Racing! Going to be an interesting Belmont

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we congratulate Justify on winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Justify’s win in the Preakness Stakes added a lot of intrigue to the Belmont Stakes. I was among the ones who thought he was invincible and would handily put away this field. But, when he emerged from the fog, he looked vulnerable.

I, along with a few other reporters, were standing with Bob Baffert watching on a small 24-inch monitor in the paddock. He let out a little “Uh, oh,” when he saw Justify wasn’t running away with things. But, the colt held on for the win.

The optimist view is that Justify actually won the Preakness Stakes in a bounce (bad race following a good one) and that he’s so good he can win a Triple Crown race not at his best.

Baffert explained that American Pharoah’s Kentucky Derby race was not very good. It wasn’t until he won the Preakness that he became the star he became. OK, I can buy that. Maybe this was Justify’s bad race.

Or, then there’s the idea that we have overhyped this lightly raced colt. You can count me among the guilty if this is true. Hopefully, we’ll get to find out the answers in three weeks.

I have to say, neither Mike Smith nor Baffert showed any great concern in the post-race news conference. Then again, we didn’t to see the race because of the fog. Might as well have a re-enactment with badly drawn cartoon horses to explain what happened.

But, the most interesting question is if the ownership group of WinStar Farm and China Horse Club, which owns both Justify and Audible, will run Audible in the Belmont Stakes off five weeks rest. Elliott Walden, the managing partner of the syndicate, smiled when I asked him that question.

“I knew somebody was going to ask me that,” he said. “No thoughts today, probably make a decision late in the week. We’ll see. I’m non-committal both ways.”

I’m hoping they do run him because if they don’t and Justify wins, then some will view it as a somewhat tainted Triple Crown because he didn’t face the best because of compromised ownership interest. Walden is a smart guy, let’s hope he chooses the right legacy.

Now for a full report on the race, (Just click here).

Want to know more about the race and what Tim Ritvo thinks about his first year at Santa Anita, (Just click here).

Santa Anita review

In Santa Anita’s lone stakes race on Saturday, Cordiality won the $100,000 Fran’s Valentine Stakes, going a mile on the turf for Cal-bred fillies and mares. The winning jockey was Gary Stevens who picked up the mount when Tyler Baze was taken to the hospital after being involved in a spill in the sixth race. Baze’s mount, Fast Munny, suffered a fatal heart attack in the stretch, throwing Baze, who was taken to the hospital but released two hours later.

Stevens had been riding in Oaklawn but returned to Santa Anita on Thursday.

“I was a little concerned she might be a little rank [Saturday] because of the trouble line (“Pulled. Steadied early) in the Form from her last race,” Stevens said. “But [trainer] Mark [Glatt] said he was confident she’d settle. That’s the only reason she was rank last time was because it was her first time running down the hill in a long time.”

Cordiality finished 1 ¾ lengths in front of She Carmelita. Cheekaboo, coming off a year’s layoff, finished third.

Cordiality paid $11.20, $5.40 and $4.00.

Santa Anita preview

It’s one of those hangover-after-a-big-day cards with nine races starting at 12:30 p.m. As a matter of fact, most race tracks use all their bullets on Saturday of Preakness day. Santa Anita used up a lot of horses with a 12-race card.

There are four turf races, three of them down the hill. The one that’s not is the ninth race, the feature. It’s the $100,000 Crystal Water Stakes for Cal-bred 3-year-olds and up going a mile on the turf.

Veteran campaigner Ashleylovessugar, a 7-year-old gelding, is the morning-line favorite at 7-2. He’s won 10 of 24 races lifetime. He’ll be running for trainer Peter Eurton and ridden by Flavien Prat, who was in Baltimore on Saturday riding just one horse on the undercard. Ashleylovessugar hasn’t raced since August when he was caught in the Del Mar Handicap. That race is 3/8ths of a mile longer than Sunday’s.

Rye, whose last race was a third in the 1 3/4-mile San Juan Capistrano, really gets shorted up for this race. He’s at 4-1.

