California Realtors see ’08 price drop

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Good morning. We know we throw so many numbers at you, it can be confusing. Well, here comes another set of numbers: The California Association of Realtors now says that median home prices will rise 3.5% this year and fall 4% next year. CAR projects the median price will fall from $576,000 this year to $553,000 next year.

Many others see falling prices right this very minute: The Case-Schiller index shows prices are falling in L.A., and DataQuick has been advising that, even though median sales prices are holding up, home values are actually falling. And of course, median listing prices have been falling for months.

Another nugget today: The National Association of Realtors has cut its sales forecast No, wait a minute, Bloomberg says it’s only the tenth time this year the N.A.R. has lowered some part of its forecast.

Whenever the N.A.R. issues a forecast, we like to quote from it, because so many of you like to respond to N.A.R.’s insights. Here goes: “Although sales are off from an unsustainable peak in 2005, there is a historically high level of home sales taking place this year -– a lot of people are, in fact, buying homes,” said N.A.R. economist Lawrence Yun. “One out of 16 American households is buying a home this year. The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains.”

One serious note: The N.A.R., for what it is worth, is predicting existing home sales will recover next year, rising from 5.78 million in ’07 to 6.12 million in ’08. California Realtors are making no such forecast: The California Association of Realtors predicts home sales in the state will continue to decline, from a projected 367,000 this year to 334,000 next year.

Comments? Insights? E-mail story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com.
Hat tip: Todd in WeHo
Photo Credit: Los Angeles Times