Not Counting His Votes Till They Hatch : Longshore Is Skeptical of Foe’s Congressional Announcement

The man who lost to Assemblyman Richard Robinson (D-Garden Grove) by a mere 256 votes last year and who plans to run again next year refused Monday to count the blessings bestowed by Robinson’s announcement that he would not seek reelection to the California Legislature.

“I’ll believe that when I see it,” Richard E. Longshore said of Robinson’s announcement Sunday in an interview with The Times that rather than run for the Assembly he will challenge Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) for Congress next year.

“I think that when the applications (for political office) are filed, then I’ll believe everything that people tell me,” said Longshore, who lost to Robinson in 1982 and again last year.

The Santa Ana Republican went so far as to speculate that it could all be a plot to divert contributions to his campaign.

“I think (Robinson’s announcement) is a good way to cut off money for Dick Longshore’s campaign,” the 59-year-old retired U.S. Navy officer said. “Not running against an incumbent might be a way to cut off funds.”

But a key strategist in Longshore’s campaign, Assemblyman John R. Lewis (R-Orange), said the withdrawal of Robinson “goes a long way toward making Longshore look like a winner.”

Taking a view opposite of Longshore’s, Lewis said the lack of an incumbent opponent “should be able to create a ‘political bandwagon’ effect, and it should be a big help to Longshore in the fund-raising department.” Longshore’s “stock definitely goes up with Robinson’s deciding not to run for reelection,” Lewis said.

Last year Robinson spent more than $800,000 in the race against Longshore, who shelled out more than $300,000. More than 73,000 votes were cast and Longshore wound up the loser by 256.

Robinson predicted earlier this year that he would do better if he ran against Longshore again because Republicans would not have President Reagan at the top of the ticket, as he was in 1984. And Lewis earlier had said he would prefer that Longshore not have to face an incumbent. Still, many political observers said they thought Robinson would be in jeopardy.

Support Quickly Gained

For one thing, as the holder of the only Democratic state or federal seat wholly within Orange County (state Sen. Paul B. Carpenter (D-Cypress) represents a district lying within both Los Angeles and Orange counties), Robinson seemed a sure bet again to be targeted for defeat by the Republicans.

For another, Longshore quickly rounded up support from the county Republican hierarchy even before announcing in June that he would try for a third time to beat Robinson and appeared to have scared off any Republican opposition in the race.

County Republican Chairman Tom Fuentes said Monday that there was a consensus that Robinson decided to challenge Dornan because he felt he would lose to Longshore.

Even if Robinson changes his mind before the filing deadline of March 7, Fuentes predicted that “Dick Longshore is going to get elected to the Assembly either way.”

In an interview Monday, Longshore sounded more as if he were running against Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco) than against Robinson or anyone else from Orange County.

Wants Speaker Ousted

“I’m not really running against Richard Robinson, I’m running against Democratic party principles,” Longshore said. “I’d like to see Willie Brown ousted. The only way to do that is to get more Republicans in Sacramento.”

Longshore said the cost of the campaign for the district that covers all or part of Santa Ana, Stanton, Anaheim, Garden Grove and Westminster “really depends on how much money Willie Brown is willing to dump into this district” to support the Democratic candidate.

Reminded that Brown represents San Francisco, not Orange County, Longshore said the Speaker “certainly affects Orange County, he certainly affects Los Angeles County and every other county in this state. That’s one of the problems.”

One man mentioned as a potential opponent of Longshore is Santa Ana Mayor Daniel E. Griset, who said two weeks ago that he had not decided whether to seek another office.