The field sizes, in order: 8, 5 (yikes!), 8, 6, 11, 8, 12, 7, 12.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Pimlico: $100,000 James W. Murphy Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles (originally 1 mile on turf). Winner: Tap Daddy ($5.80 to win)

Pimlico: $250,000 Grade 2 Dixie Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles (originally 1 1/16 miles on turf). Winner: Fire Away ($4.60)

Gulfstream: $100,000 Musical Romance Stakes, Fla-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Stormy Embrace ($5.60)

Pimlico: $200,000 Chick Lang Stakes, 3 year olds, 6 furlongs. Winner: Mitole ($2.80)

Pimlico: Grade 3 $150,000 Gallorette Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Ultra Brat ($5.40)

Pimlico: Grade 3 $150,000 Maryland Sprint Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Switzerland ($7.80)

Pimlico: $100,000 The Very One Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs (originally 5 furlongs on the turf). Winner: Girls Know Best ($4.00)

Woodbine: Grade 3 $125,000 Selene Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Miss Mo Mentum ($12.50)

Churchill: Grade 3 $100,000 Louisville Handicap, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Vetori Kin ($8.60)

Belmont: $100,000 Grade 3 Soaring Softly Stakes, fillies 3 year olds, 7 furlongs on turf. Winner: Nootka Sound ($10.40)

Pimlico: $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Ax Man ($3.20)

Arlington: Grade 3 $100,000 Arlington Matron Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Princess La Quinta ($8.80)

Pimlico: $1.5 million Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 3/16 miles. Winner: Justify ($2.80)

Santa Anita: $100,000 Fran’s Valentine Stakes, Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Cordiality ($11.20)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

1:57 Woodbine: $100,000 Ballade Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Scotty’s Model (2-1)

4:30 Santa Anita: $100,000 Crystal Water Stakes, Cal-breds 3 and up, one mile on the turf. Favorite: Ashleylovessugar (7-2)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 12 Camino Del Paraiso (6-1)

Must overcome far outside post but always been a fan of this gelding based in Northern California with the O.J. Jauregui barn. Ended a long drought with an easy win over the Golden Gate synthetic last time but has run well over this course and can spring a minor upset if he works out any kind of trip.

Saturday’s result: Best Two Minutes (7-2) got a good trip but couldn't make impact on the winner and was all out to be second at the wire.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

FIFTH RACE: No. 5 Mayas Signature (2-1)

She ran much better than her 20-1 debut odds when dropping a head photo after a sluggish start from the outside post where she veered out several lanes early. Filly leveled nicely midway and finished with a rush while one length clear of the third horse. I would make exacta boxes with #9 Seein Starz and #1 Separatefromothers. The latter know both had excuses in their debuts.

Final thoughts

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And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

LORI'S ATTITUDE had good early speed and dueled between horses then a bit off the rail leaving the hill and into the stretch, fought back along the inside in the drive, inched away under urging in deep stretch and held. HOLY MOSEY chased a bit off the rail then inside into the stretch, split horses in deep stretch and finished well. RED LIVY (IRE) sped to the early lead off the rail, dueled three deep then outside the winner, fought back alongside that one in the stretch and held third. GIRL DOWNSTAIRS chased outside a rival then off the rail, came out into the stretch and was edged for the show. GIANT MONGOLIAN chased outside a rival then off the rail, came out into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. LITTLE BIT LOVELY went up inside to duel for the lead then stalked along the rail leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. Rail on hill at zero.

CARNIVOROUS had speed between horses then dueled outside the runner-up throughout, took a short lead into the stretch and gamely prevailed under left handed urging. LUCK'S ROYAL FLUSH sped to the early lead, dueled inside throughout, fought back along the fence in the stretch and continued willingly to the wire. TAKEO SQUARED bobbled at the start, chased inside, split horses on the turn, came out some in the stretch and gained the show. MR BINGLEY had speed between horses then stalked a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn and lacked a rally in the drive. TAKAHIRO'S DREAM four wide early, chased outside then off the rail on the turn and into the stretch, drifted in some in the lane, was between horses in deep stretch and did not rally. MY LIL CHAMP broke slowly, settled off the rail, angled in on the turn, went around a rival late and was not a threat. ACCLAMATION KING between foes early, chased outside a rival then three deep on the turn and off the inside into the stretch, drifted in from the whip nearing midstretch and weakened.

CATFISH HUNTER had speed between horses then dueled outside a rival, took the lead past midway on the turn, inched away into the stretch and drew off under a crack of the whip nearing the sixteenth pole and steady handling. CARAY stalked three deep between horses then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and gained the place. TWO HAIL MARYS close up stalking the pace between horses on the backstretch and turn, continued just off the rail into the stretch, came out in midstretch and edged rivals for the show three deep on the line. POLITY broke a bit slowly, went up inside to stalk the pace, came out into the stretch and was edged for third between foes late. INSUBORDINATION had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and weakened in the stretch but was edged late for the show. IN MY SIGHT stalked four wide on the backstretch and three deep on the turn, continued off the inside into the stretch and weakened in the drive.

