Reagan Will Win Nicaraguan Rebel Aid in House Vote Today, Both Sides Predict

On the eve of a crucial House vote on the issue, Democrats admitted Tuesday that the political tide is turning in Congress in favor of President Reagan’s policy of supporting the rebels fighting Nicaragua’s leftist government.

Leaders on both sides of the aisle predicted that the House will vote today in favor of a bipartisan proposal to send $27 million in aid to the rebels--giving the President a victory that eluded him little more than a month ago when the House defeated a similar proposal.

Although the Democrats still planned to mount a last-ditch effort to defeat or dilute the aid request, even Rep. Michael D. Barnes (D-Md.), co-author of the Democratic alternative, conceded that sentiment is running in favor of the President’s decision to support the rebels, known as contras.

‘Extremely Determined’

“I’m very discouraged about the situation in Nicaragua, because I think President Reagan is extremely determined to have his way,” Barnes said in an interview. “When the President is totally committed to a policy, as he appears to be, it is very difficult for Congress to dissuade him.”

What turned the issue around for Reagan, according to House leaders, was the ability of the White House to divide its opposition in Congress by making a series of modest, well-timed concessions to Democrats while persistently portraying them as sympathizers with the leftist Sandinista regime in Nicaragua.

“In the last election, we lost by 49 states to 1, and one of the reasons we did is that we were perceived to be soft on communism,” said Rep. Dan Daniel of Virginia, one of several Democrats who endorsed the aid proposal after meeting with Reagan on Tuesday. “If we are perceived to be soft on communism on this issue, we may lose another one.”

Rep. Patricia Schroeder (D-Colo.) noted that many original opponents of contra aid reversed their stand when the President drew attention to a trip Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega made to Moscow shortly after the aid request was defeated in the House.

“A lot of these guys panicked,” Schroeder said. “Their biggest fear is that somebody will call them a wimp or a ‘commie symp.’ ”

In such an atmosphere, she said, Democrats were unable to make a case that they support neither the Sandinistas nor the contras but instead advocate a “a third position” favoring negotiations rather than bloodshed.

Public Unfamiliar

While some polls indicate that Americans oppose aid to the contras by a margin of 2 to 1, Democrats admit that most people are unfamiliar with the issue. Barnes described it as “almost an isolationist apathy,” and Schroeder added: “The average citizen does not know the difference between the Contadora process (negotiations for peace in Central America) and the contra rebels.”

Even before the House voted against the aid last month, the President had shown a willingness to compromise as much as necessary to win congressional approval of the aid. His decision to restrict it to “humanitarian” aid--instead of military assistance--was instrumental in winning two favorable votes in the Senate.

As sentiment shifted toward Reagan, he appeared less willing to make major concessions. On Tuesday, he sent a letter to Rep. Dave McCurdy (D-Okla.) that could be interpreted as backpedaling on commitments he had made last April to win Senate approval.

In an April letter to Senate Democrats, the President promised unequivocally, “I intend to resume bilateral talks with the government of Nicaragua.” In his letter to McCurdy, he promised to consult with the countries in the region “as to how and when the U.S. could resume useful direct talks with Nicaragua.”

According to House Majority Leader Jim Wright (D-Tex.), Reagan was able to sway many Democrats because they were uncomfortable with the original House action in which all alternatives to contra aid were rejected. These Democrats had favored Barnes’ proposal that would have provided aid to Nicaraguan refugees instead.

No Sandinista Compromise

Another factor in the Democratic turnaround, according to Wright, was the failure of the Sandinistas to make any convincing gestures toward compromise. On the contrary, the Nicaraguan government stepped up military activity along the Honduran and Costa Rican border in early May--giving Reagan a new rallying cry in support of contra aid.

In Managua, Ortega announced Monday that he would declare a cease-fire in the war against the contras if Congress again rejects Reagan’s aid request and if the United States resumes direct negotiations with his regime. His last-minute attempt to sway the vote received little attention on Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile, contras were reported to have overrun a civilian resettlement camp in far northern Nicaragua, killing 11 people, including a child and an elderly woman.

The mortar and rifle attack took place Sunday at a camp known as Valle el Cedro, near the remote town of El Cua. The community was constructed recently by the Sandinista government as part of a program to evacuate residents from mountain villages in which rebels have taken food and shelter.

Times staff writers Doyle McManus in Washington and Dan Williams in Managua contributed to this story.