Update: How bad is the August slump?

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Blogger’s note: This post is updated with two additional links below, one to an LATimes story that ran on August 13 adressing this issue, and a new post on Manhattan Beach Confidential reporting that new escrows have slowed to a ‘trickle.’

Every indication is that August was a very slow month for the real estate industry -- and we don’t mean that in the ‘it’s summer and things are slow’ sense. We mean that in the ‘the mortgage industry is in crisis, loans aren’t getting approved and deals are not closing’ sense.

Remember, August was when two major lenders -- Countrywide and Thornburg -- had trouble getting their hands on money to lend; it was when rates on jumbo mortgages spiked, the market for mortgage-backed secruties froze, and the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Chris Dodd, said ‘You can’t get a mortgage in America today.’

So our question is, can anyone take a stab at quantifying how bad the August sales numbers will be? four pieces of guidance:

(New) The LA Times addressed this issue back on August 13th, reporting ‘August could wind up as one of the worst months on record for the region’s home sales.’

(New) Manhattan Beach Confidential reports that new escrows in August have slowed to a ‘trickle.’

Commenter Cal writes, ‘Anecdotal evidence from realtors who post pending sales data and my own tracking of my local market pendings, I’ve seen approx a 16-18% drop in pendings in a short period of time from these sources.’

But broker/columnist Lou Barnes cautions that we won’t know for a while: ‘August home-sales are closing on contracts written June-July, and a substantial decline in activity won’t appear until September sales are reported in October.’

Your thoughts? Guesses? Predictions? Email story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.