Nicaragua Deserves Attention, but It’s a Drop in South America’s Bucket

I once heard a former U.S. ambassador to Brazil perfectly sum up how President Reagan’s obsession with Nicaragua has distorted this country’s perception of Latin America: “Do you realize,” he said, “that you could take Central America--all seven countries, their total populations and their combined economies--drop them into the northeast of Brazil, and not even make a difference?”

Of course, he was exaggerating. While Central America covers less than one-fifth of the area covered by the nine states of Brazil’s northeast, its population of 20 million is almost half the number of people living there. But the ambassador’s point--that Brazil is as significant to the United States as Central America, and deserves just as much attention--is valid. That never hit me more clearly than when I returned to my office this week after a trip through Brazil, Argentina and Peru, and found a stack of mail about Nicaragua waiting for me.

The material had built up before the House of Representatives’ vote rejecting Reagan’s budget request for $14 million to help anti-Sandinista rebels continue their war to overthrow the Nicaraguan government. It is an important issue, but I find it ironic that we are spending so much time debating the future of a small nation of 3 million people while countries much bigger and (in the long run) far more important are also struggling to sustain fragile democratic governments.

Two weeks ago, for example, Peru held one of the most significant presidential elections in its long history. It was remarkably peaceful, considering the economic troubles and the political terrorism that have plagued that nation for the last two years--a tribute to the faith that most Peruvians still have in democracy.

And Peruvian electors elevated a new and potentially interesting face onto the international scene: Alan Garcia, a 35-year-old congressman who was the candidate of the leftist and fiercely nationalistic APRA party. When Garcia is inaugurated in July, Reagan will have to deal with another aggressive young Latin American leader who is not all that different from some of the Sandinistas of Nicaragua.

Yet he must hope that Garcia’s government succeeds, because if it doesn’t a guerrilla war that is being waged deep in the Andes by a mysterious and violent Maoist group, Sendero Luminoso, could spread and give Peru troubles that would make El Salvador’s bloodshed look mild by comparison.

Argentina’s new civilian president, Raul Alfonsin, faces a similar do-or-die challenge. He took over from a discredited military government just over a year ago, and is still struggling with the economic shambles that it left behind.

By putting nine members of the juntas that preceded him on trial for human-rights violations, he has the military on the defensive, but his real problem is with Argentina’s middle classes. The Argentines have been spoiled by their country’s abundance, and have even grown accustomed to inflation-fed prosperity since the wartime boom of the 1940s. Many political analysts fear that they are unwilling to accept the austerity that Alfonsin must impose if the country is to pay its $35-billion foreign debt. If he pushes too hard, Argentines could turn away from him, tempting the military to oust him.

Brazil faces an even bigger foreign debt (more than $100 billion), and must replace a beloved political leader, Tancredo Neves, who died before he could take office after 20 years of military rule. For now, the nation’s leaders have rallied around Neves’ vice president, Jose Sarney, who has pledged to retain the dead leader’s appointees and carry out his campaign promises. But even the most optimistic Brazilians expect this consensus to break down once the official period of mourning is over.

Then political sparring will begin to see how long Sarney remains in office. Will he stay for four years, while Congress rewrites the military regime’s old constitution? Or will the many political factions that want direct presidential elections by 1986 have their way? The danger here is that Brazil’s military does not want a direct vote; it fears that a popularly elected leader might have the clout to punish the military as Alfonsin is punishing his generals and admirals.

An important period has begun in which all these countries will require close attention. Can their weak democratic governments remain viable? Can they pay off burdensome foreign debts and keep their middle and working classes content? Can they keep their military men under civilian control? Most important of all, can they develop economically so that the living standards of their many poor people can improve?

Those questions are not as immediate as the fate of the contras in Nicaragua, nor as dramatic. But they are every bit as important to the Western Hemisphere’s future stability--even if Reagan hasn’t realized it yet.