Taking a look at the traveler’s crystal ball

LAST year was a rough one for the travel industry: war, terrorism, SARS, cruise-ship viruses, a bumpy economy. Will things be better in 2004? We’ve pulled out our crystal ball for a look into the future.

* Sadly, violence has become commonplace. The 2002 explosion in Bali seems as though it happened in the distant past; the one last year in Turkey is fading fast. One small silver lining: Perhaps Americans will start paying more attention to international news.

* Last-minute deals will continue to be huge sellers. Few travelers plan their trips more than three months in advance, and many now plan just a couple of weeks ahead because the Internet has made it a breeze to find fire sales.

Here’s a tip we’re going to see more travelers use: Go to a cyber cafe while on the road to book luxury hotel rooms at budget prices just a few days before rolling into town. You can be spontaneous and still snag great deals.

* The weak dollar means that Americans are getting smarter about visiting Europe in the off-season. Airfare and packages are a great buy. You can find round-trip airfare of less than $300 to London or Ireland from LAX; air and six nights in London can be less than $600.

Also, because hotels above the two-star level are rarely available for less than $100 these days, savvy travelers are turning to cheaper, more culturally intriguing alternatives, such as small family-run bed-and-breakfasts or agritourism farm stays, both of which ring in for around $30 to $60 for a double room.

* Americans will also get wiser about visiting places where the dollar is strong. Right now that means South America, particularly Argentina and Brazil. Devalued South American currencies have kept such formerly pricey destinations as Buenos Aires well below budget level for more than a year now, and people are finally catching on and booking vacations there.

* Though people seem to be traveling more than they did two years ago, crowds still aren’t going to Asia and Africa with any frequency, so we should continue to see deals there.

* The adventure travel trend seems to be cooling, probably because of all the craziness in the world. When times are difficult, people travel to relax in a pretty place and maybe learn a bit about an interesting destination.

* We’ll see more activity on the no-frills/low-cost airline front. United’s Ted offshoot is scheduled to start this year, and Virgin plans a low-cost entry in the U.S. market as well.

Even American Airlines, which always said it would never go low-cost, no longer rules it out. The trend has been huge in Europe, and low-cost airlines are cropping up in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. One-way flights that cost well under $100 -- and take just an hour or two versus the 12 hours the same trip takes by train -- will become the norm.

* We’ll likely see more turbulence in the airline industry. While some airlines are flirting with financial ruin, airfares will rise a little as business travel picks up again. And as the no-frills airlines gain more ground, they’ll force the big carriers like United into a corner.

* New Zealand and Australia will continue to build on their popularity, as will South Africa. These destinations are attractive not just because they’re exotic and affordable but because they’re far from trouble spots.

* Expect a Chinese travel boom: More Westerners, hearing what a wonderful experience it is to visit China, are going to pack their bags and go. And as China’s middle class grows, it will also start traveling.