What Would Philippines Be Like Under Aquino?

Assume that the highly popular Corazon Aquino has won not just the majority of the Filipinos’ votes but also the actual counting of the votes, and is declared the winner in the election for the presidency of the Philippines. And assume the improbable--that she actually has been allowed to take office. Then several interesting questions arise: Will she be able to govern? What will her major policies be? What groups will make up her ruling coalition?

If Aquino were allowed to take office, it would mean that the first steps of a complex process of negotiation and accommodation had been successfully completed, for she could not be inaugurated without the acquiescence of the majority of the military and the bureaucracy. One of her first steps would have to be to establish control over these people, most of whom were appointed by Ferdinand E. Marcos and have been loyal to him during his 20-year rule.

Marcos has hinted that elements in the military might not allow an opposition candidate like Aquino to take over because of her alleged “communist leaning and support.” Similarly, an Aquino presidency is an unacceptable threat to the many who have built fortunes because of presidential favor and protection under Marcos.

The military, however, is not unanimous. A well-publicized reform movement in the armed forces has said that it will take a “very high” profile in the election, and will campaign to make soldiers and civilians aware of the value of clean and honest elections.

Given her tremendous popularity, the disarray within the president’s party that his loss would create, and the split within the military, there is a chance that Aquino will actually succeed in taking office.

We have several indications of what the major policy initiatives of an Aquino presidency would be. In a speech before the business community on Jan. 6, she said that her administration would “look on the private sector as the engine of the economy.” She pledged to break up the economic monopolies of the president, his family and close friends, as well as to reduce the overall role of the government in the economy. Yet it is clear that Aquino and her supporters are not doctrinaire believers in market forces. “Beyond a certain point, respect for market forces must yield to the demands of conscience,” she has said. “The government will move aggressively to correct persistent structural injustices.” She also has promised that control of natural resources and utilities will always be reserved for Filipinos, and while foreign investment is welcome, it will only supplement domestic capital in priority areas where such capital is inadequate.

Her first concern, she said, will be the related problems of poverty, unemployment and underemployment, since alleviation of these problems is one of the essentials of her response to the problem of insurgency.

She expects new leadership to be able to attract significant reinvestment and a more supportive response from international creditors, and to be able to negotiate arrangements whereby debt servicing will be linked to anticipated foreign-exchange revenues.

The Minimum Program of Government, a compromise document that was hammered out between her supporters and the more conservative old-school politicians in the party of her vice presidential candidate, Salvador Laurel, is a second indication of the likely nature of an Aquino presidency. The program explicitly calls for the drafting of a new Philippine constitution, an end to all vestiges of the authoritarian Marcos regime, and strict legal protection of all civil and political liberties. It also calls for a government that will select a “preferential option for the poor, the weak and the dispossessed.”

On the key foreign-policy question of what to do about the U.S. military bases in the Philippines, the only compromise acceptable to the supporters of Aquino and Laurel was a broad statement that, “subject to our fundamental right to national survival, we shall respect the U.S. military-bases agreement up to 1991 when it expires. (Since many events may occur between now and 1991, we shall keep all our options open.)”

In contrast to the wild claims of Marcos that Aquino is advised by communists and would turn the nation over to the New People’s Army, it seems that if allowed to take office she would lead a moderate government based on a very broad and diverse coalition of supporters. She would pursue policies that have the support of many Filipinos, especially those who value a substantially free market economy, moderate redistributions of income and wealth, a return to civil liberties and the rule of law, and a slightly more nationalistic foreign policy.

Her biggest challenge, in addition to gaining full control of the military and rebuilding the economy, would be to win the support (or at least the acquiescence) of the sectoral and cause-oriented groups campaigning for more far-reaching reforms and an end to foreign domination of the Philippines.

Week by week Aquino has been developing a reputation as a skilled politician guided by humane values. If elected and inaugurated, she will need every bit of her skill to hold together a coalition now unified primarily by its opposition to Marcos’ continued rule.