Zschau Carries County, but It Isn’t Enough

Throughout the fall campaign season, the belief among political strategists was that if Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ed Zschau could win Orange County by more than 100,000 votes, he could beat Democratic Sen. Alan Cranston in the statewide election.

In speech after speech, county Republican Party Chairman Thomas A. Fuentes promised cheering workers that Orange County was California’s “anchor to the right,” with enough conservatives to offset votes from “liberal enclaves” in West Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Sandra Conlan, Zschau’s campaign press secretary, said last month that, if Zschau could beat Cranston by 130,000 votes in Orange County, he should win.

Tuesday they were proven wrong.

Although Zschau won Orange County by a margin of more than 171,000 votes, he got only 48% of the vote statewide, compared to Cranston’s 49%.

To county Democrats and Republicans alike, Zschau’s showing suggested that he should have concentrated his campaign more on other areas of California instead of focusing, especially in the final days, on Los Angeles, San Diego and predominantly Republican Orange County.

But it suggested something else, they said Wednesday: It cast doubt on the county’s legendary ability to swing a statewide race.

“Apparently, because of the impact of liberal strongholds in other parts of the state, one has to do better in other parts of the state than previously anticipated,” Fuentes said Wednesday.

“You cannot in any way write off Orange County as a critical base,” Fuentes said, noting that Zschau’s margin here was “a very respectable and positive showing for a Republican candidate.”

“But,” he stressed, “you have to do well consistently up and down the state. The ‘southern strategy’ entirely is not an answer.”

Kam Kuwata, Cranston’s press secretary, agreed. “It seems rather obvious that the conventional wisdom is wrong,” Kuwata said. “We did so damn well in the Bay Area. It offset whatever success” Zschau had in Orange County.

Kuwata said Zschau “spent a disproportionate effort in one region,” attending a fund-raiser with President Reagan Saturday in Anaheim and a rally with the President Monday in Costa Mesa, “just miles from one another.”

“In a close election, you must run a statewide campaign,” Kuwata said.

To Zschau’s pollster, Gary Lawrence of Decision Making Information in Santa Ana, the election also showed that “the old formulas about Orange County probably don’t work.” Lawrence called the Zschau vote “more complex than Orange County.”

Though it was difficult to tell why Zschau lost, Lawrence blamed a combination of factors, including low turnout, some conservative voters who “sat on their hands” and a large number of undecided voters who apparently voted for Cranston.

Still, a rebellion among Southern California conservatives, some of whom initially were strongly opposed to the moderate Zschau, was mostly quelled by election time, Lawrence said. He said an outreach effort to conservatives, begun in early October by former Bruce Herschensohn campaign manager Bay Buchanan Jackson, was working.

By mid-October, “the conservatives were basically coming home and roosting, and it was jelling for us in Orange County,” Lawrence said.

San Diego County Republicans--conservative and moderates alike--appeared to be strong Zschau supporters, Lawrence said, but the Zschau vote there was hampered Tuesday night by a record low turnout--only 51.25% of registered voters, the lowest in the state.

Also, “the undecideds broke against us,” Lawrence said. He said that by Monday night he had identified a high number of undecided voters in his polls, mostly women and voters under 45 who appeared to favor Cranston.

In other statewide races, Orange County voters showed their usual conservative Republican spirit. They voted to reelect Republican Gov. George Deukmejian by a nearly 3-1 margin over Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a Democrat. The vote for Deukmejian was 71.8% in Orange County, compared to 61% for Deukmejian statewide. Bradley received only 26.2% of the Orange County vote, compared to 37% statewide. Orange County voters rejected confirmation of California Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird and Associate Justices Cruz Reynoso and Joseph R. Grodin by a wider margin than voters across the state did. All three were targeted for defeat primarily because of their rulings in death penalty cases.

The vote against Bird was 78.1% in Orange County, compared to 66% statewide. For Reynoso, 71.2% of voters said no, compared to 60% statewide. Grodin was rejected in Orange County by 66.9% of voters, compared to 57% statewide.

Still, Orange County voters endorsed the reelection of three California Democrats. They chose Secretary of State March Fong Eu over Orange County Supervisor Bruce Nestande, a Republican, by a vote of 49.5% to 46.4%. Statewide, Eu beat Nestande by 69% to 26%.

Saying he had no regrets about his race, Nestande blamed his defeat on a court ruling last year that applied a county limitation on campaign contributions to his bid for secretary of state. “You just can’t run in California with an under-financed campaign, particularly against an incumbent,” Nestande said.

County voters also picked Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp over the Republican nominee, little-known San Fernando Valley attorney Bruce Gleason. Van de Kamp received 54.9% of the Orange County vote, compared to 41.6% for Gleason; statewide, Van de Kamp won reelection with 66% of the vote to Gleason’s 30%.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, Republican Mike Curb received support from 56.1% of Orange county voters, compared to 40.5% who voted for Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy. Statewide, McCarthy won with 54% of the vote to Curb’s 42%.

HOW COUNTY VOTED U.S. Senate

County State Cranston (D) 35% 49% Zschau (R) 62% 48% Valle (AIP) 2% 1% McKinley (Lib) 1% 1%

Governor

County State Bradley (D) 25% 37% Deukmejian (R) 72% 61%

Secretary of State

County State March Fong Eu (D) 50% 69% Bruce Nestande (R) 46% 26%