MONGOLIAN HUMOR chased inside then outside a rival on the backstretch and second turn, bid three deep into the stretch to gain the lead, kicked clear and drifted in some and held under urging. CONFORMATION drifted three deep into the first turn then angled in and settled outside a rival, found the inside on the backstretch and second turn, swung three wide into the stretch and edged a rival for the place. CALIFORNIA BREEZE broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then inside, continued a bit of the fence to the stretch, split horses in midstretch and was edged for second. EYE OF THE RIVER pulled between horses early, stalked outside a rival then off the rail, bid between foes into the stretch, steadied in tight in upper stretch and lacked the needed late kick. TROPHY BRIDLE broke a bit slowly, angled in and settled off the pace inside, went outside rivals in the stretch then improved position toward the inside. INTERNATIONAL DIVA (IRE) chased inside then outside a rival, went three deep leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. CEE SAM'S GIRL unhurried outside a rival early, continued alongside that one on the backstretch and second turn and between foes into the stretch and could not summon the necessary late kick. FLUORESCENT saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside into the stretch, steadied in tight off heels in midstretch, split horses in deep stretch and could not offer the needed response. MAJESTIC DESIGN had speed outside foes then four wide, inched clear and angled in, set the pace inside, dueled into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. DESERT APPEAL pulled between foes early, angled in and chased outside a rival, went three deep into and on the second turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

JUST BE HELD a step slow into stride, sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, responded when headed into the stretch, inched away under urging again in midstretch and won clear under a hold late. MYRCELLA angled in and stalked off the rail, bid outside the winner on the turn, put a head in front into the stretch, then could not match that one in the final furlong while clearly second best. MAJESTIC DIVA stalked three deep on the backstretch and outside a rival on the turn and bested the others. OH SCATTY OH was in a good position stalking the pace between horses then inside on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. PIRATE FLAG broke a step slowly, chased inside, went outside a rival on the turn and a bit off the rail into the stretch and lacked a further response. RED WHITE 'N PEACH bobbled in a slow start, settled outside a rival, dropped back off the rail and gave way. JEWELOF CALIFORNIA saved ground chasing the pace, dropped back on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch.

CATALINA CRUISER a step slow to begin and bumped with a rival, had speed between horses then dueled inside, inched away under urging past midstretch and won clear. BEST TWO MINUTES stalked outside on the backstretch, bid three deep on the turn and until midstretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong but edged a rival for the place. HORSE GREEDY prompted the pace three deep then outside the winner into the turn and between horses on the turn and until midstretch and was edged for second. SWISS MINISTER a step slow to begin, pulled some and chased inside, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and did not rally. STRINGENT close up stalking the pace inside on the backstretch and turn, weakened in the drive. SIR SAMSON between horses early, chased off the rail then outside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch and also weakened. FAST MUNNY chased outside a rival, dropped back and angled in leaving the turn, gave way and was eased in the final furlong then fell nearing the finish and was vanned off.

SO LONG SAILOR saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside in a bit tight in midstretch, gained the advantage in deep stretch and gamely prevailed under urging. HIGHLY DISTORTED had good early speed a bit off the rail then dueled inside, battled outside the winner in the final furlong and continued willingly. ENGLANDER stalked off the rail then four wide, angled in alongside a rival leaving the hill, came out into the stretch and edged a foe for third. JIMMY CHILA in a good position stalking the pace between horses then a bit off the rail into the stretch and was edged for the show. CAPALL stalked five wide then four wide midway on the hill, came three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. FACTS MATTER pressed the pace outside the runner-up, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. IMPLICITLY chased between horses then four wide on the hill, continued three deep leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. ALFAREED broke slowly, settled a bit off the rail chasing the pace to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SUPER CLASSIC pulled his way between horses chasing the pace, continued a bit off the rail nearing the stretch and was not a threat. LITTLEBITAMEDAL between horses early, chased inside to the stretch and also weakened. WORTHY TURK settled three deep then chased outside a rival leaving the hill, came out into the stretch and did not rally. CALIFORNIA KING stalked between horses then inside leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened. Rail on hill at zero.

KOCHEES stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the turn, came out five wide into the stretch, rallied under urging while drifting in to gain the lead in deep stretch and won clear. KETOS stalked outside then went up four wide on the turn to gain the lead, inched away and angled in off the rail into the stretch, kicked clear, drifted in and could not hold off the winner. EIGHTY THREE a half step slow into stride, settled outside a rival, came out on the turn and five wide into the stretch, drifted in some and gained the show. COASTLINE saved ground chasing the pace, split horses leaving the turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. BARGAINING had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. PAPA TURF saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. PAPA PAPA PAPA dueled three deep then between foes leaving the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. BURN ME TWICE had good early speed and dueled between horses, dropped back into the stretch and gave way.

