Governor as a Favorite Son: Yeas and Nays

In his own “thoughtful, cautious, deliberate” way, Gov. George Deukmejian is consulting some of the nation’s best political minds to determine if he should run as a favorite-son presidential candidate in next year’s California primary, he said Saturday.

But Deukmejian and his closest advisers insisted that he has no grand designs for parlaying a successful favorite-son candidacy into a serious bid for the presidency. And enthusiasm among politicos for a mere favorite-son candidacy seemed, in interviews with The Times, to fall off sharply beyond California’s Capitol and the state’s Republican Establishment.

Veterans of presidential politics, some of whom have advised Deukmejian, said privately here and in California that a favorite-son candidacy is politically perilous and even a bit amateurish.

“You know what happens to favorite-son candidates? They end up being laughed at. Favorite sons went out 20 years ago,” said one adviser to a current GOP presidential contender. Like all those interviewed who privately would advise Deukmejian to scrub the favorite-son idea, this veteran consultant did not want to be identified.

On the other side, outgoing California Republican Chairman Clair W. Burgener argued that a successful favorite-son candidacy by the popular governor would keep peace in the state GOP by heading off a bitter primary, save millions of dollars in contributors’ money that could be spent on congressional and legislative campaigns, and give Deukmejian “enormous clout” at the national nominating convention because he would be leading the largest delegation.

What California’s Republican Establishment--the officeholders particularly--say privately is that a Deukmejian favorite-son candidacy would insulate them from having to choose up sides among any of the serious candidates.

But Andy Carter II, Vice President George Bush’s Western campaign director, said that regardless of what Deukmejian does, Bush intends to run in the California primary--a point also echoed by advisers to other candidates.

One veteran of several presidential campaigns said Deukmejian “may be biting off more than he can chew. This is a power trip, and his people don’t know what they’re doing. If I’m George Bush or (Sen.) Bob Dole or (Rep.) Jack Kemp, I’m going to say, ‘George, I’m going to come in and whip your butt.’ And the electorate is going to choose between guys who really want to be President. Presidential politics is serious business with the American people.”

A strategist in the presidential campaign of Kemp (R-N.Y.) said of Deukmejian’s potential favorite-son candidacy: “Conservatives can’t allow it to happen” because the governor probably would wind up turning over his delegate votes to Bush--something the governor insists is not necessarily so. Anyway, this Kemp strategist said, “being a favorite son is a terrible idea. Some candidate is always on a roll, and he’ll roll right over a popular governor, no matter who he is.”

But another advocate of a favorite-son candidacy--a conservative--took things a step farther, theorizing that a deadlocked convention ultimately could turn to Deukmejian as its presidential nominee. State Sen. H. L. Richardson (R-Glendora) asserted that the current contenders “are like a bunch of boats foundering in the water with no wind. There’s no movement. Deukmejian’s just come off a big (reelection) win, he disposed of (California Chief Justice) Rose Bird and everybody trusts him.

“If you had any candidates out there who had a lot of charisma, I’d say there would be a problem. But in politics you have to make judgments about those you’re playing against. I’d suggest he go in (to the convention) as a favorite son and use his leverage and see what he gets--and don’t preclude crossing the finish line. A person like him who doesn’t look at the presidency does a disservice to himself and his state and his party.”

But such zeal, also echoed by other state legislators, is dismissed by Deukmejian and his inner circle. “It’s out of the question,” said Los Angeles attorney Karl M. Samuelian, the governor’s chief political fund-raiser. “No. 1, he’s really not known nationally. No. 2, there’s a Democratic lieutenant governor. George Deukmejian is not the kind of a man to pick up and leave California in the hands of a Democrat.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy said: “I chuckle every time I read that. If George Deukmejian had an opportunity to get the presidential nomination at the Republican convention, it would take him one-thousandth of a second to make that decision. If he were offered a vice presidential nomination, it would be a longer pause. I’m not sure how he feels on that.”

Deukmejian, here to attend the National Governors Conference, was asked Saturday during a press conference with California reporters whether he wanted to be President. “Pardon?” he said, startled by the question.

After the question was repeated, he replied: “Well, if I wanted to be President, I would have declared myself as a candidate for President. And I would go out and enter all the primaries. The only way you’re going to get to be President of the United States is to go out and campaign and win your party’s nomination. And, of course, I have no plans to do that. I have taken no steps in that direction.”

As for the vice presidency, the governor of the state with the most electoral votes gave his usual disclaimer: Second spot on the ticket undoubtedly will be filled by someone who has run for President and “it may very well be a woman;” beyond that, a Democrat is lieutenant governor.

But this time Deukmejian added a new wrinkle, seemingly opening the door slightly to a vice presidential possibility: “It’s not going to happen . . . (but) if somebody asked me, I’m just going to, as I do most things, look at it in a very deliberative fashion.”

Deukmejian’s chief of staff, Steven Merksamer, said later: “Honestly, I wouldn’t read much into that.”

Merksamer, who has never been involved in a presidential campaign, has been designated by Deukmejian as his chief solicitor of advice concerning a favorite-son candidacy. Presumably, the favorite son ultimately would turn over California’s delegate votes to a serious candidate.

Deukmejian also said he will meet with Bush, a political ally, and discuss the subject Monday. But Deukmejian denied that he would be a stalking horse for Bush, as advisers for the other contenders believe.

“I have a great deal of respect and admiration for George Bush. I also have a great deal of respect and admiration for many of the other outstanding candidates,” he said. “Really, I’m comfortable with any of the individuals that have been mentioned.” How about television evangelist Pat Robertson, he was asked. “Well, I don’t really know Pat Robertson,” he said with a smile and a tone that suggested he would have a hard time supporting the preacher.

When will he decide whether to become a favorite son? “I’m a rather thoughtful, cautious, deliberate individual, and I like to find out everything there is to know about something before making a major decision. And I’m in that process right now. . . . I’m not leaning one way or the other. . . . I’d like to make it as soon as possible.” He said he expects a decision before summer.

Merksamer is probably getting an earful of advice that he does not particularly enjoy hearing, if what some of these people have told The Times is any indication.

“The favorite-son thing is an anachronism,” said one political adviser. He noted that it has been 20 years since California last sent a Republican favorite son to the convention. That was then-Gov. Ronald Reagan, who became a serious presidential candidate that year and then lost miserably when the convention roll was called.

The biggest difference between then and now--virtually every politico pointed out--is that in 1968 only one primary was held before mid-March; next year, 16 are scheduled to be. Put another way, 57% of the delegates will be chosen by mid-March next year; as recently as 1980, only 17% were. All this means that the nomination undoubtedly will be locked up by the time Californians vote June 7.