Analysis : If Election Were Held Today : Bradley Would Whip Deukmejian, Poll Says

It has all the makings of a phenomenal political showdown: a popular Republican governor with high job approval ratings, challenged by a popular Democrat who--according to one new poll--would defeat the governor if the 1986 election were held today.

The Democrat, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, is expected to announce later this year that he wants a rematch in 1986 with Republican Gov. George Deukmejian, who barely beat Bradley in 1982.

And although popular incumbents often have the edge in a campaign, the latest California Poll reveals that both men are so well thought of as California leaders that it may be hard to distinguish the incumbent from the challenger in 1986.

The poll, conducted by Mervin Field of San Francisco, shows Deukmejian with his highest job rating since he was inaugurated in January, 1983. Fifty-six percent of the voters rated the governor as good or excellent in his job; 70% of the respondents had a favorable view of Deukmejian, while 27% were unfavorable.

Voters were not asked to rate Bradley in his job, but his favorable rating was even higher than Deukmejian’s: 81% of the voters viewed Bradley favorably and only 14% viewed him unfavorably.

Moreover, if the 1986 election were held today, the poll found that Bradley would defeat Deukmejian by 50% to 44%, with only 6% undecided.

The poll is all Bradley may need to push him into the race.

A top Bradley strategist, Deputy Mayor Tom Houston, said: “The poll confirms what private polls are showing, that Californians view the governor’s performance as lackluster. . . . We have not seen a single thing to discourage us (from running in 1986).”

In the Deukmejian camp, the governor is pointing out that the California Poll showed him losing both the 1982 Republican primary and general election right before the vote--and of course he won both.

And though such an early poll is great sport for political activists, most observers agree that it would be unwise to read too much into a match-up poll this far from the election.

For one thing, Deukmejian will not face any strong opposition in the Republican primary next June, while Bradley could face a damaging attack by state Sen. John Garamendi of Walnut Grove, who says it is his turn to lead the Democrats against Deukmejian.

Other Factors Involved

Also, the poll does not reflect the fact that gubernatorial campaigns are often affected by other items on the ballot. In 1982, for example, most observers concluded that Bradley was hurt by the presence on the ballot of a gun control initiative, which brought out many conservatives who cast votes for Deukmejian while they were at it.

In 1986, Bradley and other Democrats could be hurt by the presence on the ballot of controversial California Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird. Also, an initiative limiting public funding for abortions could increase the conservative turnout.

Moreover, since there is no campaign yet, major attacks on Bradley--which could be reflected in a poll or the actual vote--are not being made. Deukmejian, on the other hand, was assailed by Bradley as “inept” and “lacking in compassion” during his recent low-key handling of the tainted cheese and watermelon incidents in California.

Pollster Field said of his findings:

“I think the revealing thing is that you have voters responding largely in terms of what they like about their choice, rather than expressing negative feelings about the other man. The ratings for both men are highly positive . . . . You would have a race between two political heavyweights.”

Deukemjian’s strategists are betting that when it comes time to vote, Californians will decide they want to stick with the cautious Deukmejian rather than risk a change.

But one of them, Ken Khachigian, acknowledged Friday that the Deukmejian camp is making an effort to increase the governor’s visibility.

“I don’t see the need for any major changes in the governor’s style,” Khachigian said. “But he has been making more attempts to get out and be more public. . . . What you have (in the poll) is some clear air turbulence, but I don’t think it affects the course of the flight.”

Since he was elected in 1982, Deukmejian has proceeded on the assumption that after eight years with a very visible and controversial governor--Edmund G. Brown Jr.--Californians were ready for a low-key chief executive who avoids the spotlight and lets his subordinates manage crises.

But the enormously positive publicity Bradley got from the 1984 Olympic Games--which he helped bring to Los Angeles and helped make a financial and public relations success--may alter the Deukmejian strategy.

Bradley was seen as a booster for his city and his state.

This contrasts sharply with Deukmejian, who not only avoids obvious boosterism but has drawn criticism from many California officials for not opposing President Reagan’s proposed tax reform. That reform would prevent Californians from deducting their state taxes on federal returns, a provision strongly opposed by both Republicans and Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation.

Times staff writers Leo Wolinsky and John Balzar contributed to this article.