Who will win the Nobel Prize in Literature?

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One of the unexpected contenders for the Nobel Prize for literature is musician Bob Dylan. On Monday, Ladbrokes listed his odds of winning at 25-1. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

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Norwegian writer Karl Ove Knausgaard, known for his multi-volume autobiography, makes his first appearance on the list of potential Nobel Prize winners. (Ulf Andersen / Getty Images)

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Austrian writer Peter Handke, right, receiving the Ibsen Award, is in ninth place in the race for the Nobel Prize, according to Ladbrokes. (Fredrik Varfjell / EPA)

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American author Joyce Carol Oates, a Nobel Prize contender, was in 12th place Monday, according to Ladbrokes. (Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert / Getty Images)

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Israeli novelist Amos Oz has odds of 33-1 to win the Nobel Prize, Ladbrokes says. (Vadim Ghirda / Associated Press)

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Syrian poet Adonis is frequently considered a candidate for the Nobel Prize; this year oddsmakers put him in fourth place. (Charly Triballeau / AFP/Getty Images)

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Algerian writer Assia Djebar’s odds for getting the Nobel Prize are currently at 14/1. (Olivier Laban-Mattei / AFP/Getty Images)

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Albanian writer Ismail Kadare is currently ranked fifth in the race for the Nobel Prize. (Ulf Andersen / Getty Images)

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Oddsmakers put French writer Patrick Modiano in sixth place in the race for the Nobel Prize. (Bertrand Rindoff Petroff/Getty Images)

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Norwegian author Jon Fosse, one of the most-performed playwrights in Europe, is among the top 10 contenders for the Nobel Prize. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

By Carolyn Kellogg

Oct. 6, 2014 12:45 PM PT

The Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced Thursday in Sweden, and the guessing game is on for who the recipient might be. Could it be Haruki Murakami? Philip Roth? Bob Dylan?

The Nobel Prize is awarded to a living writer for his or her body of work. Last year, Canadian short story writer Alice Munro, who had long been considered a possible contender, was named the recipient of the world’s most prestigious literary award.

The British betting house Ladbrokes takes wagers on the race; as of this writing, they have Haruki Murakami and Ngugi Wa Thiong’o tied in first place at 4/1.

While fans can watch the progress in an actual physical race between runners or cars or horses, the deliberations for the Nobel are conducted entirely in secret. Which means that the contenders who make the Ladbrokes list may be more the result of rumor and popular opinion than anything else.

That’s what happened with Bob Dylan, who for the last few years has made the list as a long-shot favorite. Placing more for his lyrical output than his books, Dylan is currently on the Ladbroke’s list at 25/1. But will he win? Probably not.

American writers Philip Roth (12/1), Joyce Carol Oates (16/1), Thomas Pynchon (25/1), Don Delillo (33/1) and Cormac McCarthy (50/1) are on the Ladbrokes list.

It also includes names far less familiar to most American readers: Belarusian journalist Svetlana Aleksijevitj (6/1), Polish poet Adam Zagajewski (20/1), Egyptian writer Nawal El Saadawi (20/1), Chinese poet Bei Dao (25/1), and South African novelist Karel Schoeman (33/1).

The Nobel Prize is scheduled to be awarded to one of these writers -- or any other -- Thursday morning.

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