Quiet Moves Raise Hope for Mideast Talks

A recent series of public diplomatic initiatives and secret understandings, carefully coordinated by the Reagan Administration, has raised a serious glimmer of hope that Middle East peace talks will be convened within the next two months, according to Western diplomats and Arab officials.

The officials said that while negative news from the region, such as the hijacking of the Italian cruise liner Achille Lauro, had largely captured public attention in the West, major progress was quietly being made toward an Arab-Israeli accommodation on the holding of negotiations.

Major Developments

Among the signs of progress, the sources pointed to these recent developments:

--Acceptance by Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres of the idea of an “international forum” for peace talks. An international conference had been demanded by the Arabs but consistently rejected by the Israelis and the United States.

--Fresh indications that the Soviet Union may be close to re-establishing relations with Israel, which were severed after the 1967 Middle East War. The move would pave the way for Soviet participation in an international conference.

--The thawing of relations between Jordan and Syria has raised hopes that the Damascus regime will drop its opposition to the peace process and can be nudged into taking part in an international conference by the Soviet Union, which is the main supplier of Syria’s military hardware.

The diplomats and officials said the latest “breakthrough” apparently came during a visit to Amman two weeks ago by Richard W. Murphy, the assistant secretary of state for Middle East affairs.

According to the sources, Murphy gave King Hussein several assurances that the Jordanian monarch later passed on to Yasser Arafat, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization, during his visit last week.

The sources said Murphy told the king that the United States had also dropped its opposition to the holding of an international conference on the Middle East that will include the Soviet Union.

The Jordanians are said to have reassured the Americans that “direct and meaningful” peace negotiations between Jordan and Israel would take place in a subcommittee of the overall international conference once the talks got started.

Assurances for Hussein

Murphy also reportedly assured the king that the United States will agree to the direct participation of the PLO in the later stages of the conference.

In the opening stages of the meeting, the sources said, the United States is prepared to allow the PLO to appoint the Palestinian members of a Jordanian-Palestinian delegation, as long as the chosen delegates are not official members of the PLO.

Significantly, while Arafat publicly attacked the United States at a news conference on Tuesday, he was privately reassuring Hussein that he was keen on proceeding with negotiations with the Americans.

Both an international conference and the participation of the PLO are key points in a Feb. 11 agreement signed by Arafat and Hussein to pursue a joint peace initiative. The accord envisions a Palestinian state in the West Bank of the Jordan River and the Gaza Strip in confederation with Jordan.

May Stir Israeli Ire

Murphy’s reported commitments to Hussein are likely to stir a major controversy in Israel, where Peres last week gave public assurances that Israel would never sit down to negotiate with the PLO.

One diplomat said it was “inconceivable” that Peres was unaware of the promises Murphy made to Arafat and Hussein when the Israeli leader made his statement to the Israeli Parliament.

Peres is credited with a major breakthrough in his U.N. address last month, in which for the first time he publicly accepted the idea of negotiating with the “support of an international forum.”

The Arabs had been pressing the United States for a demonstration from Israel that the Israelis would negotiate in good faith.

The sources said the United States also appeared near to reaching a solution to the thorny problem of how to include the PLO in the talks.

Conditions for PLO

The United States has refused to meet with PLO officials until the PLO accepts U.N. Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, which guarantee the right of all countries in the Middle East to live within secure boundaries, as well as implicitly recognizing Israel’s right to exist.

The PLO has refused in the past to agree to these demands until Israel recognizes the PLO or the United States accepts the right of Palestinians to “self-determination,” which generally has been interpreted to mean an independent Palestinian state.

Jordanian officials have said that Arafat gave a written acceptance of the Security Council resolutions and a statement on Israel’s right to exist to King Hussein two months ago, and the Jordanians are believed to be awaiting the go-ahead from Arafat to release them.

The officials said it now seemed likely that the United States will issue a statement acknowledging the “inalienable right” of the Palestinian people to take part in the international conference.

Statement of Support

This American declaration would be considered by the Arabs as a statement of support for Palestinian self-determination, since in their view, the idea of the conference is to negotiate the creation of a Palestinian homeland.

Through this compromise, the Jordanians would make public the Arafat commitment on the U.N. resolutions, which would remove the reason for U.S. opposition to direct PLO participation.

In another development, Secretary of State George P. Shultz announced last week that he was appointing Wat T. Cluverius IV, the former U.S. consul general in Jerusalem, as an adviser to Murphy.

The appointment suggested to many in the region that the United States was gearing up for intense contacts leading to peace talks.

Poland OKs Exchanges

According to one diplomat here, the next move in the process appears to be up to the Soviet Union. In the last few days, Poland has agreed to exchange diplomatic interest sections with Israel, and Hungary has reportedly reached the same agreement.

The move is considered just one step below the formal establishment of full relations. Diplomats said that it would not be possible for an Eastern Bloc state to take such a step without the approval of the Kremlin.

Jordan has proposed that the international conference include the five permanent members of the Security Council--the United States, France, Britain, the Soviet Union and China.

Peres has said the Soviet Union and China will be unacceptable participants until they establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Egypt and Jordan have reportedly approached Moscow about re-establishing relations with Israel in order to get the peace process moving.

Arafat Meets Soviet Envoy

During his visit to Amman, Arafat met twice with the Soviet ambassador to Jordan. On the day following the second meeting, three Soviet diplomats who had been kidnaped in Beirut were released, leading to speculation that the PLO leader, who is known to be close to the Muslim fundamentalists who kidnaped the diplomats, had intervened in a peace offering to the Kremlin.

China has always maintained that Israel was created by U.N. partition before the Peking government became a member of the Security Council and that China thus has no responsibility for settling the Middle East conflict. Diplomats believe that the Chinese may simply decide not to attend a conference.

A Palestinian delegation is now in Cairo attempting to repair the damage caused by the Achille Lauro hijacking, according to diplomatic sources.

Another reason for the mission is reportedly to get President Hosni Mubarak to “sign on” to the Feb. 11 accord between Jordan and the PLO because Egypt is technically the custodian of the Gaza Strip.

Syrian Regime a Hurdle

Diplomats said the last major hurdle may prove to be persuading the Syrian government to take part in an international conference that would primarily benefit Arafat, who is despised by the Damascus government.

Jordan and Syria have begun a rapprochement which included meetings in Saudi Arabia that produced fairly hard-line statements on a peaceful settlement.

Diplomats and Arab officials said the only successful lever which can be used to shift Syria’s attitude is the influence of the Soviet Union, and even that is often ineffective when local conflicts are at stake.

At a minimum, the diplomats said, Israel would have to be prepared to make some concessions on Syria’s Golan Heights, which Israel occupied in 1967, as an inducement to get Syrian participation.