As Far as Predictions Go, U.S. Is Wise to Listen Up
The United States will tie the Czech Republic, 1-1, lose to Italy, 2-0, defeat Ghana, 3-2, and be eliminated in the first round of the World Cup in Germany this summer.
So says FourFourTwo magazine, which used Football Manager 2006, a computer simulation program, to “play” all 64 games of the June 9-July 9 tournament just to see who might win. The results were spread over seven pages in the magazine’s March issue.
Not surprisingly, since FourFourTwo is an English publication, England ended up winning it all, repeating its 1966 triumph by defeating Germany, 4-2 on penalty kicks, after playing to a 2-2 tie in the final in Berlin.
Such fiction aside -- England and Germany have as much chance of reaching the final as Togo and Trinidad -- there is merit in the predictions offered for the U.S. team, judging by the real-life performances of its three first-round opponents last Wednesday.
* The Czechs suffered a late meltdown, gave up a two-goal lead and were held, 2-2, by an otherwise unimpressive Turkey. True, Coach Karel Bruckner’s squad was missing several starters, but U.S. speed and quick passing could exploit the Czechs’ defensive fragility, and goalkeeper Petr Cech showed in Izmir that even he is not infallible.
Bruckner’s squad has three feeble opponents left -- Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago -- in its run-up to the June 12 clash with the U.S. After that hapless trio, the U.S. will seem like a world power.
* The Italians rolled through visiting Germany, winning 4-1 in Florence and establishing themselves as legitimate World Cup contenders. Coach Marcello Lippi is determined to win the group and thus avoid Brazil in the second round. Defeating Ghana and the U.S. by sizable margins will put him on course before the vital third game against the Czechs.
“We’re very happy with a good night’s work,” Lippi said after sending the Germans packing. That win, plus an earlier one over the Netherlands, indicates that the Italians are for real, even without talismanic Francesco Totti.
* The lackluster Ghanaians were beaten, 1-0, by Mexico in Frisco, Texas, and will not be a factor in their first World Cup. Even with the supposedly gifted Michael Essien in the lineup, the West Africans looked slow, unimaginative and totally incapable of scoring. And it was only Mexico they were playing, not a legitimate contender.
“It’s difficult because many of us haven’t played together,” Essien said afterward.
If a new coach comes in, as the Ghana soccer federation has suggested might happen, and the new coach brings in new players, the problem will only be compounded. Look for an early exit by the Black Stars.
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While its opponents were meeting with mixed fortunes, the U.S. team was beating Poland, 1-0, in Kaiserslautern, Germany, where it will play Italy in the World Cup on June 17.
The victory was deserved and the match served to solidify the U.S roster. As matters stand, and barring injuries in the next three months, 21 of the 23 places on Coach Bruce Arena’s team are pretty much assured.
Even Arena would not dispute that.
“I think for the most part people can figure out what players are going to be here for the World Cup,” he said in Kaiserslautern.
Taking up that challenge, here are the likely World Cup starters and their backups:
Goalkeeper -- Kasey Keller (Marcus Hahnemann and Tim Howard).
Right back -- Steve Cherundolo (Frankie Hejduk).
Center backs -- Oguchi Onyewu (Eddie Pope) and Greg Berhalter (Jimmy Conrad).
Left back -- Eddie Lewis.
Holding midfielder -- Claudio Reyna (Pablo Mastroeni).
Right wing -- Clint Dempsey.
Attacking midfielder -- Landon Donovan (John O’Brien).
Left wing -- DaMarcus Beasley (Bobby Convey).
Forwards -- Brian McBride (Taylor Twellman) and Josh Wolff (Eddie Johnson).
The two problem areas are obvious: left back and right wing. That’s what makes the last two spots so difficult to predict.
Does Arena give himself extra defensive cover by selecting Carlos Bocanegra and Cory Gibbs? The former seems a better bet since he can fill in at left back. But so can Hejduk, who filled the role in 2002, and even Convey at a pinch.
Does Arena choose Steve Ralston or Chris Klein as cover for Dempsey on the right wing? Or does he bring Chris Albright back into the fold? The Galaxy player can play at either outside back position and in right midfield.
Then there are Kerry Zavagnin, Todd Dunivant and Pat Noonan. Reyna, sidelined since Dec. 26 after ankle surgery, started for Manchester City on Sunday, and with Mastroeni already back from injury and O’Brien close to it, Zavagnin’s chances appear slim.
Dunivant suffered a hip injury at the worst possible time, missing the Poland game and probably missing the impending Germany match March 22. He would be an excellent backup for Lewis but now is doubtful to make the roster. Noonan, also injured, would have a better chance if Beasley and Convey were not such locks on the left side.
Arena will reveal all in late April.
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Quick passes from here and there.
Sepp Blatter, FIFA’s globe-trotting president with a gift for inane remarks, now says he doesn’t like the way organizers of the Germany ’06 World Cup are selling tickets. “The Germans picked a system I can’t understand at all,” Blatter told Sunday’s edition of the Swiss newspaper Neue Zuericher Zeitung. “It would probably have been better if we had taken over the ticketing ourselves.” German organizing committee vice president Horst Schmidt said Blatter’s comments left him “speechless.” Germany has sold 2.6 million of the 3.3 million tickets available and demand far outstrips supply.
England’s Observer newspaper reported Sunday that Manchester United, owned by Tampa Bay Buccaneer magnate Malcolm Glazer, will announce a $100-million shirt sponsorship deal with Mansion, an Internet gambling company based in Gibraltar and headed by Indonesian billionaire Putera Sampoerna. The NFL’s stance on gambling is well known and Glazer is likely to be quizzed rather keenly by his fellow NFL owners about this deal.... World Cup-bound Australia is unlikely to retain Guus Hiddink as coach after the tournament, the country’s soccer federation said Sunday. Hiddink who led the Netherlands to the semifinals in 1998 and South Korea to the semifinals in 2002, has been mentioned as a possible coach of both Russia and England.... Iran, also headed for Germany, has lost midfielder Ali Karimi for six to eight weeks after the Bayern Munich player injured his right ankle in a loss to Hamburg in the snow and mud Saturday.... Argentina has lost starting left back Diego Placente for at least a month after the Celta Vigo defender underwent surgery Friday for a knee cartilage injury suffered a week earlier.
