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Obama’s veepstakes

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Spend a little time with Barack Obama on his wide-open vice president hunt. There are plenty of plausible candidates, and the eventual choice could easily be somebody nobody is talking about. Why the unpredictability? In part, it's because a veep search usually focuses on the runner-up in the primary, but in this case almost nobody believes the runner-up will get chosen.

But the main reason is that Obama is an unconventional candidate. He has novel strengths -- enormous appeal to the young, African Americans and some crossover Republicans -- and he also has potential weaknesses with usually solid Democratic Party constituencies: white blue-collar Democrats, women and Jews.


FOR THE RECORD:
Veep list: An Op-Ed chart comparing possible Democratic vice presidential candidates described Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) as a global-warming denier. He does not deny global warming. The photo labeled as Hagel was of Mike Johanns, Republican candidate for the Senate in Nebraska. —

So Obama has to decide: A veep who fills in a weakness (like Joe Biden) or one who accentuates a strength (like Michael Bloomberg)? To make things trickier, the veep candidates with the biggest upside also carry the biggest risk.

 Appeals toAlienatesRisk factorBottom line

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton
D-New York
Older white women who dislike Obama but don't despise himIndependents, Republicans, crossovers, misogynistsHusband Bill buck-raking, possibly still tomcattingCold day in hell

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius
D-Kansas
Women who aren't Clinton die-hardsClinton die-hards who believe that any non-Hillary woman is a slap in the faceNo foreign policy experience, so-so public speakerNon-Clinton-supporting feminists probably aren't a big enough constituency

Sen. Jack Reed
D-Rhode Island
Veterans, Catholics, intellectuals, foreign policy votersModerates? (Reed is liberal)Low — he's a former Army Ranger and highly respected foreign policy expertNot a bipartisan pick but lots of military/foreign policy cred; combines the demeanor of a professor with the name of an action hero

Sen. Joe Biden
D-Delaware
White men, security moms, foreign policy/experience voters, fans of the verbally incontinentIndian Americans ("You cannot go to a 7-Eleven or Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.")Vetted, respected, but gaffe prone (see previous)Odds-on favorite; would make a strong foreign policy spokesman

Sen. Chuck Hagel
R-Nebraska
Veterans, crossover Republicans, bipartisanship buffsIsrael supporters, low-information voters who don't want a 19th century German philosopher a heartbeat away from the presidencyHow does Obama run with a right-wing Republican who disagrees with him on nearly everything?Would be very tricky — what if Obama dies and an anti-abortion, tax-cuts-for-the-rich-loving, global-warming skeptic is suddenly president?

Gov. Tim Kaine
D-Virginia
Virginians (or so it's claimed), CatholicsNobodyNo foreign policy experience, short resumeFirst-term governor who won on former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's coattails — a meh candidate

Sen. Claire McCaskill
D-Missouri
See Kathleen SebeliusSee Kathleen SebeliusLike Obama, a first-term senatorSee Kathleen Sebelius

Sen. Jim Webb
D-Virginia
Veterans, Virginians, Scots-Irish, angry white men, crossover Republicans, Southern Civil War buffsWomen, plutocrats who are ripping off the common manShort-tempered, lone-wolf typeHigh-risk, high-reward choice

Former Sen. Sam Nunn
D-Georgia
Georgians, moderates, conservatives, Beltway establishment types, white males in need of reassuranceGays, liberalsEverything Nunn has ever done in this life has been about minimizing riskExpert on nuclear proliferation, could put Georgia into play

Sen. Evan Bayh
D-Indiana
Clinton supporters, moderates, insomniacsNobodySo un-risky that his selection would create the risk of a backlash from a bored and disappointed press corpsLow-risk, low-reward choice

Gov. Bill Richardson
D-New Mexico
New Mexicans, Old Mexicans, goatee aficionados, goofballsNativistsSurprisingly high — Richardson is gaffe-prone and less serious than his reputation suggestsBetter on paper than in reality

Former Sen. Tom Daschle
D-South Dakota
White malesNobodyWorking as a lobbyist, which complicates Obama's anti-Washington themeBetter candidate for chief of staff

Gov. Brian Schweitzer
D-Montana
Downscale whites, gun owners, populistsShort career in tiny state = few enemiesNo foreign-policy expierence, first-term governorJim Webb lite?

Mayor Michael Bloomberg
I-New York City
Jews, upscale independents, moderate Republicans, the vertically challengedPopulistsLittle foreign policy experience, on GOP VP lists too, black guy + wealthy Jewish New Yorker might freak out Middle AmericaCould pour huge sums into campaign; like Webb, huge upside plus huge downside

Former Vice President Al Gore
D-Tennessee
Democratic partisans, intellectualsRepublican partisans, oil, coal and auto industriesSteps on Obama's "let's not argue about the past" appealHas ruled out a run but might be a good way to consolidate the Democratic base

Sen. Olympia Snowe
R-Maine
Women, independents, moderate RepublicansMisogynists, Clinton die-hardsBlack guy + woman = too much change?Nobody's discussing Snowe; who knows if she'd take it; but she brings a lot to the table

Jonathan Chait, a contributing editor to Opinion and a senior editor at the New Republic, is the author of "The Big Con: The True Story of How Washington Got Hoodwinked and Hijacked by Crackpot Economics."

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