Kevin Wolf / AP
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, at a National Assn. of Letter Carriers gathering in Washington, has worked to shift Iraq from a disadvantage to an asset by focusing on troop reductions rather than on her vote to authorize the invasion.
THE TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL

Clinton appeals to antiwar Democrats

Changing the debate
Kevin Wolf / AP
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, at a National Assn. of Letter Carriers gathering in Washington, has worked to shift Iraq from a disadvantage to an asset by focusing on troop reductions rather than on her vote to authorize the invasion.
The relatively hawkish candidate has shifted her Iraq focus to troop reductions and away from her Senate vote to authorize the war.
By Peter Wallsten, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 13, 2007
WASHINGTON -- -- Gayle Moore, an Iowa nurse, wants U.S. troops "out, out, out" of Iraq as soon as possible. Darleen McCarthy of South Carolina fears that Iraq is turning into "another Vietnam."

But when these two Democrats vote in January to help decide their party's 2008 presidential nominee, neither plans to support the self-styled antiwar candidates. Instead, they are siding with the one top contender who voted to authorize the invasion and has refused to apologize for that -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

 
"It's just a gut feeling," said Moore, 53, a mother of five. "It's her experience."

A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of voters in key early primary states reveals that Moore and McCarthy are hardly alone. They represent a paradox of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination: Although a plurality of Democratic voters considers the Iraq war to be the most pressing issue facing the candidates, the more hawkish Clinton has found a sweet spot in the debate.

Many of those voters who want an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops support her candidacy and consider her best able to end the war, as do many who back a more gradual drawdown.

"It's just the way Hillary Clinton handles herself," said McCarthy, 55, who lives near Myrtle Beach. "She says what she wants, and I think she'll let the American people know exactly what's going on."

The findings help explain why the New York senator has built a strong lead over Democratic rivals who have made their opposition to the war the centerpiece of their campaigns -- and who have laid out more-detailed plans for quicker troop reductions.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina began his campaign by declaring his 2002 authorization vote a "mistake." Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois frequently notes that, though he was a state legislator at the time, he opposed the war from the beginning. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has called for an immediate troop withdrawal.

Obama tried again Wednesday to turn his war stance to his advantage, delivering a speech in Iowa that called for a troop drawdown to begin immediately and be completed next year. He did not mention Clinton's name, but ridiculed "conventional thinking in Washington" that he said "lined up for war" and led Congress to support President Bush's plans because lawmakers feared the political consequences of doing otherwise.

"I made a different judgment," Obama said.

But the new survey results suggest that even if Obama's views more closely match those of many primary and caucus voters, he is not necessarily going to benefit.

The poll, which surveyed registered voters who planned to turn out for the primaries or caucuses in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, found that a plurality of Democratic primary or caucus voters in each state thought Clinton would be "the best at ending the war in Iraq" -- 33% in Iowa, 32% in New Hampshire and 36% in South Carolina. Clinton holds substantial leads even among voters who listed the war as the top priority facing the candidates.

Supervised by Times Poll director Susan Pinkus, the survey was conducted last Thursday through Monday, and has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points; among the Iowa Democrats it was 4 percentage points.

Clinton won support from 36% of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters who said they wanted U.S. troops withdrawn "as soon as possible"; by contrast, 14% of those voters backed Obama and 12% favored Edwards. Clinton also led among those in that group who said they supported more-gradual withdrawal plans and who backed remaining in Iraq until the war is won.

The numbers were similar on that front in South Carolina. And in Iowa, where the overall race is tighter, Clinton was essentially tied with Edwards in support from Democratic voters wanting an immediate pullout of troops from Iraq. But among those same voters, 33% said Clinton was the best candidate to end the war, compared with just 6% for Edwards.

Democratic pollster Dave Beattie, who is not affiliated with a campaign, said Clinton's rivals risked reaching a "point of diminishing returns" if they focused too heavily on differences between them and Clinton on Iraq.

Most voters, he said, are not concerned about the differences, given that each candidate is essentially critical of the war and promises to end it.

Critics have accused Clinton of failing to present a specific plan to end the war and of being slow to commit to a full pullout. She has said that as president she would end the war, and she used a speech this summer to pledge that if elected, she would consult her advisors and draw up a plan to begin drawing down troops within 60 days of her inauguration.

She reiterated that stance Wednesday, unleashing a stinging attack on Bush's leadership before his prime-time address on the war set for tonight.

"None of the Democratic candidates has a position that is outside the realm of acceptable for what the Democratic electorate is looking for," Beattie said, even though "it may not be their absolute favorite position."





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