Wet, Cold Winter Forecast for Most of the West

A well-known San Diego research meteorologist, whose weather predictions aided the Allied invasion of North Africa in World War II, is forecasting a cold and wet winter for much of the West and Midwest but a comparatively balmy season for the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf States.

The December-through-February forecast by Dr. Jerome Namias, head of the Climate Research Group at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, anticipates below-normal temperatures in Northern California and normal temperatures in Southern California.

Except for a section in the northern tip of the state, California’s overall rainfall is expected to be heavy, although without the destructive force that accompanied the El Nino current three winters ago, when homes were destroyed by pounding surf and mud slides.

“No El Nino has appeared, and we don’t expect such a thing this winter,” Namias said.

The work of Namias and his colleague, Dan Cayan, is based on a complex system of using ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric wind systems, along with thousands of temperature readings taken from ships, planes, buoys and satellites, to come up with a 90-day forecast.

“A lot of this is objective, but you reach a point (at which) there’s a certain art, where man comes in front of the machinery and makes a decision,” said Namias, noting that his previous predictions for seasonal temperatures have been accurate about 65% of the time, while his rain forecasts “are a little lower than that.”

Namias’ group has been particularly successful in predicting calamitous weather conditions, such as droughts and blizzards.

This winter, Namias says, it’s possible that a section of the northern Rockies, from about northern Idaho, through parts of Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota, could experience severe cold during parts of the winter.

In contrast, it’s also a possibility that Florida will have a drier and warmer winter than normal.

Namias’ forecast shows a belt of cold weather in the West extending from Northern California to Washington state and eastward across the Rockies, through the Plains to parts of Michigan and Illinois. Normal winter temperatures are expected to stretch from Southern California, through most of Arizona and the middle of Texas, reaching like a funnel through the Appalachians to Maine.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for a broad swath of the nation from southern Texas, through the Gulf States and north to New York and parts of Vermont.

Regarding rainfall, Namias’ group says much of the Midwest to California will experience heavy precipitation. The Northwest, from Oregon and Washington to Wyoming, is expected to have only moderate rain, as is all of the East Coast.

“I’m not forecasting the most common thing,” said Namias, noting that heavy rainfall in the West has actually occurred only about a dozen times since 1886.

“What people have to remember is that this is forecast for an entire season, and it only takes a few degrees either way to make a wet winter or a dry one,” Namias explained. “This is the kind of forecast where people will say, ‘Hey, this is a warm winter,’ or ‘This winter sure seems cold.’ ”