Experts Foresee Better Business for Next 2 Years

Buoyed by signs of new growth and low interest rates, top business experts today said the U.S. economy should be on the upswing for the next two years.

But while executives of the country’s leading corporations predicted a “rosy” time ahead, they also voiced a “sense of uneasiness” on several fronts.

The main worry was over the future of the tax overhaul bill in Congress. Most executives favored the Senate Finance Committee’s draft but felt that the ultimate outcome in a conference with the House might not be as beneficial to business interests.

Speed a Surprise

The forecast was based on several key assumptions--one of them that Congress would fail to approve a new tax bill this year.

James D. Robinson III, council vice chairman, acknowledged that the speed with which the tax bill is moving through Congress has surprised business leaders. He said the report on the economy, written in April, should have an asterisk by the tax reform section, with “whoops” in a footnote at the end.

Nonetheless, he said, a new tax plan should not affect the economy this year. And depending on the final language, he said, a tax bill could conceivably stimulate consumer spending in 1987.

Interest, Energy, Dollar

The 20 corporate economists who put together the upbeat report believe that “the power that is driving this economic scenario basically is lower interest rates, lower oil and energy prices, and the lower dollar,” Robinson said.

He said the major components of anticipated growth include housing, improved net exports, increased inventory investment and reasonably strong consumer spending.

“The weak spots are capital goods spending and commercial construction,” Robinson said.

He said the business economists are unanimous in their views that interest rates will be low through most of 1987, picking up only marginally in the last part of the year.