CORDIALITY angled in and stalked a bit off the rail then inside, bid outside the runner-up on the second turn to gain the lead, battled outside that one in the stretch and inched away late under urging. SHY CARMELITA sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, fought back along the rail leaving the second turn and in the stretch but could not quite match the winner late. CHEEKABOO saved ground chasing the pace, split horses in midstretch and edged rivals for the show. DESERT STEEL chased outside a rival, came out into the stretch and was outfinished for third. BARBARA BEATRICE settled three deep into and on the first turn then chased a bit off the rail, came out in the stretch and was outkicked for a minor award. SPEAKERS took back early, settled a bit off the rail, came out leaving the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. HALO DARLIN saved ground stalking the pace, steadied sharply when crowded in upper stretch and did not rally. MOONLESS SKY pulled between horses and steadied on the first turn, chased outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. HOW ABOUT ZERO angled in and chased outside a rival, ducked inward in upper stretch and also weakened.

NOVA dueled six wide on the backstretch and four wide on the turn and into the stretch, drifted in outside the runner-up in the stretch and gamely prevailed under urging. IRON CURTAIN had good early speed and dueled inside throughout, fought back along the rail through the stretch and continued gamely to the end. PERFECT WAGER settled off the pace inside, cut the corner into the stretch, was briefly crowded in midstretch then split foes past midstretch to gain the show. NORTH COUNTY GUY chased off the rail, came out leaving the turn and five wide into the stretch and was edged for third. BLESS HIS HEART broke slowly and was squeezed, settled off the rail then outside on the turn, came six wide into the stretch and put in a late bid. GEOCAS DREAM saved ground stalking the pace, tried to come out in midstretch then angled back in and lacked the needed rally. POISE TO STRIKE dueled between horses, fought back into the stretch and weakened. FOR THE HUSTLE pressed the pace four wide between horses on the backstretch and three deep between foes on the turn and also weakened. BRITE SIERRA squeezed some at the start, settled off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn and failed to menace. CALIE VIEW dropped back off the rail and settled wide on the backstretch, angled in on the turn and was not a threat. IRISH BALLAD dueled between horses, dropped back and stalked on the turn and had little left for the stretch. CYCLOLITE prompted the pace five wide between horses, stalked outside on the turn and four wide into the stretch and gave way. HAND TIMED.

TWO THIRTY FIVE saved ground chasing the pace, slipped through inside to bid in the lane, gained the lead a sixteenth out and gamely prevailed under urging. IKE WALKER dueled outside a rival, took the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch then battled outside the winner to the wire. SHEER FLATTERY chased inside then between foes into and on the second turn and outside a rival into the stretch and held third. SWAYZE stalked between horses then outside, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the show. ARCH PRINCE stalked four wide then three deep, continued four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally. MAGICAL MYSTERY settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail, angled in on the backstretch, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. DOWNTOWNER stalked three deep between horses then off the rail on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and weakened. PLUM DANDY sped to the early lead, dueled inside, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. KID CHARMING broke slowly, angled in and settled inside then a bit off the rail to the stretch and failed to menace.

KY. COLONEL chased inside then between foes leaving the backstretch, was in a bit tight early on the second turn, came out four wide into the stretch ,rallied under urging between foes in the final furlong to get up on the wire. BROKEN UP chased inside, came out leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, took a short lead three wide in deep stretch and was edged on the line. YES YES YES chased outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and five wide into the stretch and got up for the show. SECRETO PRIMERO stalked three deep then outside a rival, bid outside the pacesetter on the second turn, took a short lead in midstretch, fought back between foes in deep stretch and was outkicked late for third. BOURBON SOUL chased three deep then inside on the second turn and into the stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. GENERAL IKE had speed four wide then inched away, set the pace off the rail then inside on the backstretch, battled inside leaving the second turn and in the stretch and weakened late. BANZE NO OESTE (BRZ) pulled a bit off the rail and was in tight into the first turn, went up three deep into the second turn and five wide into the stretch and was outfinished. CROWN THE KITTEN chased between horses, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TRIFECTA saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and could not offer the necessary late response. MOST DETERMINED squeezed some at the start, settled just off the rail then inside to the stretch and was not a threat. LOS GATOS angled in and stalked off the rail, dropped back between horses on the second turn and weakened.