NBA Playoff Preview : Celtics’ Fate: Will It Be Repeat or Defeat?

Not long after the Boston Celtics had finished dismantling the Lakers in Game 7 of the NBA championship series last June at antiquated Boston Garden, many were already convinced that the Celtics would not repeat as champions.

This belief had little to do with the Celtics’ talent or desire. Sure, there were doubts about their depth, especially in the backcourt after Gerald Henderson was traded for a first-round draft pick, but the Celtics certainly seemed capable of winning the title again.

It’s just that, in the NBA, champions don’t repeat.

There hasn’t been successful defense of a title since the Celtics did it in 1968-1969 in Bill Russell’s final season. The circumstances have been different for teams over the last 15 seasons, but the results have been the same. Be it injuries, arrogance or simply poor play, the defending champion has always found a way to stumble either in the finals or the early rounds.

Even now, after compiling the league’s best record (63-19) and only losing consecutive games twice during the regular season, the Celtics are not overwhelming favorites to repeat. The Celtics not only have to meet some talented teams in the Eastern Conference before possibly meeting the Lakers again in the finals, but they also have to battle history.

Remember, more dominating teams than this Boston club have failed.

But the Celtics are entering the playoffs, which actually began Wednesday night with the Philadelphia-Washington first game, with their usual confident swagger. They don’t talk about the supposed playoff jinx but they realize it’s difficult to repeat under any circumstances.

“I think the biggest thing that keeps us going is that everyone knows their roles,” said Celtic guard Dennis Johnson, who played on the 1978-1979 Seattle SuperSonic team that won the NBA title only to fall the next season. “That time in Seattle, we came back the next year and everyone wanted to score a little more, shoot a little more, including me. Here, the guys come in knowing we have the same roles and we need a little more hustle to get what we had last year.”

Boston has basically the same team that beat the Lakers in last season’s bitterly contested championship series. The only significant change is in the backcourt, where the departed Henderson has been replaced in the starting lineup by Danny Ainge. Ray Williams, an important late-season acquisition, is the third guard.

Other than the uncertainty at guard and a knee injury to forward Cedric Maxwell, the Celtics received normal production from their regulars. Forward Larry Bird had another extraordinary regular season, averaging 28.7 points (second in the league), 10.5 rebounds (eighth overall) and 6.6 assists. Center Robert Parish averaged 17.6 points and 10.6 rebounds, while forward Kevin McHale averaged 19.8 points and 9.1 rebounds, and guard Dennis Johnson 15.7 points a game and 6.7 assists.

If anything, the Celtics seem to have more depth this season. Williams has shot only 38% since joining the Celtics in February, but filled the third-guard role well. Since the injury to Maxwell, Scott Wedman has expanded his role and figures to see a lot of time at forward. Coach K.C. Jones has indicated that McHale will start at power forward and Maxwell, still slowed by the knee injury, will come off the bench.

There are two teams--Philadelphia and Milwaukee--that have realistic chances of derailing the Celtics before they can even advance to the championship series.

The 76ers know what it’s like to be the defending champions and to get abruptly knocked off in the first round. Last season, Philadelphia was eliminated in five games by the New Jersey Nets to perpetuate the no-one-repeats cycle. The 76ers don’t have that pressure this season, but they also aren’t exactly entering the playoffs on a roll.

After challenging the Celtics for the NBA’s best record most of the season, the 76ers lost eight of their last 14 games to finish with the league’s third-best record (58-24).

“We want to prove last year was a fluke and we’re coming back to redeem ourselves,” Coach Billy Cunningham said. “This is a better team than last year. We’re healthier and that’s reason enough to feel better about the team.”

Philadelphia isn’t totally healthy, though. Guard Andrew Toney missed the last four games of the regular season with a sprained left ankle but was reactivated in time for the playoffs. In addition, Moses Malone has been bothered by various ailments this season, but he still averaged 24.6 points and a league-leading 13.1 rebounds.

Milwaukee, surprise winner of the Central Division, will meet the 76ers in the second round, providing both teams win their opening series. The Bucks won three games against the 76ers this season and four against the Celtics. If centers Alton Lister and Paul Mokeski can find a way to neutralize Malone, the Bucks could prevent another Boston-Philadelphia rematch for the Eastern Conference final.

