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‘Fall of Unnatural Government’ Predicted : Israeli Coalition Accord Looks Increasingly Frail

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Times Staff Writer

The shiny, gray 1984 Chevrolet Caprice roared up to the curb in front of the municipal building at precisely 7:01 p.m., and out of the back seat emerged Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, looking fresh in a dark blue blazer, light blue slacks and striped tie.

He then donned a black satin skullcap to share bread and wine with two local rabbis in a ritual of welcome to this historic settlement on Israel’s coastal plain, about 20 miles south of Tel Aviv.

The occasion was Gedera’s recent centennial, and the prime minister was here to help the town’s 7,000 residents celebrate.

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It was exactly the kind of crowd Peres has favored in weekly excursions like this since he took office one year ago this week. Most Gederans are religious Jews, while Peres is secular. Seventy percent are Sephardim, whose ancestors came from Spain, North Africa and the Middle East, while the prime minister is Ashkenazic (of European origin), having been born in Poland. The majority of Gederans voted in the last national election for the rightist Likud Bloc, while Peres heads the center-left Labor Alignment.

Earlier that day, Peres had lunch with his main partner in Israel’s unusual coalition government, Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, who is also alternate prime minister and leader of Likud. Now, Peres was wooing Shamir’s constituency.

The paradox seemed symbolic as the first anniversary of the national unity government approached.

Born in desperation when the parliamentary elections of July, 1984, gave neither major party a clear mandate, the national unity coalition has already lasted far longer than many expected.

The longer the partnership lasts, though, the more speculation there is about when and how--not if--the coalition will be broken. And Peres is clearly keeping his options open.

“The fall of an unnatural government is merely a question of time,” wrote Yoel Marcus, political correspondent for the liberal newspaper Haaretz.

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Asked his feeling about the coalition, Police Minister Chaim Bar-Lev told reporters, “I feel like everybody else--quite unhappy.” He said Israel’s faltering economy cannot afford the burden of new elections, “but that doesn’t mean that we have to have the government at any price.”

Ariel Sharon of Likud, the former defense minister who is now in charge of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, has repeatedly blasted Peres’ policies on Jewish settlement in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Science Minister Gideon Patt of Likud has publicly condemned the prime minister’s economic plan. Finance Minister Yitzhak Modai, also of Likud, has forecast new elections before May.

Peres was so upset at criticism from Likud members of the Cabinet that he recently held a well-publicized meeting with Shamir to warn that he would not tolerate more public attacks.

The only analysts who think that the government might last are those who say that, despite all the talk, there is still no other choice.

“We can generate a crisis at almost any time,” Ehud Olmert, a Likud member of Parliament, said in an interview. “The question is, what then?

“I don’t believe that there is a viable political alternative either for Shimon Peres or Yitzhak Shamir,” he added.

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The Cabinet would appear to have plenty of time to squabble. The national unity government was appointed for 50 months, until November, 1988. However, under a unique “rotation” provision in the deal, its future is likely to be decided in the next six to eight months.

Rotation in October, 1986

The rotation clause calls for Peres to turn over the prime minister’s office to Shamir in October, 1986, halfway through the government’s term. Peres would then assume Shamir’s current jobs as foreign minister and alternate prime minister.

Publicly, at least, Peres remains committed to the agreement. For him to be seen as reneging on the deal would only reinforce the opportunist image that has plagued him in the past. Even if Peres’ intentions are honorable, though, he is under increasing pressure from others in his party to find some way to break the agreement in hopes of forming a Labor-led government.

The incumbent always has a significant advantage in Israeli elections, these strategists argue, and Peres is riding high now. While the Cabinet he heads is a partnership with Likud, it is commonly viewed as a Labor government, and the polls show that nearly two-thirds of Israelis think that the prime minister is doing a good job.

If Peres hands over the top job to Shamir next year, as called for in the coalition agreement, it will be the Likud leader who enjoys the advantage of incumbency in the next election.

‘Strong Position Right Now’

“He (Peres) knows he’s in a very strong position right now,” a key Peres aide said. “In one year, he’s gone from the most despised politician to the most popular prime minister.”

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The aide contended that Peres would honor the rotation agreement “if the Likud would let him run the country the way he wants.” However, the prime minister has complained about Likud’s obstinacy over Israel’s relations with Egypt and the broader Middle East peace process, and he has said he will not rule over a government of national paralysis.

“No decision, as such, not to live up to the rotation agreement has in fact been made,” Labor Party Secretary General Uzi Bar-Am said last month. “But I am not ready to say today--as I was several months back--that the rotation agreement will without a doubt be implemented.

