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Opinion: Quinnipiac pollsters give Obama clear lead in Ohio and Pennsylvania; rate Florida a tossup

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The Ticket has paid a lot of attention to state-by-state polling by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute of Connecticut over the last few months, in part because these surveys are based on large sample groups.

The final report from these pollsters focuses on three key states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Each is vitally important to Barack Obama and John McCain in their own right, but Quinnipiac’s news release makes this point about looking at them as a trio: ‘No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three.’

In that 1960 race, Richard Nixon won Ohio and Florida, but lost the presidency in a barn-burner to John F. Kennedy.

Here are the wrap-up numbers from Quinnipiac:

Florida (27 electoral votes) -- Obama, 47%; McCain 45%

Ohio (20 electoral votes) -- Obama, 50%; McCain 43%

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Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Obama, 52%; McCain 42%

The Florida results are within the survey’s margin of error; the figures for the two other states make Obama the clear favorite to carry them.

-- Don Frederick

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