Should the Celtics make it out of the tough Eastern Conference, they probably will face the Lakers, who seemingly have a much easier path to the championship series. The Lakers would not face either Denver or Houston, their toughest competition, until the conference final.

The Lakers are entering the playoffs on a roll, having won 20 of their last 22 games en route to the second best record in the franchise’s history (62-20).

Although Denver won the Midwest Division, center Wayne Cooper isn’t capable of stopping Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in a half-court situation. Houston has the height with Ralph Sampson and Akeem Olajuwon but lacks depth and playoff experience.

A look at the first-round, best-of-five matchups:

EASTERN CONFERENCE BOSTON-CLEVELAND: The Cavaliers, surprise playoff participants, haven’t beaten the Celtics in the last 15 meetings. That figure will likely climb to 18 straight after Boston sweeps this series.

There always is a chance Cleveland will make it interesting. The Cavaliers compiled a highly respectable 34-27 record after a disastrous 2-19 start. Shooting guard World B. Free leads the Cavaliers with a 22.5 scoring average, and playmaker John Bagley averaged 8.6 assists per game.

Although Cleveland’s front line of Roy Hinson (15.8), Phil Hubbard (15.8) and Mark West (3.9) has been surprisingly effective, it’s clearly no match for Boston’s powerful front of Parish, McHale, Bird and a healthy Maxwell.

Perhaps if the Cavaliers had started playing better a bit earlier, they would have avoided Boston and drawn Philadelphia in the first round. Inexplicably, the Cavaliers have won their last four games against the 76ers and lost another by two points.

Cleveland, however, just seems elated to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 1978.

“I hear the winner of this series is favored to win the whole thing,” Cavalier General Manager Harry Weltman said.

Boston Coach K.C. Jones said he doesn’t think his team will overlook Cleveland. “We’ve been to the playoffs a lot of times, so our players are very much aware that you don’t walk out there and put on a uniform and show your face and the other team’s supposed to fall dead,” Jones said.

Prediction: Boston in three.

PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON: The 76ers should have brought in Rodney Dangerfield to toss the first jump ball in the series opener Wednesday night. Philadelphia was forced to begin the series a day early because the hockey Flyers already reserved the Spectrum for tonight. And, Game 2 of this series won’t be played until Sunday because the Spectrum had already booked the TNT Spring National Truck Pull.

No matter when the teams play, this could be an interesting and entertaining series, at least more than the truck pull. It all depends on the effectiveness of Washington center Jeff Ruland, who has been out of the lineup since Feb. 1 with back and shoulder injuries.

With the bulky Ruland and hefty Rick Mahorn playing together, it somewhat neutralizes Malone’s play inside. If 76ers Coach Billy Cunningham decides to start rookie Charles Barkley--he’s leaning toward veteran Bobby Jones, though--it could be quite a tag team match under the basket.

The 76ers, who won the season series, 4-2, have too much depth for the Bullets. Even if Malone hasn’t completely recovered from his ankle injury, he will dominate inside if Ruland cannot play.

“I don’t know how effective he (Ruland) will be, but it’s nice to have him back,” Washington Coach Gene Shue said. “I think he can be productive. He’ll be a factor. They’ll have to adjust to him. It will be a big psychological boost if we can get some minutes out of him. The way the series drags out should help.”

Prediction: Philadelphia in four.

MILWAUKEE-CHICAGO: The Bucks weren’t expected to win the Central Division, but they did. They aren’t expected to seriously challenge the Celtics for the Eastern Conference title, but they might. This much is certain: Milwaukee will easily get past the Bulls in the first round. However, the Bucks have little playoff experience. Leading scorer Terry Cummings, who averaged 23.6 points after being acquired from the Clippers for Marques Johnson, has never participated in an NBA playoff game. But Sidney Moncrief’s experience, as well as his defense, should get the Bucks past the first round.

Moncrief will probably draw Chicago rookie sensation Michael Jordan. Small forward Paul Pressey, who has given Bird the most problems this season, also might be matched against Jordan. If Jordan is stopped, so is Chicago. The only other offensive threat is power forward Orlando Woolridge (22.9).

