Last week's drama in the
If the House GOP had forced a
And it suggests that Boehner has begun to master an unexpected challenge: the art of leading a minority government.
Minority? On paper, Republicans hold an impressive majority in the House of Representatives, with 245 seats to the Democrats' 188. But the GOP conference has been chronically, even theatrically divided. Hard-line conservatives — we once called them the
That's what happened last week. Initially, Boehner had vowed to fight "tooth and nail" against President
So, naturally, they divided. About two-thirds, led by the Freedom Caucus, voted defiantly for a shutdown. The rest, led by Boehner, voted to surrender. The non-Freedom Republicans (ouch!) were joined by Pelosi and her Democrats, who voted gleefully for a bill that left Obama's immigration decision intact.
"This decision, considering where we are, is the right one for this team, and the right one for this country," Boehner glumly told his colleagues.
In 2012, political scholars Norman J. Ornstein and Thomas E. Mann wrote that
Since then, the problem has only gotten worse.
Some have suggested that Boehner is effectively running a coalition government of red and blue pragmatists. But that's not quite right. Instead, in parliamentary terms, it's more like a minority government.
Instead of two parties, there are three: the Freedom Caucus, the Boehner Republicans and the Democrats. To win on any issue, the speaker needs two of those factions. Most of the time, he still depends on the two wings of his own GOP conference. (That's how he won reelection in January, despite 25 Republican dissenters.) But in a pinch, he can strike a temporary alliance with Pelosi.
If we really had a parliamentary system, one of three things might have happened last week: Boehner would have called new elections. (Not available in our system.) Or his party would have ousted him and installed a leader who could hold Republicans together. (There's no such person.) Or the Republicans could split into two mini-parties, as happens in countries like Israel.
That's not going to happen because the two-party system is so deeply rooted . But as a practical matter, it's already occurred.
Boehner is likely to get a lot more practice in running a minority government because the House faces a long list of divisive votes.
First, there's the budget, which Congress is supposed to pass by April 15. That doesn't risk shutting down the government, so Boehner can give the Freedom Caucus free rein. But it's hard to imagine how the conservative House and the more pragmatic
Then there's Obamacare. If the Supreme Court strikes it down, Congress will have to deal with the chaos that ensues.
And in the fall, government spending bills and the federal
It's a system that works, more or less — just as long as the speaker doesn't mind looking foolish now and again. Still, it means Republicans are avoiding disasters rather than passing legislation and showing they deserve to win the White House.
"People expect Republicans in Congress to focus their efforts on proposing and passing policies to improve the economy," Boehner's pollster, David Winston, wrote in an internal GOP memo after the 2014 election. "They didn't vote for Republicans simply to be a check and balance on President Obama."
So far the party has accomplished neither.