Analysis : Now, the Winning and the Losing Could Get Uglier

The 13th World Cup soccer tournament enters a new phase today.

Now, victory is everything, and, because of that, the fear of failure and what failure might mean hangs as heavy as the yellow-brown smog that embraces this city.

It is all too easy to remember what happened here just a dozen nights ago. Columnist Alan Robinson, writing in the Mexico City News, offered the most graphic account.

Wrote Robinson:

With 40,000 cops guarding World Cup players and the assortment of pot-bellies running the event, there was no one around Tuesday night to protect the young girl who was gang-raped in the Paseo de la Reforma by citizens celebrating Mexico 2, Belgium 1 .

It happened within screaming distance of the Independence Monument. But the multitudes there were jumping up and down to the exhortation, “Jump or you’re a queer!” so no one heard.

It was Macho Night and the crowd chanted its desire to do unto Paraguay and Iraq more or less what was being done to that girl in the muddy shrubbery close to the Cine Chapultepec.

There were fireworks, mud-fights, fistfights. Four boys fell from the monument and will never be the same again. Others climbed higher, swarming over the marble figures of the Independence heroes, breaking Hidalgo’s fingers, stealing Guerrero’s sword, smashing the lamp in which the flame of independence burns.

Others forced open the door at the base of the monument and tried to pry open the urns containing the ashes of great men. National symbols that are supposed to produce deep vibrations in the Mexican psyche were spattered with paint and the streets belonged to shoddy little Pique.

Gangs battled to occupy the base of the monument. Reinforcements came in stolen buses, their windows shattered. Some cars appeared to be trying to run pedestrians down. Towards dawn, the riot police moved in with canes, fists and tear-gas, whacking everything that moved. The beery bacchanal broke up as some people limped, staggered and ran from the retribution ordered by enraged authority.

All this, remember, occurred after Mexico had beaten Belgium. Just what will happen if and when Mexico loses is something authorities here would rather not think about.

But unless the extraordinary happens, Mexico will indeed be beaten sometime between now and the June 29 championship game. It might happen today, when Bulgaria is the challenger at Azteca Stadium, but it is much more likely to occur in the quarterfinals, when West Germany is almost certain to be the opponent.

Sixteen teams have survived the first round of World Cup play, a round that saw eight weaker teams eliminated. Now, the knockout phase begins. A single loss will be all it takes to eliminate another 15 teams, so in two weeks’ time only one country will claim the right to be called world champion.

Ties are no longer acceptable. If games are tied at the end of regulation time, an additional 30 minutes will be played. If that fails to produce a result, the matter will be settled by penalty kicks.

The eight games of the second round offer some intriguing matchups. What follows is a brief look at each of the eight games with an educated guess at the outcome:

MEXICO vs. BULGARIA--Coach Bora Milutinovic’s squad, plagued by the fear of failing in front of its own fans, has yet to produce the type of soccer of which it is capable. Mexico’s first-round victories over Belgium, 2-1, and Iraq, 1-0, and its 1-1 tie with Paraguay were not exactly confidence-builders.

Still, with Hugo Sanchez returning to the lineup today at noon and the usual full house of more than 110,000 chanting its support, Mexico should be able to squeeze by Bulgaria, even if it takes penalty kicks to do so.

If the game comes down to that, will Milutinovic, who has had his players practicing penalty-taking all week, give Sanchez the chance to redeem himself for the missed penalty kick against Paraguay?

Bulgaria’s record going in consists of a 1-1 tie with Italy in the tournament opener, a 1-1 tie with South Korea and a 2-0 loss to Argentina.

SOVIET UNION vs. BELGIUM--Having thrashed Hungary, 6-0, settled for a 1-1 tie with France and struggled to establish any sort of rhythm in a 2-0 win over Canada, the Soviets are a difficult team to handicap.

Belgium, the Soviets’ opponent today at noon at Leon, is no easier to gauge. The Belgians lost to Mexico, 2-1, defeated Iraq by the same score and then were tied by Paraguay, 2-2, during first-round play.

Soviet spokesman Nikita Simonia said Friday that most of the World Cup games so far have been “slow, boring and of poor quality.” Whether that means his team will do something about it today is unknown, but the Soviet Union should win.

ARGENTINA vs. URUGUAY--If ever there was a game that could degenerate into a brawl, this is it. The Uruguayans have been walking about with a huge chip on their collective shoulder, feeling they are being unfairly criticized for rough play.

The Argentines, meanwhile, say they will give as good as they get if Uruguay adopts the same tactics it used on Friday against Scotland. Uruguay has a reputation for violence, said Argentine star Diego Maradona, adding, “That won’t change now.”

