Commentary : San Clemente Faces Era of Limits

As frequently happens when a growth boom is on the horizon, the local community in San Clemente is divided about its costs and benefits. Proponents argue that development generates jobs and enhances the local tax base. Opponents decry the loss of open space and fear increased traffic, noise and air pollution. The debate has resulted in two growth-control measures appearing on Tuesday’s ballot.

The approach limiting the number of residences per year is not uncommon in areas on the verge of a large growth spurt. Setting such limits is criticized because they basically impose the responsibility for providing housing on neighboring communities. In the long run, such limits don’t usually work if there are other sufficiently strong incentives that induce growth.

There is not enough employment potential and accessibility to the labor market to make San Clemente one of the county’s major urban centers. Even if the initiative limiting growth passes, in the long run it won’t materially affect what happens in San Clemente.

What can be expected for San Clemente in the next 10 to 15 years? Will the local community succeed in significantly cutting back current plans which call for a population of 70,000 by the year 2000 (almost double today’s population), or is the pressure for development so strong that these plans will be more than fulfilled?

Development conditions have changed dramatically in recent years. Increased local control and declining public revenues have resulted in more comprehensive planning and more linking of major improvements with specific projects.

The impact on the developer has been a significant increase in front-end costs. Development approvals now routinely require contributions to regional transportation improvements, local traffic improvements beyond the boundaries of the project itself and open-space dedications.

School facilities are also beginning to be linked to development proposals as evidenced by the recent decision in Mission Viejo to require developers to provide for the construction of school facilities necessitated by their developments.

Of course these costs are eventually passed on to the buyer, so we can expect that new housing and business developments will become increasingly expensive.

The fiscal picture for communities has changed. Property taxes now contribute only a small portion of local revenue. Sales taxes are now the major tax revenue source, contributing over half of total revenue in many cities.

Residential development, which has always been a local revenue loser, is now no longer economically sustainable by itself. Mixed developments that include both residential and commercial activities are preferred, and the traditional “bedroom suburb” is a thing of the past.

These considerations are already affecting development in San Clemente, as evidenced by the recent withdrawal of the Talega Valley Specific Plan. Again the scale of development is a factor--such developments tend to be large-scale almost by definition.

While these factors are not unique to San Clemente or southern Orange County, the area’s geography is unique. San Clemente is nestled in the southern tip of the county, surrounded on three sides by major barriers: the ocean, Camp Pendleton and Cleveland National Forest. San Clemente is at the limit of Orange County’s developable area.

San Clemente’s locational isolation is reinforced by southern Orange County’s underdeveloped transportation system. Only one freeway and one highway connect San Clemente to the rest of the county. The nearest airport, John Wayne, is nearly an hour’s drive away and provides limited services. Although new freeways to serve this area are planned, predictions are that they will at most preserve today’s level of accessibility.

These characteristics have predictable implications for future development. San Clemente will remain relatively unattractive as an employment center. It provides limited access to the regional labor pool, and the lack of transportation facilities make it an unlikely location for any business or industry which has a distribution component. Rather, it will remain a primarily residential community, exporting workers to jobs located to the north.

Longer-than-average commute distances will probably be a permanent fact of life.

The geographic isolation of San Clemente, together with today’s increasingly high costs of development, indicates that the development potential of the area is not unlimited. New developments will have to pass severe market tests.

While its oceanside location and fresh air make it one of the most attractive residential locations in the county, its limited accessibility, together with the fiscal problems associated with predominantly residential development make it doubtful that San Clemente’s ambitious growth plans will be realized.