Iraq elections marred by violence

Reporting from Baghdad — 

Bombs and mortar shells pounded Baghdad on Sunday, killing at least 40 people and wounding dozens more, as Iraqis, desperate for a brighter future, sought to cast their ballots in crucial national elections.

The deadly blasts, which echoed across the capital before 7 a.m. and lasted until close to noon, threw a pall over the vote for the second four-year government since Saddam Hussein was toppled in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion.

In contrast to national elections in 2005, when U.S. military vehicles patrolled Baghdad, only Iraqi army and police guarded the city Sunday. They were unable to prevent insurgents from launching their fusillades, which appeared to unnerve some voters and dissuade many from heading to the polls in the morning, said Hamdiya Husseini, a spokeswoman for Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission.

Later in the day, voter turnout rose markedly, Husseini said. Still, the subdued scene at the polls stood in sharp contrast to 2005, when the capital’s voting centers were clogged with people. No turnout figures were expected before Monday and electoral commission members cautioned that official results would take time.

The elections have been considered a crucial milestone for the U.S. military, which plans to withdraw all its combat troops -- 50,000 of them -- from Iraq by the end of August. The day’s mix of death and quiet heroism, as Iraqis headed to the polls, said much about the country’s uncertain future as the Americans prepare to leave.

About 6,200 candidates were competing for 325 parliament seats.

What seemed clear among ordinary Iraqis was an impatience with the status quo and a wish to improve their lot by choosing a government that would not be marred by the types of deadlocks, corruption and paralysis of its predecessor.

This appeared to motivate many to vote despite the dangers. None interviewed, whether Sunni or Shiite, seemed to have a ready answer about what would happen if their demand for an effective government was not met.

Abu Mustapha, 35, had been awakened by the sound of an explosion knocking down an apartment building in the Ur neighborhood. He soon learned that a local vegetable seller, named Sadiq, and his wife and children were among those buried under the jagged heaps of rubble. Despite the attack, he headed out to cast his ballot.

He came home, his finger dipped in dark ink, as women in veils sobbed and, in the back of an ambulance, the foot of a dead child could be seen.

“Let them do attacks. For seven years we suffered death,” said Abu Mustapha, who voted for Prime Minister Nouri Maliki. “I am optimistic. The government will be formed and control the situation.”

A few blocks away, another explosion tore down a second apartment building. Police put the death toll from the two attacks at 25. At the second location, a woman in a black robe wailed for her mother, who died in the rubble.

“My mother! My mother! This is what we get from this government,” she screamed, dropping to the grassy divider in the middle of the street. She punched her own face and started to run toward the wreckage before a policeman blocked her.

Two women watched from behind a line of Humvees. They too had been knocked out of bed by the sound of the blast and had then marched to the polling station.

“These terrorists don’t want Iraq to be stable and safe, but despite that we went to the polls and voted,” said a woman, who called herself Umm Mada. “We were determined to vote.”

The women, both of whom cast ballots for Maliki, raised their fingers, stained with ink. Both said they were sure Maliki’s next government would be better than the first. “Definitely one day Iraq will be stable,” Umm Mada said.

By 11 a.m., on the edge of the Adhamiya district, a steady flow of voters began arriving at the polls. Many vowed to vote for former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who headed a list of Sunni and Shiite secular candidates.

“For four years, we have seen nothing. There is progress, but not what we want,” said a woman named Umm Mustapha, who, like other voters, ventured out despite the bomb-backed threats of insurgents.

The Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella militant group that includes Al Qaeda in Iraq, had papered Sunni Arab neighborhoods with fliers threatening death to those who voted. The militants hoped to discredit the country’s still-young democracy and aggravate tensions between its Sunni minority that prospered under Hussein and the Shiite majority, which now controls the levers of power.

With people seeking major improvements -- whether through voting in a new Maliki government, with the hope that he would no longer be hindered by political rivals, or selecting Allawi -- the likelihood remains that the Iraqi government will continue to be beset by deadlock and fierce rivalries.

“As to government effectiveness, my view is that the government is going to become less effective and probably somewhat more corrupt, if anything, as the U.S. presence wanes,” said Kenneth Katzman, an Iraq analyst for the Congressional Research Service.

He warned that disillusionment among Iraqis, whether Sunni or Shiite, could very well come to jeopardize the democratic process.

“The scenarios are endless. You could have a scenario where a sitting prime minister morphs into a dictator by curbing freedoms and using security forces against opponents, a road Maliki has started to go down,” Katzman said. “You could get a vote of no confidence against a sitting PM, as was considered in 2006 and 2007 against Maliki, leading to a new government. You could get a situation where an insurgency continues to rage for many years, and virtually is never defeated, but is kept at bay.”

Senior Iraqi leaders have expressed concern about the future. In an interview last week, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, said that unless Iraqis purged secret cells of Hussein’s Baath Party from the army, the new order could be toppled.

“We expect a new coup d’etat. We had a bad experience in Iraq in 1963. Baath were ousted. In 1968 they came back to power because they remained in the army. They are not believing in the democratic process; they are believing in coup d’etat. It’s a threat,” Talabani warned.

On Sunday night, some political slates were already seeking to present themselves as the victors. Allawi warned that parliament would investigate any allegations of vote-rigging. Meanwhile, other members of his list declared that they had been victorious in Baghdad and several northern provinces.

Before the vote, Sami Askari, a senior confidant to Maliki, said the prime minister’s list hoped to get 100 seats in Baghdad and the Shiite south.

After results are announced, Iraqi and Western officials have cautioned, it could take until August before a government is formed and a prime minister selected. Iraq’s parties will bargain for positions and have to deal with thorny issues, like the status of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds want settled after years of delay.

It took half a year to seat the Maliki government after elections in December 2005. By then, the attack on a Shiite shrine in Samarra had tipped the country into civil war.

ned.parker@latimes.com