With Oscar nominations coming Thursday morning, we gathered The Envelope's Buzzmeter panelists -- Entertainment Weekly's Anthony Breznican, Fandango's Dave Karger, Anne Thompson from Thompson on Hollywood, the Los Angeles Times' Betsy Sharkey and Glenn Whipp, and Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil -- for some thoughts about what might transpire.
In the first part of their summit, the panel debated the fate of this year's older leading actor contenders, gauged the depth of love for "12 Years a Slave" and considered what kind of Oscar bump "The Wolf of Wall Street" might have received from all the controversy surrounding it.
Now they throw around possibilities for snubs and surprises as well as offering up a potential nomination that would make their day.
When nominations are announced Thursday, what will be the movie or performance leading the SNUBBED headlines?
Thompson: Snubbed is likely to be guild also-ran "Inside Llewyn Davis" across the board, including the Coens in director and screenplay, and actors Oscar Isaac and John Goodman. Cinematography is its best shot at a nomination, despite an estimated $4.5 million in spending by CBS Films in the N.Y. and L.A. Times alone.
Breznican: Meryl Streep for "August: Osage County" seems like the "sure-thing" that could easily end up not happening.
O'Neil: "Redford skunked!" will probably be the big headline, but that could also happen to Meryl Streep. There's little support for "August: Osage County," but it's hard to imagine the academy would slap her now. They even nominated her for fluff like "One True Thing" and "Music of the Heart."
Karger: All the actors from "The Wolf of Wall Street."
Whipp: The academy could bypass both Meryl Streep and Robert Redford. At least they'll always have memories of that farm in Africa.
Conversely, what film or performance currently flying a bit under the radar do you think might surprise with a nomination?
Breznican: I wouldn't have thought "Dallas Buyers Club" would break into the best picture race amid all those behemoths, but enthusiasm among voters has skyrocketed in recent weeks.
Whipp: Ron Howard's racing movie, "Rush," didn't find the audience it deserved, but enough academy members might have seen it to score deserved nominations for Daniel Brühl in supporting actor and cinematographer Anthony Dod Mantle.
Thompson: "Dallas Buyers Club" may surprise with a strong showing: best picture, screenplay, actor, supporting actor, costumes.
O'Neil: Watch out for Sally Hawkins for "Blue Jasmine." She got a Globe nom. Jennifer Garner gives warmth and humanity to "Dallas Buyers Club," and voters may embrace her in return.
Karger: "Philomena" for best picture.
What film or performance would bring the biggest smile to your face if nominated?
Thompson: If Brie Larson landed a lead actress nomination for Cinedigm SXSW pickup "Short Term 12," which she would have if Fox Searchlight, Sony Pictures Classics or Harvey Weinstein had been behind it, I would be happy. But in this world, a movie does need campaign money to land a nomination.
Breznican: A screenplay mention for "Labor Day," a complex and emotional narrative that I think was under-appreciated at the Toronto festival and never got the awards push it should have.
Sharkey: I would love to see Scarlett Johansson get a supporting actress nomination. A performance by any measure, even without her physical presence.
Karger: Harrison Ford in "42." A strong performance in a wonderful film that's been unfairly overlooked so far.
O'Neil: If "The Great Gatsby" gets nominated for anything, I'll be happy. It's a far, far better film than the critics conceded.
Whipp: Going down with the ship and Redford here. After bouncing between saying he was going to win the Oscar back in October to pondering a lead actor slate that probably won't include him, I'd love to hear his name called Thursday morning.
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