Gorbachev Holds Arms Key, Ex-Secretaries Feel

Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s ability to consolidate power and deal with other domestic concerns will have an important bearing on whether the Soviet Union and the United States reach an arms control agreement next year, several former secretaries of state said Saturday.

“He has to convince his people that change is in their best interest,” said Edmund S. Muskie, chief diplomat in the later years of the Carter Administration.

Gorbachev may also want to reach an arms control pact as quickly as possible to turn his attention to nagging economic problems that are “his No. 1 priority,” said Cyrus R. Vance, who preceded Muskie.

Vance, Muskie, Alexander M. Haig Jr., William P. Rogers and Dean Rusk analyzed the summit sessions at a public conference after receiving a briefing from a National Security Council Soviet expert who advised President Reagan at Geneva.

The conference was sponsored by the Southern Center for International Studies. Henry A. Kissinger, who was traveling on private business in Asia, was the only living former secretary to decline an invitation to the meeting.

Problems in Soviet-U.S. relations dominated the discussions, though nearly every major foreign policy issue facing the Reagan Administration was touched on.

All the former secretaries called the summit meeting a positive step toward better U.S.-Soviet relations, but Haig was particularly sharp in stressing the failure of the leaders to reach agreement on the major issues.

“The jury is still out; atmospherics are not going to change the future relations of the Soviet Union and ourselves,” he said, listing Afghanistan, Southeast Asia, Central America and Africa as places where “Soviet adventurism” is threatening peace.

He called for a more aggressive policy against terrorists, even steps that might endanger civilians. He said the even mild U.S. interest in getting the Soviet Union involved in the Middle East peace process is “a catastrophic disaster.”