“The government functioned tolerably well then. But today we have reached a total diplomatic impasse, and we cannot wait a full year until there is some movement on the diplomatic front.”

The Jerusalem Post reported last month that Labor has set up a skeleton campaign headquarters to map strategy for a possible election early next year.

Risky Business

New elections would clearly be a risky business. Although Peres’ personal popularity is high, Israel’s citizens vote for a party list, not for individual candidates. And the latest polls show that parties on the extremes of the Israeli political spectrum have gained strength.

Rabbi Meir Kahane’s anti-Arab Kach party, for example, would win 11 seats in the Knesset (Parliament) if there were an election today, according to the polls. In last year’s elections, it got only one seat.

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Law Targets Racist Parties

Although the Knesset recently enacted a law banning racist parties from future elections--a law aimed at Kahane--there is a strong chance that the right-wing rabbi can find a way around it. And while the polls probably overstate Kach’s strength, there seems little doubt that, if allowed to run, it would make significant gains.

Meanwhile, despite Peres’ personal popularity, Labor and its political allies have slipped in the polls.

Another alternative is more complicated, but might be less risky for Labor. That would be to enlist enough support among the 15 parties represented in the current 120-member Knesset to form a narrow, Labor-led government. Peres was unable to sign up the necessary 61 votes for such a government a year ago, but there is a possibility that some of the parties might be more amenable now.

From his first days in office, the prime minister has focused on the religious parties, which appear to hold the balance of power between the two big political blocs. According to one Peres aide, the prime minister thinks that Labor made a “historic mistake” by letting the religious parties, once solid allies, drift into the Likud camp.

Here in Gedera, a religious councilman recalled that the secular Peres, on the day he was given the mandate to form a government last year, went to pray at Judaism’s most sacred site--the Western Wall, believed to be the only remaining portion of the Jerusalem temple destroyed by the Romans in AD 70.

Religious Instruction

And Peres has also taken religious instruction from a famous rabbi and given up traveling on the Sabbath. Recently, during its preliminary reading, he voted in favor of a controversial bill sponsored by the religious parties that would outlaw the sale of pork in Israel.

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To secularists who criticize his courtship of the religious parties, Peres hints at a darker alternative if Likud takes over.

“He says he’d rather refrain from eating pork for 10 years and not go to war than vice versa,” the aide said.

Enticement to Quit

Ideally, in the view of Labor strategists, some situation will arise that would entice Likud to quit the government. That would eliminate the problem of Peres’ appearing to have gone back on his coalition deal and also make it easier to enlist the backing of enough smaller parties to form a narrow government.

However, with Shamir already holding the key to the prime minister’s office and having only to wait until October of next year to move in--if the coalition holds together that long--it will clearly be no easy task to engineer a Likud walkout.

Missed Opportunity

According to Marcus, the political columnist, Peres squandered a classic opportunity late last month when Sharon insulted him. If he had demanded the Likud minister’s resignation, Marcus asserted in an interview, Shamir would have had to take Sharon’s side. It may be a long while before Peres gets another such chance, the columnist added.

In the meantime, Peres continues to build his image as the concerned and hard-working problem-solver intent on repairing the many deep divisions in Israeli society and reviving its idealism.

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Speaking to more than 2,000 Gederans assembled in a natural amphitheater, he recalled that when Yemenite Jews such as those making up Gedera’s largest single population group arrived in Israel more than 30 years ago, the Ashkenazic pioneers tried to teach them Yiddish.

It was an allusion to a painful period of Israeli history when Ashkenazic high-handedness toward Sephardic newcomers stirred antagonisms that still exist. However, Peres added, “Now, we find that the Yemenites are teaching Hebrew to the Ashkenazim.”

Message of Hope

His message was one of hope. Despite the country’s economic and other problems, he said, he feels the same sense of purpose in Gedera today as the one that drove the original Jewish pioneers here through “oceans of cynicism and disappointment” to their goal. “We have much to be proud of and much to be happy about,” Peres said.

Earlier, he visited with Zahariya and Sarah Harif and their 10 children. When Zahariya Harif told the prime minister that he supports his large family on the equivalent of only $400 a month, Peres grimaced and said, “No kidding?”

Peres Praised

Town council members told him they need non-polluting factories in Gedera so the town’s young men won’t have to seek jobs in the cities. They also praised Peres.

“When you took power, the tone changed,” Mayor Shalom Cohen said. “We’re enjoying the new style--the self-control, the quieter, calmer atmosphere.”

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Like many Israelis, Cohen mispronounced the prime minister’s name, calling him “Peretz.” If Peres minded, he did not let on. If it comes down to new elections, all he wants is that they remember the word Labor.

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