The Times Poll : Bird Opposed 2 to 1; Reynoso, Grodin Slip

California voters, by a landslide 2-1 ratio, say they intend to vote against the reconfirmation of Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found. At the same time, their support of two associate justices is declining as Election Day approaches.

Justices Cruz Reynoso and Joseph R. Grodin, the targets of conservative opposition along with Bird, had margins of support of just 7 points and 10 points, respectively, in a statewide poll of likely voters taken Oct. 11-16. This marked a significant decline from a similar Times survey conducted five weeks earlier when the two justices enjoyed support margins of 11 points and 20 points, respectively, among likely voters.

Focus of Attention

The indication is that as public attention begins to focus on the low-profile reconfirmation efforts of these justices, many voters are being influenced by negative attitudes toward Bird.

The Times poll also found powerful voter support of roughly 3 to 1 for both Proposition 65, the anti-toxics ballot measure, and Proposition 63, the proposal to decree English as the official state language.

But Proposition 64, a Lyndon LaRouche-backed initiative to restrict the activities of AIDS patients, was being rejected by more than 2 to 1. Strong opposition also was firming up against Proposition 61, a proposal by anti-tax crusader Paul Gann to limit the salaries of top state and local officials.

Lieutenant Governor Race

The race for lieutenant governor was nip and tuck, with Democratic incumbent Leo McCarthy at 43% and Republican Mike Curb at 37%, with 18% undecided and 2% voting for minor party candidates.

The contest for controller appeared to be even closer: Democrat Gray Davis 34%, Republican state Sen. William Campbell 29%, undecided 34% and minor party candidates 3%.

Clearly, television and radio commercials during the final two weeks of the campaign will have a substantial effect on tightly contested statewide races, particularly below the level of governor and U.S. Senate.

The Times poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 1,594 registered voters by telephone. Lewis then selected 990 people that he judged to be the most likely to vote on Nov. 4, based on their answers to a series of questions concerning past voting habits and future intentions. The responses of these likely voters were used to calculate standings in the various contests. The margin of error is 4% in either direction.

Asked how they intended to cast their ballots, the likely voters responded:

- Bird: Yes 31%, no 60%, undecided 9%. This represents virtually no change from the Times survey of likely voters taken Sept. 5-9.

- Reynoso: Yes 33%, no 26%, undecided 41%. In the September survey of likely voters, it was yes 32%, no 21%, undecided 47%.

- Grodin: Yes 32%, no 22%, undecided 46%. In September it was yes 35%, no 15%, undecided 50%.

- Proposition 61, the salary initiative: Yes 31%, no 57%, undecided 12%. In September it was much closer--yes 40%, no 49%, undecided 11%.

- Proposition 63, the English initiative: Yes 71%, no 24%, undecided 5%. This is virtually identical to the September survey.

- Proposition 64, the AIDS measure: Yes 26%, no 60%, undecided 14%. This is a 12-point widening of the gap since early September.

- Proposition 65, the anti-toxics proposal: Yes 66%, no 20%, undecided 14%. Since September, there has been a minuscule 7-point narrowing of the gap.

Three other state Supreme Court associate justices--Malcolm Lucas, Stanley Mosk and Edward Panelli--also will be on the ballot seeking reconfirmation to 12-year terms. No organized opposition has developed against them, and the Times poll found each to be enjoying comfortable support margins of 33 points, 41 points and 36 points, respectively. This represents a slight strengthening of support for the three since September.

Early Decisions

Three-fourths of the likely voters told Times interviewers that they had made up their minds about Bird before Labor Day, perceived as the traditional kickoff point for fall election campaigns. The chief justice has been a favorite campaign target all year for many Republican candidates, including Gov. George Deukmejian, who persistently has denounced her for voting against death penalty sentences. Deukmejian also opposes Reynoso and Grodin, though less vocally.

No evidence was detected by the Times poll, however, that Deukmejian’s opposition to Bird, Grodin and Reynoso was having an effect on voters. Asked whether the governor’s opposition to the three made them “more likely” or “less likely” to vote for the justices, about as many people answered one way as the other. And three-fourths said the governor’s views made no difference at all.

Nevertheless, campaigning against Bird appears to be a good political tactic for Deukmejian personally. On a list of what they considered to be the “most important votes” they would cast on Nov. 4, those surveyed placed the Bird question third. And among those who thought it “most important,” Deukmejian was favored by 2 1/2 to 1 over his Democratic opponent, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who has remained neutral on the chief justice.

Additionally, people intending to vote against Bird also were planning to vote big for Deukmejian, by 3 to 1.

Divided Allegiance

The anti-toxics initiative was rated much less important by voters. (The “most important” contests were considered to be governor and U.S. Senate.) And among the small number who did regard Proposition 65 as “the most important” question on the ballot, their allegiance was divided equally between Deukmejian and Bradley, despite the fact that Bradley has made personal support of the anti-toxics measure a focal point of his campaign. Deukmejian opposes the measure.

People intending to vote for Proposition 65 also were divided between Deukmejian and Bradley. (Among all likely voters, Deukmejian held a 10-point lead in the survey, as reported Sunday.)

Additionally, the survey turned up these findings:

- Latinos favored the English measure by 8 to 5, even though many Latinos, particularly recent immigrants, use English as a second language. Non-Latino whites favored it by 3 1/2 to 1 and blacks by more than 2 to 1.

- Republicans favored the anti-toxics initiative by more than 2 to 1, even though the GOP governor does not. Democrats favored it by almost 5 to 1, and independents by 2 1/2 to 1.