The Race Could Be Over Today

Voters in California and nine other states could essentially end the Democratic presidential race today, anointing John F. Kerry as the party’s pick while derailing John Edwards’ candidacy.

A day before Super Tuesday, Edwards focused on two states he hoped to win -- Ohio and Georgia -- and insisted that he would continue his candidacy into the next round of contests, which will be held in his native South on March 9.

But a Kerry sweep of today’s 10 primaries and caucuses would move the Massachusetts senator within striking distance of the 2,162 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination, while significantly increasing the pressure on Edwards to end his bid.

Kerry campaigned Monday as if he were already in the midst of a fall showdown with President Bush, mostly ignoring the only viable Democratic challenger who still confronts him.

Edwards, meanwhile, fought signs that his candidacy might be running out of steam.

Before the North Carolina senator spoke at three rallies in Ohio, his campaign issued a news release extolling the “large” crowds that greeted him. Instead, the crowds were paltry -- about 350 showed up at the University of Toledo, while Dayton and Cleveland each had crowds of 100 or so.

At the Dayton International Airport, Edwards spoke to about 125 people in a hangar and trimmed his speech to a relatively listless 13 minutes.

His campaign staffers blamed the modest turnouts on the weekday timing of the events and the nature of two of the venues -- at airports.

But even at a college ballroom in Toledo, the senator drew less than half the number of people Kerry brought to the same location recently.

Edwards continued to hear questions about his vice presidential prospects. And tracking polls showed Kerry with 20 and 30 percentage-point leads in most of the big states voting today.

“For Edwards to continue on, he really has to win a substantial state outside the South,” said Eric Davis, a political science professor at Middlebury College in Vermont. “Kerry is going to put together a huge lead in delegates.”

Kerry has 701 convention delegates already in hand, with another 1,151 on the line today, opening the way to an even bigger lead over Edwards, who has 205 delegates.

Edwards’ prospects seemed further diminished in large states like California and New York, where many voters in recent days have said they were less interested in hearing the Democrats fight it out than in selecting a winning opponent to take on Bush in November. Most have said they see Kerry, winner in 18 of 20 primary contests, fitting that bill.

Kerry focused Monday on getting out the vote.

The tired candidate held relatively short rallies from Baltimore to Columbus, Ohio, to Atlanta and avoided voter questions that might lead to a last-minute bobble.

Five months before the Democratic nominee will be formally anointed, Kerry talked as if he was firmly entrenched in a general election showdown.

“This is going to be a campaign different from campaigns in the past,” he said at Ohio State University in Columbus. “This isn’t going to be some kind of we’re-like-them-they’re-like-us, wishy-washy, mealy-mouthed, you-can’t-tell-the-difference deal.

“This is going to be something where we’re giving America a real choice,” he said. “And my choice is, we’re going to roll back George Bush’s tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and invest in education and healthcare.”

The 60-year-old candidate pledged to roll back tax cuts for those making more than $200,000 a year.

“I’m going to ask America to say we should roll back that tax cut and we should invest in education, healthcare,” he said, as cheers and applause drowned out the rest of his plan.

In confirmation of which Democrat they expected to face in the fall, Republicans continued Monday to respond to Kerry. They ignored Edwards.

Republican Reps. Patrick J. Tiberi and Deborah Pryce of Ohio accused Kerry of “backward-looking” economic policies.

“Growing the economy, creating jobs and protecting the American worker requires leadership and vision,” the House members said in a statement.

“President Bush has led the country out of a tough economic recession and to a new day of economic growth.... John Kerry’s economic polices are a recipe for disaster in Ohio. Higher taxes and more regulation on small business is exactly the wrong way to grow the economy.”

Kerry did not focus solely on the president, however. He told a television station from Albany, Ga., that he had a “stronger, longer, broader, deeper record than John Edwards.”

He added that his greater experience was particularly important in foreign policy and national security.

In the last seven days, Kerry has visited six of the 10 states with contests on Tuesday, paying particular attention to Ohio, New York and California. He did not get to Rhode Island, Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Also holding contests are Maryland, Minnesota and Georgia. The latter two states have been Edwards’ primary focus, along with Ohio.

Skipping by plane from Toledo to Dayton to Cleveland, Edwards gave a series of flat performances before the relatively small crowds.

Edwards concentrated on his background. He was the first in his working-class family to attend college; he became a trial attorney who represented plaintiffs in lawsuits for product liability and medical malpractice; and he won a longshot 1998 Senate campaign against “the Jesse Helms political machine” in North Carolina.

Yet he failed to create the kind of electricity that marked events in Iowa and Wisconsin, where voters shifted to him in the last days of those races, giving him strong and surprising second-place finishes.

Even some voters who warmed to Edwards, like Roger Gifford, did not necessarily offer much hope for today’s voting.

“I liked what he says, and I think he would be more of a uniter,” said Gifford, 58, a retired General Motors engineer from Dayton. “But I’m leaning toward Kerry -- he has more experience.”

Edwards was outspending Kerry on television advertising in Ohio, paying $440,000 for ads last week, compared to $306,000 by the front-runner.

From Feb. 21 through Feb. 27, Edwards also spent more in Georgia, $226,000 to Kerry’s $166,000, according to TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, based in Virginia. That state, situated next door to Edwards’ home state of South Carolina, is seen by most analysts as a must-win for the candidate.

It was not clear that the advertising would be enough to make an impression with voters, since it was only a fraction of the amount spent in primaries in states with smaller populations. Neither Democrat spent a dime on TV ads in California.

Assessing his campaign, Edwards mixed hope with pragmatism. He insisted Monday that he would “stay in this until [he was] the nominee,” but later acknowledged that Kerry’s “national momentum has an impact on these races.”

To underline his intentions, Edwards’ campaign released a schedule Monday detailing a three-day swing that will begin Wednesday.

The trip will take Edwards to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. Those states hold primaries on March 9.

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Martelle reported from Toledo and La Ganga from Columbus, Ohio. Times staff writers James Rainey and Nick Anderson contributed to this report.