The State : Quake Risk ‘Overstated’
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Federal researchers said they believe that scientists may have “overstated” the risk that a major earthquake could rock the high-technology Silicon Valley anytime soon. Some studies have suggested a 20% to 90% likelihood of such a quake within 20 years on a 55-mile stretch of the fault around San Jose, Santa Clara and Palo Alto. But in a study made public at the American Geophysical Union’s fall meeting in San Francisco, U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Wayne Thatcher said analysis indicates only a 6% chance that the San Andreas Fault will cause a quake measuring 7 on the Richter scale in the next 20 years.
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