The Bucks and Bulls split the season series, but it shouldn’t be that close this time.

Prediction: Bucks in four. DETROIT-NEW JERSEY: This is the most competitive series by far. Although the Nets won the season series, 5-1, they are still hurting from the loss of leading scorer Otis Birdsong, who is injured. Without Birdsong, Micheal Ray Richardson isn’t as effective. In addition, center Darryl Dawkins still is not back at full strength after missing half the season with a bad back.

Detroit, which finished a distant second to Milwaukee in the Central Division, has been perplexingly inconsistent all season. But with Isiah Thomas, who averaged a league-record 13.9 assists, and Bill Laimbeer and a stronger bench than the Nets, the Pistons should prevail.

Prediction: Pistons in five.

WESTERN CONFERENCE LAKERS-PHOENIX: No contest. The Lakers, who eliminated the Kansas City Kings in three games in the first round last season, should have an even easier time this season. Phoenix managed to beat the Lakers once during the regular season, but they have had such an injury siege recently that they can hardly put up a fight.

Walter Davis (ankle) won’t play, while Larry Nance (groin) and James Edwards (back) are questionable. So, with one starter definitely out and two hobbling, the Suns have almost no chance.

Prediction: Lakers in three.

HOUSTON-UTAH: This series matches the Rockets’ Twin Towers--7-4 Sampson and 7-0 Olajuwon--against Utah’s 7-5 shot-blocker supreme, Mark Eaton. Plus, the Jazz has five other players 6-10 or taller.

So, don’t expect too many drives through the lane here.

The Rockets finished way out of the playoffs the last two seasons (how do you think they got the Twin Towers?) but their inexperience shouldn’t hurt them in this round. Their front line, which also features small forward Rodney McCray, is too strong for Utah. Houston’s guards aren’t as good as Utah’s Darrell Griffith and Rickey Green, but that shouldn’t make the difference in this series.

The teams split the six-game season series and it should be that close.

Prediction: Rockets in five.

DENVER-SAN ANTONIO: Since clinching the Midwest title, the Nuggets haven’t played well at all. Dan Issel has played with a bruised knee and Alex English has a sprained right hand. Both will play against the Spurs, who are hurting even more than the Nuggets.

George Gervin missed the last seven games of the regular season with second-degree burns on his right hand. It happened while Gervin was making breakfast at his home. Before that, Gervin was hobbled with a sprained ankle. Making matters worse, rookie guard Alvin Robertson suffered a broken foot a week ago and will miss the playoffs. Robertson is a big loss.

The toughest defensive matchups for the Spurs will be at forward. Mark Iavaroni will likely guard Denver’s English (27.9 points a game) and Mike Mitchell will be assigned to Calvin Natt (22.3). San Antonio has the advantage at center, where Artis Gilmore has dominated Wayne Cooper.

Denver hasn’t won a game in San Antonio since 1978, but as Nugget Coach Doug Moe said: “That doesn’t mean a damn thing.” Besides, Denver has the home court and will play three games at home.

Prediction: Nuggets in four.

DALLAS-PORTLAND: The Trail Blazers, who struggled for more than half the season, won 20 of their last 32 games to finish second in the Pacific Division. However, Dallas has the home court in the playoffs. Also, the Mavericks won four of the five games between the teams, the Trail Blazers’ only win coming last week in Portland.

One reason Portland might upset Dallas is the improved play of rookie center Sam Bowie. Dallas doesn’t have a true center and Bowie, who averaged 10 points and 2.7 blocked shots a game, is not playing timid anymore. Coach Jack Ramsay has been starting rookie point guard Steve Colter along with Clyde Drexler in the backcourt, bringing Jim Paxson and Darnell Valentine off the bench.

But the Mavericks have an advantage at forward, with Mark Aguirre (25.7) and Jay Vincent (18.2). Guard Rolando Blackman (19.7) also can score.

“We feel very confident against them particularly at Reunion (Arena, Dallas’ home court),” Blackman said. “They played very well against us the last time, but we’re not going to count it in our minds. We think we can beat anybody in Reunion.”

Prediction: Mavericks in five.