Argentina, which defeated South Korea, 3-1, and Bulgaria, 2-0, and tied Italy, 1-1, is looking more and more likely to reach the June 29 final, but to beat Uruguay it will have to obey Coach Carlos Bilardo’s instructions and avoid being lured into a fight.

Uruguay scraped into the finals by tying West Germany, 1-1, and Scotland, 0-0, despite being crushed by Denmark, 6-1. Monday’s game in Puebla should be its last of this tournament.

BRAZIL vs. POLAND--The luck of the draw has once again favored Brazil, which won its first-round group without yielding either a goal or a point. Back-to-back 1-0 victories over Spain and Algeria were followed by a 3-0 win over Northern Ireland.

Now, Coach Tele Santana’s squad has only to beat a disorganized Polish team in order to reach the quarterfinals. Poland finished third in its group, tying Morocco, 0-0, beating Portugal, 1-0, and losing to England, 3-0.

Reports from Brazil’s team doctor Friday indicated that both Zico and Muller will be ready to face the Poles on Monday in Guadalajara. Zico made his 1986 World Cup debut last Thursday, coming in as a substitute with 20 minutes to play. Muller was taken off the field after injuring his leg early in the game against Northern Ireland.

Brazil should have little difficulty winning its fourth in a row.

ITALY vs. FRANCE--By far the most attractive and potentially important game of the second round, with either the defending world champion Italians or the defending European champion French facing certain elimination.

Henri Michel, France’s coach, last week bemoaned the fact that the teams have to meet this early in the tournament. The match pits the world’s No. 1 player, Michel Platini of France, against the tournament’s No. 1 goal scorer, Italy’s Alessandro Altobelli, who shares that honor with Denmark’s Preben Elkjaer.

Both teams finished second in their respective first-round groups. France beat Canada, 1-0, tied the Soviet Union, 1-1, and eliminated Hungary, 3-0. Italy was less fortunate, tying both Bulgaria and Argentina, 1-1, and upending South Korea, 3-2.

The game, to be played on Tuesday at the Olympic Stadium here, is too close to call, but on merit alone, France deserves the nod.

MOROCCO vs. WEST GERMANY--There is the suspicion going around that the West Germans under Franz Beckenbauer’s direction were not particularly interested in beating Denmark on Friday afternoon.

Had they done so, they would have finished on top of their group and would have had to face European championship runner-up Spain. By losing, 2-0, to the Danes, the West Germans finished second and now will have to meet Morocco, instead. On paper, it is a considerably less-difficult task.

Morocco, however, has shown that it has learned the lessons that Brazilian Coach Jose Faria has taught it. It managed scoreless ties against Poland and England, then took Portugal apart, 3-1, to become the first African nation ever to reach the second round.

In addition to its loss to Denmark, West Germany tied Uruguay, 1-1, and beat Scotland, 2-1. Beckenbauer’s hope now is that Morocco doesn’t emulate its African neighbor, Algeria, which scored a sensational 1-0 win over the West Germans in Spain in 1982. The chances of that happening, however, are slim.

ENGLAND vs. PARAGUAY--The fact that the English are in the second round is still a source of amazement and amusement, given the team’s horrendous start in the tournament when it was beaten by Portugal, 1-0, and tied by Morocco, 0-0.

A 3-0 win over Poland, with Gary Lineker getting a hat trick, restored English spirits, but Paraguay is more than capable of sending them plummeting once more. Both of the other British entries, Northern Ireland and Scotland, were eliminated by South American teams--Brazil and Uruguay, respectively-- and now it could be England’s turn.

Paraguay finished second behind Mexico in its group, having beaten Iraq, 1-0, and tied Mexico, 1-1, and Belgium, 2-2. It has the players and the talent to upset England but needs the will. If England goes ahead early, Paraguay might fall apart. If England doesn’t, Paraguay could win.

DENMARK vs. SPAIN--The Danes have been a revelation in their first World Cup. They have beaten Scotland, 1-0. They have beaten Uruguay, 6-1. They have beaten West Germany, 2-0. But can they beat Spain?

It was the Spanish who ended Denmark’s European championship hopes in 1984 when they ousted the Danes in the semifinals. Avenging that loss will be on the Danish players’ minds, and they should have no difficulty doing so.

Spain has not been overly impressive so far, having lost to Brazil, 1-0, before rebounding to beat Northern Ireland, 2-1, and Algeria, 3-0. The Danish firepower should prove too much for the Spaniards to withstand on Wednesday.