Opinion: Larry Craig aggravates the GOP’s larger problem

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We riffed Wednesday on the incredible good fortune that has marked Chuck Schumer’s time as honcho of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Today, we pause to ponder what John Ensign, who oversees the equivalent Republican group, ever did to incur the wrath of the political gods.

Last month, we surveyed in detail the daunting landscape confronting the GOP in the 2008 battle for the Senate. Barring a major shift in the prevailing winds, the best that Ensign --- himself a senator from Nevada --- can hope to do is keep his party’s losses in the chamber to a minimum. Republican Pete Domenici’s decision to retire, which the New Mexico senator discussed today, made a bad situation worse for Ensign. And on top of everything comes the announcement from Idaho’s scandal-scarred Larry Craig that he’s going to serve out his current term (though, mercifully for Ensign’s mental health, not attempt reelection next year).

The GOP presumably will hold Craig’s seat. Idaho is a rock-ribbed Republican state. President Bush carried it with 68% of the vote in 2004 (slightly improving on the 67% he won in 2000). The last time a Democrat won a Senate race there was then-incumbent Frank Church in 1974 --- and state voters proceeded to bounce him from office in 1980.

Still, Craig did his party --- and especially Ensign --- no favors by reversing his pledge, nationally televised on Sept. 1, to give up his post within a few weeks.

By stepping down, ...

Craig would have enabled Republican Gov. Butch Otter to appoint a successor to serve for the next year-plus. More than likely, Otter would have named someone --- no doubt a Republican --- who was prepared to seek a full six-year term in next year’s election.

As it is now, Idaho Republicans could have a fractious primary on their hands, as various ambitious politicians vie for a huge step up the political ladder. And whomever emerges victorious must run under the shadow of Craig’s infamous arrest --- and subsequent guilty plea to a misdemeanor charge --- in a bathroom sex-sting operation.

All this means that Ensign will have to keep at least half an eye on a state that should be the least of his worries in the ’08 campaign. Strange things can happen in contentious primaries for an open seat; a GOP candidate could emerge who might give pause to more than a few Idaho voters, creating a bit of drama in the outcome of the November vote.

And even if that doesn’t happen, with the state’s Democratic leaders looking to invoke Craig’s name at every opportunity, Ensign’s committee may have to expand some energy and money in Idaho to ensure the seat remains in the Republican column --- resources that could be better used elsewhere.

And speaking of elsewhere --- and this could be Ensign’s bigger concern --- doesn’t Craig, and his continuing presence on Capitol Hill, loom as a millstone for GOP candidates in other states?

Ensign minced few words today in talking about Craig’s situation. He said that when his colleague initially announced that he would be resigning, ‘I thought it was the right decision, thought it was an honorable decision. Then he came back and said he was going to try to reverse the guilty plea and if he wasn’t able to do that ... he would then resign.

‘Well, he had his day in court. The judge ruled against him. I’m calling on Sen. Craig now to keep his word. ... It’s the right thing to do for the Senate. It’s the right thing to do for his party. If he loves his party, if he loves the Senate, he’ll keep his word.’’

Larry Craig may be staying in the Senate. But don’t look for John Ensign to be buying him lunch.

-- Don Frederick