See It Here First: The Shape of Things to Come

This is the time of year when so-called psychics issue predictions of events to come.

So following this time-honored tradition, I shall for the first time in my career publish my own set of predictions.

Longtime readers of this column are aware that I am a student of conjuring and a collector of books on the subject, as well as a performer of magic tricks. However, they are not aware that I am a psychic--a thoroughly phony psychic, to be sure, but as much of a psychic as any of the self-proclaimed ones are, I believe.

As I shall not be writing another New Year’s column, for I shall be retiring from The Times this March on the 66th anniversary of my birth, I feel that the moment has arrived for me to pass on some of my knowledge of the arcane art of being a psychic, particularly in the area of New Year’s predictions.

A late acquaintance of mine, David Hoy, who billed himself theatrically as Dr. Faustus, made quite a reputation for himself with his predictions. In fact, he usually closed his act with a series of predictions, after performing various other feats of extrasensory perception, all of which were based upon certain principles of deception known to the conjuring profession.

Alas, poor Hoy, at one time a radio announcer with a dramatic voice and strong stage presence, found the psychic game to be so lucrative that he conveniently forgot to announce any disclaimer of genuine psychic powers, an ethical necessity, according to the International Brotherhood of Magicians and the Society of American Magicians. Unfortunately, there are far too many people in this enlightened era of ours whose will to believe in the so-called supernatural is so strong that they can be hoodwinked easily by those parading as genuine psychics.

A simple parlor trick, such as discerning the name of a deceased person written on a slip of folded paper, without apparently opening that paper (known as “billet reading” among magicians), can be presented with such dramatic force that the gullible among us will believe that they have witnessed a genuine psychic phenomenon.

David Hoy had such a personality, which, coupled with his bold methods of deception, made such simple conjuring feats seem like miracles.

His method of making his newspaper headline predictions was equally simple, as are all such predictions made by other leading “psychics.”

Here’s how it’s done: A study of past news events is essential. Combine this with a shrewd sense of probable cause and effect.

For instance, the Irvine Co. lost the special election to determine expansion of Newport Center. Some people who voted against it still would like to have a new Newport art museum, as was proposed by the company. The door is ajar for the Irvine Co. to reach a compromise with the Newport City Council on a lesser expansion, quite possibly including the new museum. These are the past facts and logical probabilities.

Based on these, a psychic might predict that a new, larger art museum in Newport Beach will be announced in the fall of 1987.

The technique is to throw out a series of simple, strongly worded predictions. Hoy learned from experience that his batting average was about 60%. As for for the predictions that failed to come true, they were forgotten by his public. Those that came true were remembered. The same technique is used by all self-proclaimed psychics.

Here are some probabilities that can be turned into dramatic predictions for 1987:

A violent earthquake will wrench Orange County early in August. John Wayne Airport will have an air tragedy late in the spring. A police scandal will rock a north county city. Research in plant pathology at UC Irvine will result in a possible cure for a fatal disease. An anonymous benefactor will enrich the Laguna Beach Art Museum. A Mexican hurricane will reach Southern California during the late summer, and several boats will be lost. Sociological surveys will show that more couples living together will decide to marry. Windup clocks will gain in popularity as power outages increase with a sudden oil shortage late in the year.

In conclusion, here’s a funny one I kind of like. It’s guaranteed to come true: The sun will set at 5:20 p.m. early next fall. But on that fateful day, it will not set in a certain henhouse in Orange Park Acres.

(The fact is, the son of a hen never sets in anybody’s henhouse.)

A violent earthquake will wrench Orange County early in August. John Wayne Airport will have an air tragedy late in the spring. A police scandal will rock a north county city.