Times Poll Shows Davis Also Hurt : Fiedler Popularity With GOP Plummets

Rep. Bobbi Fiedler’s popularity with Republican voters has been severely damaged by her indictment on charges of dangling a $100,000 campaign contribution to lure an opponent out of their race for the U.S. Senate nomination, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

But her whistle-blowing opponent, state Sen. Ed Davis (R-Valencia), also has been hurt politically by the messy affair, the poll showed.

If the indictment has produced any political beneficiary among the many contenders for the Republican Senate nomination, it would appear to be Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael D. Antonovich, who is not involved in the ruckus and has emerged with a solid base of grass-roots GOP support.

Antonovich currently is running the best race against Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston among the announced GOP candidates, trailing the incumbent by 17 percentage points--49% to 32%--in a hypothetical match-up for the November election, according to the survey.

Although it has been conventional Republican wisdom for the last year that Cranston is politically vulnerable as he bids for a fourth term, this poll found him presently to be in fairly good shape.

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 1,895 California adults by telephone during the week from Jan. 29 through Tuesday. Among those surveyed were 1,263 registered voters, including 493 Republicans and 599 Democrats. (The remainder of the registered voters mainly were independents.)

The margin of error for responses from all those interviewed was 3%. For just the registered voters it was 4%. And for Republicans and Democrats the potential sampling error was 5%.

Generally, Republicans did not have the foggiest notion whom they should nominate in the June primary election to face Cranston in November. There definitely was no real front-runner. And when the various GOP candidates were matched against each other, the results showed no real statistical difference. Six-in-10 Republican voters said they did not know enough about any of the candidates to choose a favorite. Only 42% of the GOP voters were aware that Fiedler had been indicted. The Los Angeles County Grand Jury indictment, returned on Jan. 23, charged that the Northridge congresswoman and her chief political aide, Paul Clarke, tried to coax Davis out of the GOP race by offering a contribution to retire his campaign debt, estimated by the district attorney at approximately $100,000. Fiedler and Clarke have insisted they are innocent.

But the number of people who are aware of the recent indictment is certain to grow as the campaign progresses and voters focus more attention on the candidates. And everyone surveyed by The Times Poll ultimately was reminded of her legal troubles by the interviewers.

After being told of the indictment, 36% of the Republicans said it would cause them to be “less likely” to vote for Fiedler. Only 4% said they would be “more likely” to support her, meaning a net negative impact of 32%.

Furthermore, Fiedler was the only GOP candidate to be viewed unfavorably by Republican voters. Like all her campaign rivals, she was not particularly well-known. And in her case, 47% did not know enough about her to offer an opinion. But among the rest, the impressions were 25% favorable and 28% unfavorable.

Women Particularly Critical

Ironically, Republican women were particularly critical of the congresswoman, with just 19% viewing her favorably and 32% unfavorably. By contrast, a survey taken several weeks before the indictment by the nonpartisan California Poll showed Republican voters to be holding a basically positive impression of Fiedler--33% favorable and 13% unfavorable.

Law enforcement authorities began investigating Fiedler after Davis, a former Los Angeles police chief, went to the district attorney with his accusations. Evidence in the case comes mainly from tapes secretly made by Davis’ campaign manager, Martha Zilm, of her conversations with Fiedler and Clarke.

But far from helping him politically, Davis’ whistle-blowing has cost him points with GOP voters, The Times Poll found. While about two-thirds of those surveyed insisted the indictment would have no effect on whether they voted for Davis, 22% reported they now would be “less likely” to support him and only 5% said they would be “more likely.”

Also, voter impressions of Davis as recorded by The Times Poll--while still positive--have declined slightly since the pre-indictment survey of the California Poll. In these latest interviews, the impressions were 31% favorable and 18% unfavorable. Formerly, they were 38% favorable and 13% unfavorable.

Second Best to Cranston

Davis, however, ran second best to Cranston among the GOP candidates, trailing the Democratic incumbent by 19 points in the survey of all registered voters. Fiedler ran behind the veteran senator by 28 points. Among other candidates, Los Angeles television commentator Bruce Herschensohn trailed by 23 points and Rep. Ed Zschau of Los Altos by 26 points.

The man many Republican strategists believe would be their dream candidate, baseball commissioner Peter Ueberroth, emphatically has said he will not run. But, for this poll, he was placed in a match-up with Cranston and wound up running better than any Republican, but still trailing the incumbent Democrat by 12 points.

Antonovich demonstrated the best ability to retain GOP voter loyalty during the November election, with 57% of Republicans saying they would stick with him in a contest against Cranston. Fifty-three percent said they would back Davis, but only 42% thought they would side with Fiedler.

Antonovich and Herschensohn, while generally unknown by two-thirds of the state’s Republican voters, were viewed very favorably by those who were aware of them.

Present Inclinations Told

None of the GOP candidates showed any evidence of breaking out of the pack and becoming a front-runner for the nomination. When voters were asked who they would support if the election were held now, this was the result:

Herschensohn 9%, Fiedler 8%, Antonovich 5%, Davis 5%, Zschau 5%, Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton 3%, economist Arthur Laffer 3%, Assemblyman Robert W. Naylor of Menlo Park 2% and Claremont-McKenna professor Bill Allen 0%. With 60% of those surveyed expressing no opinion, and the margin of error 5%, these responses illustrated only a minimal separation between the candidates.

Republican strategists have theorized that Cranston would be particularly vulnerable this year because of his age and his failed effort--some say embarrassing effort--to win the 1984 Democratic presidential nomination. But this survey found little current evidence of either perceived vulnerability.

Registered voters were reminded that Cranston currently is 71 years old and would be 78 at the end of another six-year term. One-fourth of those interviewed felt this was too old to serve another term, but even more people than that believed in 1984 that President Reagan--then 73--was too old to be reelected. And he won by a landslide.

Voters also said that Cranston’s 1984 presidential bid would have absolutely no effect on their vote in this year’s Senate race.

Their impressions of the senator were 59% favorable, 30% unfavorable.

THE RACE FOR SENATE

These Los Angeles Times Poll results on the U.S. Senate primary race are based on telephone interviews with 1,263 registered California voters, including 493 registered Republican voters. Responses do not total 100% in all cases.

Republicans were asked for impressions of these candidates:

Net Candidate Don’t Know Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Ueberroth* 32% 62% 6% +56 Antonovich 69 27 4 +23 Herschensohn 68 25 7 +18 Davis 51 31 18 +13 Zschau 85 14 1 +13 Fiedler 47 25 28 -3

All voters were asked for impressions of Sen. Alan Cranston:

Net Candidate Not Aware Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Cranston 11% 59% 30% +29

All voters were asked how they would vote between Cranston and the following Republican candidates if the election were held today:

Would Favor Would Favor GOP Candidate Republican Cranston Margin Ueberroth* 33% 5% -12 Antonovich 32 49 -17 Davis 30 49 -19 Herschensohn 26 49 -23 Zschau 21 47 -26 Fiedler 23 51 -28

Republicans were asked how the indictment of Rep. Bobbi Fiedler might affect their vote for Fiedler or state Sen. Ed Davis:

Effect on Vote Fiedler Davis More Likely 4% 5% No Effect 50 64 Less Likely 36 22 Don’t Know 10 9

*Peter U e berroth is not an announced candidate.