The Big Surprise That Should Not Have Been

Little has gone according to plan in the San Diego Unified Port District’s effort to get a waterfront convention center built. But construction bids that came in last week at more than $20 million higher than expected have created the most serious problems yet for the project.

Port commissioners already had authorized changes in the design--originally billed at $95 million--that had increased the estimated total cost of the center--including excavation, furniture, professional fees and the like--to $125 million, still a most reasonable sum for an asset so vital to a tourist-oriented region.

There seemed to be little doubt among those involved with the project that the cost estimate could be met. Just one year ago, Ward Deems, the local point man for the architectural team chosen to design the center, confidently told port commissioners looking at a $107-million budget for the excavation and construction phases of the project, “the $107 million will at least be met, and we may well be under it.”

Then last October, with the excavation phase under way, Deems told the commissioners that a softening in the building business meant the bids on the construction phase could come in 2% or 3% under the anticipated $101 million.

So port commissioners and city officials, who will be responsible for running the center, were aghast when the lowest bid on the construction turned out to be nearly $124 million. By week’s end, they were still trying to figure out just what went wrong, and Port Commission Chairman Bill Rick was saying the final turnkey cost of the center could be $160 million.

The short answer to what happened appears to be that the architects vastly underestimated the amount of concrete and steel the building and its underground parking garage would require. City inspectors said more than twice as much reinforcing steel as had been estimated would be necessary to meet safety codes.

The more difficult questions are why it happened and what should now be done.

We continue to be firm in the belief that San Diego needs a major convention center. Until now, the only problem we have had with the proposed facility was that it was not as large and as spectacular as it might have been. But construction estimates that are off by more than 20% shake the credibility of those who make them.

At this point, the Port Commission needs to take a very critical look at the entire project and make some judgments, not just on whether it can afford the unexpected extra cost, but whether it has the right design, the right architects and the right site. If commissioners had known in 1984 that a convention center was going to cost them $160 million, they might well have chosen a different design.

So far, port commissioners appear to be taking a gentlemanly attitude of not casting blame for the faulty estimates. But they should not have been left in the dark about changes in the plans being mandated by the city, and those responsible for keeping up with the costs should be held accountable for allowing last week’s unpleasant news to come as such a surprise.