children would one day inherit his power.
“The only thing that’s certain for now is that North Korea will handle King entirely the way it wants to — 100%,” said Park. He also believes it’s likely that North Korea will seek ways to use King for propaganda and diplomatic leverage.
“When an American goes into North Korea, they usually are used for political purposes, regardless of whether they want it or not,” he said.
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