Now the Hard Part: Governing California

A day after Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victory in the recall election, a dispute erupted between the governor-elect and the state’s most powerful legislator over the tripling of California’s car tax.

Schwarzenegger, moving to keep a campaign promise, told state Senate leader John Burton (D-San Francisco) that as governor, he could single-handedly repeal the tax hike. The irascible senator disagreed.

“We have a difference of opinion there,” the Republican governor-to-be told reporters in Los Angeles.

So began Arnold Schwarzenegger’s move from Hollywood to Sacramento, where he will face the same deeply divided Legislature that often thwarted the will of outgoing Gov. Gray Davis.

The return of a Republican governor to the Capitol marks a major shift in the balance of power. Schwarzenegger’s opening clash over the vehicle license fee could portend friction between him and the Democrats who control both houses of the Legislature. Losing the $4 billion brought in by the increase, for instance, would jeopardize programs dear to many of them, setting a foul tone for budget talks in the months ahead.

“Once you take that oath of office,” Burton said, “unless you’re a total whack-a-do, reality sets in, and you find out campaign rhetoric can’t solve the problems.”

The election results Tuesday suggest that Schwarzenegger’s political center of gravity is well to the right of the Legislature’s.

Schwarzenegger’s base of support is heavily white, male, conservative, Republican and Christian, according to a Times poll of voters who cast ballots Tuesday. He ran strongest in the Central Valley and in Orange, San Diego, Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Those regions are home to the most conservative members of the Legislature’s Republican minority.

By contrast, Schwarzenegger was relatively unpopular among blacks, Latinos, Asians, liberals, Jews and Democrats, though he still ran stronger than many Republicans among those groups. He ran weakest in San Francisco and the surrounding area, as well as parts of Los Angeles County.

That’s the turf of the liberal Democrats who dominate the Legislature and set its agenda.

Democrats have already vowed to send Schwarzenegger piles of legislation on worker protections, abortion and gay rights and other topics that the moderate governor-elect might be inclined to sign -- but at the risk of alienating the conservatives who backed him most fiercely.

His reaction will suggest whether Schwarzenegger plans to placate his base, try to broaden it to the left, or somehow leap over the sorts of cultural clashes that have defined California’s Republican Party in recent years.

For a typical candidate, the need to run in the 2006 Republican primary -- a contest typically dominated by conservatives, and a battle he was able to avoid in the recall’s unusual format -- would dictate a turn to the right. But the world-famous film actor is hardly a typical candidate.

“Now that he’s governor, the question is: Will he get mired down into this stuff or is he going to try to transcend it?” said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.

Tony Quinn, who analyzes legislative races for the nonpartisan California Target Book, said Schwarzenegger ran so well in conservative precincts that most GOP lawmakers will remain allies regardless of his stands on touchstone issues like abortion.

“He’ll have them in his back pocket,” Quinn said. “Would you like to have your head knocked by somebody that got this kind of numbers? The guy’s got a big heavy personality, as you know.”

According to preliminary returns, Schwarzenegger won 3.7 million votes, or 49%, in Tuesday’s election, well ahead of Davis, who won 3.6 million votes against the recall.

Looking ahead, one thing working in Schwarzenegger’s favor is his relatively strong support among moderates and independents, a potential bridge between the Legislature’s ideological poles.

“All of these people know, Democrats and Republicans, that ordinary people are pretty disgusted with the dysfunctional system in Sacramento,” said Ronald Reagan biographer Lou Cannon.

Schwarzenegger vowed Wednesday to build ties to Democrats and independents, as well as fellow Republicans.

“There is much that we can do here if we don’t take a negative approach and say, ‘Oh, that one are the villains, and they are the good ones,’ ” he told reporters at a Century City news conference.

State Assembly Minority Leader Dave Cox (R-Fair Oaks) suggested it was only a matter of time before Schwarzenegger builds trust and confidence in the Legislature.

“This is like eating an elephant one bite at a time,” he said. “You meet one person, you meet another person.”

He also said Schwarzenegger’s success in Hollywood would have taught the governor-elect the art of compromise as practiced in the capital.

“He has all those skills,” Cox said. “He couldn’t have gotten where he’s gotten without those skills.”

No doubt, Schwarzenegger will face a tougher time forging ties to Democrats.

After talking to Burton and Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson (D-Culver City) by phone on Wednesday, Schwarzenegger said they told him: “Yeah, we look forward to working with you, Arnold. It will be terrific. I think we can accomplish a lot together.”

“And I believe that,” Schwarzenegger said.

Wesson recalled a portion of the conversation not emphasized by Schwarzenegger; it suggested the new governor’s political honeymoon might not last long.

“I told him, ‘You’ve got to be careful what you wish for,’ ” Wesson said. “The easiest part of getting in politics is actually being elected. The hard part is governing.”

State Assemblyman Dario Frommer (D-Los Feliz) warned that the governor-elect should avoid forming a starkly Republican administration populated by Schwarzenegger advisors close to Gov. Pete Wilson, a figure particularly reviled among the powerful Latino caucus.

“If it’s a retread of the Wilson administration, you’re going to see a lot of Democrats saying this is just business as usual,” Frommer said.

A potential asset for Schwarzenegger is charisma. Given the force of his larger-than-life personality, he might be more willing than Davis “to step in and really knock heads or twist arms or pat people on the back and try to encourage them to work together,” Frommer said.

The challenge that will overshadow all others is the state’s fiscal mess.

By repealing the increase in the car tax -- the vehicle license fee -- Schwarzenegger could swell the state’s budget shortfall next year to at least $12 billion. With the state’s borrowing tactics under court challenge, the shortfall could soon grow billions higher.

But Schwarzenegger renewed his vow Wednesday not to raise taxes.

Ken Khachigian, a onetime Reagan campaign advisor, said Schwarzenegger’s best option is to propose austere fiscal solutions early in his tenure to ensure a more favorable political climate for a 2006 reelection bid.

“He’s going to have to make a very strong case for the public not having everything it wants in one bite,” Khachigian said.

On Wednesday, state Treasurer Phil Angelides, a potential Democratic contender for governor in 2006, began to elbow Schwarzenegger on the budget. He called on the governor-elect to lay out a plan that would meet an array of campaign spending promises, including a blanket protection for education spending.

“All of us need to hold Mr. Schwarzenegger accountable,” he said.

His remarks were clearly aimed at raising doubts about Schwarzenegger’s ability to live up to his word without raising taxes or driving the state deeper into a swamp of debt.

“There is going to be no honeymoon for any of us,” Angelides said. “The genuine debate about the state’s future begins today.”

*

Staff writers Matea Gold, Evan Halper, Allison Hoffman, Scott Martelle and Nancy Vogel contributed to this report.