Rise of the Politician Could Be the Sequel

In his most famous role, Arnold Schwarzenegger plays a merciless killer robot in dark sunglasses who sprays bullets at people from a vast arsenal of guns.

Now, the Hollywood icon who built his tough-guy image as “The Terminator” is pondering whether to drop his 33-year film career to run for governor of California.

The timing is ripe: The campaign to recall Gov. Gray Davis could give him a chance to seek the job in unique circumstances with distinct advantages over a normal election, strategists say. But the allure of his celebrity candidacy has yet to be tested by the real-world rigors of California politics. The champion bodybuilder has yet to answer scores of questions that any candidate for high office would face. Above all: What qualifies Schwarzenegger to govern a state of 34 million people as it teeters on the edge of fiscal collapse?

In the last week, Schwarzenegger has chatted with Regis Philbin, Howard Stern and other national talk-show hosts to plug “Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines,” which opens Wednesday. In fawning interviews that political rivals could only envy, Schwarzenegger faced few serious questions. Instead, he shared his thoughts on plastic surgery (hasn’t had any), nude scenes (lifts weights for weeks to prepare) and his diet (eats a lot of ice cream).

On NBC’s “Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” the host asked Schwarzenegger whether he would run for governor. When the shrieks and applause died down, he responded: “In a few days from now, I do have to make a very, very -- probably one of the most difficult -- decisions of my life: what to wear on my opening day of ‘Terminator 3.’ ”

The audience laughed at his playful evasion. But if he runs for governor, Schwarzenegger will face pressure to lay out a concrete public agenda for a state with four times the population of his native Austria.

In broad terms, Schwarzenegger, who declined to be interviewed for this article, has long described himself as a fiscal conservative with moderate views on social issues, a standard Republican formula for victory in a Democratic-leaning state like California.

But on freeway traffic jams, offshore oil drilling, the fiscal crisis, smog, immigration, the state’s electricity mess and other big issues, Schwarzenegger’s ideas are largely a mystery. Democrats are already pouncing on the lack of specifics.

“It isn’t enough to sign autographs and pose with screaming teenage girls,” said Garry South, former chief political strategist for Davis. “What does he know about water? What does he know about how the sales tax is administered in California? Anything?”

Schwarzenegger advisors say that if he runs, he will respond to questions on public issues once the campaign begins. For now, they say, he is, in general, well-equipped to be governor, especially given the state’s dismal financial shape.

“His character qualifies him,” said George Gorton, his chief political strategist. “People, I think, are looking for someone willing to stand up to special interests, and who doesn’t care whether they’ll be reelected or not, and will bring the kind of solutions he’s brought to business and charity.”

Schwarzenegger, who lives in a Brentwood compound with his wife, broadcast journalist Maria Shriver, and their four children, oversees a business empire largely unknown to Californians, Gorton said. He owns a shopping mall in Ohio and a Boeing 747 jet that he leases to Singapore Airlines, along with a block of real estate in Santa Monica that includes the Schatzi on Main restaurant, Gorton said.

Schwarzenegger is also chairman and co-founder of Inner-City Games, a national network of after-school programs, and has been active in the Special Olympics. Last year, Schwarzenegger was the lead sponsor of Proposition 49, a successful California ballot measure that could steer up to $455 million a year to after-school programs. John Hein, a California Teachers Assn. leader who worked with him on the campaign, said: “I’ve learned to like him and respect him and know him as something significantly more than an actor.”

As Schwarzenegger decides whether to run, state leaders face wrenching choices to close the record $38-billion budget shortfall that dominates the governor’s job. While Davis, a Democrat, has proposed $8 billion in tax hikes and $18 billion in spending cuts, Schwarzenegger has offered no clue to how he would save the state from insolvency. With almost no exceptions, fellow Republicans in the Legislature have refused to raise taxes.

“It’s one thing to go around and be a hero for the Inner-City Games and talk about how we need to help underprivileged kids; it’s another to say there’s state funding for this, and it has to be cut 30%,” said GOP strategist Ken Khachigian.

