Senate chairman optimistic about getting bin Laden

Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Monday that he is optimistic the United States will capture or kill accused terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden before the beginning of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, in mid-November.

“I would say that I am optimistic that we will be able to accomplish that objective and hope that we can accomplish it within the next 30 days,” said Graham, Florida’s senior senator.

While urging Americans to remain patient during heightened security at home, and calling on the FBI to offer suggestions for people the next time a warning of possible threats is issued, the senator also downplayed the risk for individuals.

“The chances of any individual American being affected by a terrorist are about equal to the chances of an individual American being run over by a rhinoceros,” Graham said.

As chairman of the Intelligence Committee, Graham is privy to information that he cannot discuss publicly. Asked whether he has seen specific information that supports his confidence about capturing or killing bin Laden within 30 days, Graham said yes.

What makes the next 30 days most critical, the Democrat says, are the commencement of Ramadan on Nov. 16 and onset of a harsh winter in Afghanistan.

The ninth month of the Muslim calendar, Ramadan is a time of fasting and intense worship -- a holy period, Graham notes, in which Western forces scaled back military operations during the Persian Gulf War.

Graham said he expects the military to exercise similar restraint in its Afghan campaign, as the United States strives to maintain a fragile coalition of Muslim nations in its war against terrorism.

“I think we are entering a critical stage,” Graham said in an interview with Tallahassee-based reporters. “During the Persian Gulf War, we were very sensitive to that period not to be engaged in military conflict, and I think there will be a similar reticence to have large-scale military operations during that religious period” in Afghanistan.

“To me, that says that the next 30 days before [Ramadan and winter] will be significant in terms of this campaign to locate bin Laden,” Graham said.

At the same time, Graham says, Americans must be prepared for an extended war against terrorism that will not stop with the disablement of bin Laden, leader of the al-Qaeda network.

“They are independent contractors of evil,” Graham said. “To me, the key to this war is going to be the staying power of the American people.

“This is a war that is going to take a long time.”