Odds Are, Nevada Will Be a Tossup

By Mark Z. Barabak

May 6, 2004 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

CARSON CITY, Nev. —

Politically, it would seem that President Bush has hit the jackpot in Nevada, a state both sides covet as they claw their way toward the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The state’s economy is robust, with close to 83,000 jobs created since Bush took office -- more than half of them in the last year. Tourism has snapped back smartly from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, with Las Vegas casinos bustling and Reno enjoying its most prosperous winter in years.

The turmoil in Iraq has not seemed to hurt Bush’s personal standing. And even supporters of Sen. John F. Kerry say the Massachusetts blue blood is not exactly the best fit for this rough-hewn state, which clings proudly to its Wild West heritage.

But for all that, Democrats regard Nevada as highly competitive, thanks to nearly dead-even voter registration and an issue that juts up like the rugged peaks rising from the brown desert floor: Yucca Mountain.

In 2002, Bush signed legislation to establish the ridge of volcanic rock and ash -- 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas -- as the final resting place for 77,000 tons of the nation’s deadliest radioactive waste. Critics say that broke a promise he made late in the 2000 campaign, when he pledged that science, not politics, would guide his policy on Yucca Mountain.

The statement, crucial to Bush’s victory in the state, was vague enough that many assumed he would oppose the project.

“He lied,” said Jon Ralston, a nonpartisan political analyst in Las Vegas.

Not so, said Gov. Kenny Guinn, a Republican and co-chairman of Bush’s Nevada campaign, even as his lawyers fight the Bush administration in court on the storage issue. “[Bush] said he would

Although some question the potency of the Yucca Mountain issue -- even Kerry backers say his opposition to the dump isn’t enough to win Nevada’s five electoral votes by itself -- the debate suggests something larger: In a race fought so close to the margins, it is not just the big states and big questions of war, peace and the economy that matter.

Looking to November, Bush and Kerry are each counting on a base of about 200 electoral votes. Barring huge shifts, Bush is virtually certain to win his home state of Texas, much of the Rocky Mountain West and most -- if not all -- of the South, while Kerry can anticipate carrying California, New York, Illinois and much of New England.

Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania shape up as the biggest battleground states, followed by a cluster of tossups in the Midwest: Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. Both camps are targeting Arizona and Colorado, thanks to their swelling Latino populations, as well as West Virginia, a traditionally Democratic state that Bush captured in 2000.

That leaves a handful of small states -- New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada -- that might be overlooked if not for the closeness of the last presidential contest. Combined, they total 14 electoral votes, compared to 55 for California. Yet all were decided four years ago by less than 4% of the vote.

“Everyone is looking at this 2004 race ... as a kind of sequel to 2000,” said Rhodes Cook, an independent elections expert in Washington. “It doesn’t mean that it will play out the same way.... But you’ve got to begin with the same group of states that were close.”

Of those, few may be as unpredictable as Nevada.

Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush carried the state handily in the 1980s. Bill Clinton narrowly won it twice in the 1990s. In 2000, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore by fewer than 22,000 votes.

But recent political history is an unreliable guide, as tens of thousands of new Nevadans will be voting in the state for the first time in November.

Since 1990, Nevada has grown at a torrid pace, adding roughly 4,700 residents a month. (Las Vegas builds a new elementary school each month to keep up.) The state’s population exceeds 2.2 million -- close to double the figure of 14 years ago.

Many of the new arrivals are elderly retirees, a good number of whom fled California for Nevada’s lower taxes. That would seem to plant them squarely in the Bush camp, except for concerns about the Medicare overhaul bill passed last year by the Republican Congress.

“That could actually end up working in Kerry’s favor,” said Michael Green, a campaign observer at the Community College of Southern Nevada.

Latinos are another big group of new residents, attracted by the state’s booming service economy and jobs in unionized casinos. But even though Latinos make up roughly 20% of Nevada’s population, they tend to vote in numbers far below that.

Democrats hope to boost Latino turnout this fall, with help from friends in organized labor. The Culinary Workers Union, one of Las Vegas’ most powerful, is targeting 100 of the city’s heaviest Latino precincts, hoping to register as many as 8,000 new voters. But many are skeptical. “The Hispanic population is the sleeping giant, electorally,” said Ralston, the Las Vegas elections analyst. “To the best of my knowledge, though, they’re still sleeping and there’s no evidence to suggest that will change this time.”

Democrats and their allies seem to be counting more on a statewide ballot initiative they hope to qualify for November, which would add $1 to the state’s $5.15 minimum wage for employees lacking health insurance. “It’s a great issue to turn voters out,” said Glen Arnodo, political director for the Culinary Workers Union. “Particularly those who otherwise wouldn’t vote.”

One thing neither side can change is the personalities of the candidates, and here Republicans see a strong Bush advantage.

“People in Nevada ... speak their piece,” said Guinn, leaning back in an antique wood chair inside the modest governor’s office. (The pint-sized Capitol, just two stories and a short stroll end to end, is an apt symbol of Nevada’s aversion to big government.) “They like to tell it like it is, and I think [Bush] is in that category.... He will take his stand and then stick to it.”

Democrats concede that Bush’s cowboy image, which critics love to lampoon, could help him in Nevada. “The president comes across as somebody you’d probably run into in a small-town bar in Nevada and have a beer with,” said Billy Vassiliadis, a Democratic consultant in Las Vegas. “Kerry would probably be in a polo shirt with a sweater tied around his neck.”

Enter Yucca Mountain, a volatile issue for the last 20 years. Democrats hope the dispute will chip away at the president’s straight-shooting reputation and raise larger questions about his leadership, including his truthfulness about the war in Iraq.

“It’s not just an issue problem for him in Nevada, but a character problem,” said Mark Mellman, a strategist in Washington for both Kerry and Democrat Harry Reid, the state’s senior U.S. senator.

Green, the community college professor, agreed that Yucca Mountain was “a foot in the door. Now it’s up to Kerry and the other Democrats to shove the door wide open.”

Some question whether voters will blame Bush for the waste dump more than any other politician. Strategists on both sides say Nevadans now may be more resigned than angry about Yucca Mountain -- although that could change. Private polls show the issue typically languishes about fourth or fifth in voter concerns, until it hits the headlines. Then worry increases anew.

Reid, who is seeking reelection in November, has worked to stir up sentiments, with little help. None of the independent groups advertising in the state has mentioned Yucca Mountain. And the Kerry campaign is still months away from deciding whether to make the issue a part of its TV ads, the way Gore did in 2000.

More crucial to the fight for Nevada could be the candidates’ commitment of time to the state, where personal politicking matters.

“Our politicians here are very, very reachable,” Vassiliadis said. “At the end of the day, it comes down to who really wants the state and who’s going to work harder to win it.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Nevada

Nevada, a fast-growing state in an economic boom, is not easily labeled Republican or Democrat. In this year’s presidential election, the flap over storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain could help determine who wins this battleground state.

Population and clout

2000 population: 2 million

1990-2000 population increase

State: 66.3%

National: 13.1%

State demographics:

White: 65.2%

Latino: 19.7

Black: 6.8

Asian: 4.5

Native American: 1.3

Pacific Islander: 0.4