A group of economists forecast a recession.

The prediction by the National Assn. of Business Economists differs sharply from economic expectations of the Reagan Administration, which is projecting no recession through 1990. A majority of the economists polled--52%--said they expected that the next recession would begin in 1986, while only 17% expected the recovery to last into 1987 or beyond. Giant federal budget deficits were most often cited as the reason for the belief that the current expansion will not last as long as the 46-month average for recoveries since World War II.

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