Khachigian is overseeing the gubernatorial campaign of Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), whose initial remarks this month on guns and other subjects sparked the kind of political troubles that Schwarzenegger could face once he talks about issues.

Schwarzenegger’s contemplation of a career change comes after a string of box-office flops: “End of Days,” “The 6th Day” and “Collateral Damage.”

Despite his dwindling appeal as a star of new action movies, Hollywood producers expect the new “Terminator” sequel to be successful, partly because he is returning to his most popular role.

It’s unclear whether the actor’s decision on running for governor is linked to the movie’s fate. But if it does well, it would raise his profile as a candidate; if it does poorly, it could signal that his superstar days are waning.

Although Schwarzenegger, 55, is coy about his political ambitions, Gorton and others on the team that ran former Gov. Pete Wilson’s campaigns have been laying groundwork for the actor to run.

“I’ve seen candidates, and he looks like one to me,” Gorton said.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, a friend of Schwarzenegger’s, said he, too, expects him to run. Riordan, who ran for governor last year and became the target of fierce television advertising by Davis, said the actor should brace himself for a vicious campaign.

“Things you think you should be sainted for, you’re made to look like a crook,” Riordan said.

Among Schwarzenegger’s vulnerabilities, strategists say, are reports of boorish behavior toward women. In 2001, when the Davis campaign distributed an article from Premiere magazine accusing Schwarzenegger of groping and harassing women, the actor and his lawyer denied the allegations.

Schwarzenegger also faces an unusual political quandary on guns. In his action movies, gun violence abounds. In one scene from “Terminator 2: Judgment Day,” he pulls a shotgun as long as his arm from a flower box and pumps seven shots into a uniformed police officer. (The cop is an evil robot who does not bleed or die.)

Daphne White, founder of the Lion & Lamb Project, a group that opposes the marketing of violent entertainment to children, said there was “a huge, inherent hypocrisy” between Schwarzenegger’s film career and his support for youth programs.

“If you’re feeding them this constant diet of violence and saying that’s what a hero is -- violence is fun, violence is power, violence is entertaining, violence is harmless, because you kill bad guys -- then they naturally grow up with an intrinsic gut value that violence is OK,” she said.

Gorton responded: “There’s absolutely no evidence that violent movies cause kids to be violent, but tons of evidence that kids being left alone after school with no parental or adult supervision leads to violence.”

Gorton said Schwarzenegger is a “moderate” on gun control, a perennial issue in California campaigns. But advocates on both sides of the issue are wary.

For now, it remains uncertain whether a Davis recall election will even occur. Recall supporters must meet a Sept. 2 deadline to gather nearly 900,000 voter signatures on a petition to qualify for a special gubernatorial election. The election could occur this fall or next March. Californians would vote yes or no on a proposal to bounce Davis, then pick from a list of candidates to replace him in case he is recalled.

For Schwarzenegger, a big attraction to running in a recall race is that he could bypass a potentially divisive Republican primary. His support of legal abortion and adoption rights for gay couples -- both stands he has taken in recent years but not discussed in the context of a recall campaign -- has already raised concerns among conservatives, the core constituency in a GOP primary. In 1999, he told George magazine he was “ashamed to call myself a Republican” when Congress impeached and tried former President Clinton -- and said he would never forgive the party.

If he seeks the GOP nomination in 2006, Schwarzenegger could face a more conservative opponent. An eight-month race against a Democratic opponent would then follow the primary.

But a candidacy on the recall ballot would leave Schwarzenegger far less exposed; the campaign could be as short as 59 days. He also would start with plenty of money and an automatic edge over opponents who would be less well-known to voters.

Finally, the same political climate that is conducive to recalling Davis also is favorable to a candidate like Schwarzenegger who runs as an “agent of change.”

“He’s an outsider,” said Democratic strategist Darry Sragow. “A lot of voters are fed up with what’s going on in Sacramento and entertaining the notion of sending a message or shaking up the system.”

*

Times staff writer John Horn contributed to this report.