Metro Rail Cost Estimate Climbs Nearly $1 Billion

Costs to build a completed Los Angeles Metro Rail system exceed previous estimates by nearly $1 billion, according to some calculations.

A report by the Southern California Rapid Transit District says that officials have identified a route for the commuter line that appears to have the broadest possible community approval, and its price tag is $4.2 billion, up from the $3.3 billion that the RTD has long stated would be the system’s total cost.

The report, a financial analysis, describes the so-called “consensus route” that has emerged from months of public meetings. The route would link a downtown segment with Hollywood, the Wilshire Boulevard corridor and the San Fernando Valley.

Alternatives are still open for consideration, but the RTD report shows that their costs too would be $300 million to $1.2 billion more than previously estimated.

The new estimates, which are likely to trigger renewed debate among local officials over how to pay for the controversial commuter rail system, comes at a time when the RTD’s critics are questioning the troubled bus agency’s ability to manage such a huge and complex construction project.

“It doesn’t make it any easier,” said RTD board member Marvin Holen, referring to the agency’s difficulty in making the costs of Metro Rail acceptable to sources of public funding and the general public.

Bill Christopher, coordinator of a coalition of homeowner groups opposed to an elevated Metro Rail line on Wilshire Boulevard, said the new cost figures “again raise the question: Is Metro Rail economically feasible in total?”

The new estimates are the first by the RTD that fully account for the construction delays caused by less-than-expected federal funding and reroutings ordered by Congress because of environmental problems. The increases are due to a longer construction time (completion in the year 2000 rather than the early 1990s), a longer route (about 20 miles instead of 18.6 miles), more stations, inflation and more expensive construction techniques. The $1.25-billion estimate for the first 4.4-mile downtown segment now under construction has not changed.

RTD officials insisted that the previous $3.3-billion figure could not be fairly compared to the new estimates because the projects are different. They also noted that the cost estimates could change, depending on the final route selected by the RTD board this spring.

“You’ve got to realize that this is a system that is going to be opening eight to 10 years after we originally proposed it would,” said Gary Spivak, RTD’s top transit planner.

However, one transit official said the increase appears large because the previous estimate had been understated for some time, due principally to unrealistic estimates on the time it would take to complete the system.

“The old project wasn’t going to be delivered for $3.3 billion,” said Rick Richmond, executive director of the Los Angeles Transportation Commission, which oversees much of RTD’s Metro Rail funding.

Half the Money

It is not clear where the additional funds will come from, but federal funds have been increasingly hard to come by. Even some strong Metro Rail supporters in Congress have said Los Angeles will be lucky to get half the money to complete the project from Washington. Previous Metro Rail funding plans called for as much as 80% federal funding.

Local tax funds would be the most likely source. RTD’s cost analysis, which district officials stress is preliminary, shows the difference could be made up by additional contributions from the county Transportation Commission, which controls a large pot of money generated by the county’s half-cent sales tax for transit.

Richmond said the commission strongly supports Metro Rail and has known for some time that more money would be needed. The commission could issue bonds to raise funds for Metro Rail, but no decisions have been made, he said.

With the higher estimates, the report says that as much as $1 billion may be needed from the commission, as compared to a previous pledge of $412 million.

Richmond stressed that the pace of Metro Rail construction will have to be balanced against that of the commission’s own commuter trolley construction program, which envisions a Long Beach line, a Century Freeway line, a San Fernando Valley line and an East Los Angeles line.

“We maybe will have to go slower on the light rails and Metro Rail and chart some middle course,” he said.

‘Balancing Act’

Los Angeles Councilman Michael Woo, a Metro Rail supporter and chairman of the council’s Transportation and Traffic Committee, said he does not see support on the City Council for increased city funding of Metro Rail. Woo, who is also a member of the Transportation Commission, noted that various areas of the county are competing for rail projects and an “extremely delicate balancing act” will be needed to gain political support for increased use of commission funds for Metro Rail.

“It’s going to be very expensive to proceed with the project, but my feeling is it is essential to the future development of the city,” he said.

The midrange $4.2-billion cost estimate for Metro Rail is based on completion of a route that RTD officials claim has won a “general consensus” of support from Westside groups and businesses. But debate on the final route is far from over.

The “consensus” route calls for extending the downtown segment west from MacArthur Park along Wilshire Boulevard, keeping it underground as far as Fairfax Avenue. A northern branch would include elevated sections along Vermont Avenue and Hollywood Boulevard, returning to a subway as it turns north toward North Hollywood.

The Wilshire subway proposal has generated opposition from homeowner groups in the area and from Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Los Angeles), a Metro Rail critic who represents the Wilshire area. It was Waxman, concerned about the hazards of methane gas pockets in and around the Fairfax District, who two years ago won a congressional ban on tunneling through the area. RTD officials say the new proposal, rather than boring a tunnel, would use a more costly but less hazardous trenching technique through the methane area.

The Wilshire Chamber of Commerce supports a subway beneath Wilshire, but Waxman said Wednesday that he would strongly oppose any subway in the Fairfax area.

Alternate Route

Homeowner groups in the area say the trenching plan would cause too much disruption of traffic. They generally have supported an alternative subway route looping south of Wilshire to Pico and San Vicente boulevards.

Meanwhile, Woo, who represents Hollywood, said some of his constituents have serious objections to an elevated line running down Hollywood Boulevard. Bill Welsh, president of the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce, said the business community would prefer having the line on Sunset Boulevard, but the RTD has insisted on the Hollywood Boulevard route.

The least expensive of the routes being studied--it has a total price tag of about $3.7 billion--is also the most politically unpopular. It calls for elevated lines on Wilshire, Vermont and Hollywood Boulevard. Both business and homeowner groups along Wilshire oppose an elevated line there.