The Prime-Time Crunch Causes Delays in Flights

Last year, flight delays rose 23% above 1985 levels. Delays of more than 15 minutes surged more than 20% at the 22 busiest U.S. airports. (There were an average of 1,144 flight delays every day in 1986.)

The first problem is one of scheduling and competition among airlines on popular routes.

Here’s a look at classic arrival delays that happen almost daily:

O’Hare Airport. 9 to 9:30 a.m. Most airlines that fly to Chicago have a plane scheduled to land there within this 30-minute period.

In the first half-hour there are 63 scheduled arrivals, and 49 of those are scheduled between 9:15 and 9:30. According to individual airline schedules, 36 arrivals are scheduled at 9:15 . . . a physical impossibility.

Even if you assume that all airlines going into O’Hare could operate on two separate runways, if your plane is scheduled to land at 9:15 it still means you stand only a 1-in-18 chance of landing on time in Chicago.

Given the odds, is it still possible to fly to Chicago and land on time at O’Hare around 9 in the morning?

Wayne Dimmic, an air traffic controller based in St. Charles, Mo., says the answer is a qualified yes. He publishes the Peak Delay Guide, a monthly list of each airline’s flights to and from major U.S. airports, including expected arrival and departure delays.

“Our figures show that if you can get on a plane that lands in Chicago before 9:15 in the morning,” he said, “you should make it with a very light delay factor.”

Some Dimmic flight comparisons: United Airlines Flight 1 leaves Newark Airport at 7:30 a.m. and arrives at O’Hare at 8:52 a.m. According to Dimmic’s statistics, the flight will experience an eight-minute delay in good weather and a 15-minute delay in bad weather.

One Without Delay

A little while later, UAL Flight 951 leaves White Plains, N.Y., at 7:50 a.m., and is scheduled to arrive at O’Hare at 9:11.

“According to our stats,” Dimmic said, “he receives virtually no delay, regardless of weather in the air.”

The crunch comes for planes arriving a little later. United Flight 63 and American Flight 553 both depart from La Guardia at 8 a.m. and are scheduled to arrive at O’Hare at 9:25.

Reasonable Odds

“Under good weather conditions,” Dimmic said, “we show a 27-minute delay. Poor weather conditions gives these flights a 43-minute delay.”

Dimmic’s statistics don’t--and can’t--cover unscheduled mechanical delays, weather problems on the ground or baggage loading problems.

“We’re just trying to give folks the reasonable odds of getting where they’re going on time, based on what the air traffic system can handle.”

Denver arrivals are also a major problem. If, for example, you need to leave Colorado Springs in the morning and fly to Denver in time to make a flight connection to anywhere else, chances are good that you’ll miss the connection, Dimmic said.

The exception is Continental Flight 3321, which departs Colorado Springs at 7:15 and is scheduled to arrive in Denver at 7:50. Dimmic’s report: no delay.

Half an hour later, things get worse. United Flight 3702 leaves Colorado Springs at 7:45 and is scheduled to arrive in Denver at 8:15. In good weather, the flight has a 13-minute delay; poor weather extends that delay to 28 minutes.

Continental Flight 419 is scheduled to leave Colorado Springs five minutes later, at 7:50, and arrive at 8:20. That extra five minutes could make a big difference. In good weather, Dimmic’s stats indicate a 24-minute delay; in bad weather, 50 minutes.

Day’s Busiest Hour

The reason: The 8 a.m. hour in Denver is one of the busiest of the day, with 70 arrivals for that hour. Twenty-three are scheduled to arrive between 8 and 8:15. Forty flights are due in between 8:15 and 8:30. The big crunch comes when 16 flights show up, all scheduled to land at 8:10. (If you’re on one of those flights, you have a 2-in-16 chance of being on time, if both parallel runways in Denver are in use.)

At O’Hare, 91 departures are scheduled between 6 and 7 each evening. Forty-nine of those head west, and 42 of them leave between 6:30 and 6:45 p.m.

If you depart on American Flight 185 at 6:39 for Los Angeles (scheduled to arrive at 8:39), Dimmic predicts a departure delay of between six and eight minutes. Not too bad.

Five minutes later, American Flight 599 leaves at 6:44 for Long Beach with a scheduled arrival at 8:56. However, it receives a 20-minute departure delay.

Chain Reaction of Delays

“The problem with this flight is the exact minute that it’s leaving,” Dimmic said. “At 6:39 there are nine departures. At 6:40 there are 14 departures, and the spillover effect of those delays affects the 12 departures scheduled at 6:44, not to mention the 11 departures scheduled at 6:45. The first airplane that gets out at 6:39 has no problem. Everyone else has a problem.”

Many solutions have been proposed to lessen delays. Unfortunately, few solutions have ever been implemented to deal with the problem of wait reduction.

Lately, however, there have been some attempts. The Federal Aviation Administration recently revised air traffic control routes and procedures in the eastern U.S., adding departure and arrival routes to the three New York metropolitan airports.

The Department of Transportation is doing an intense study of 13 airports with bad delay problems (the worst is Atlanta). The DOT has also proposed to grant antitrust immunity to airlines that agree to meet and discuss schedule changes at those same airports.

FTC Has Own Proposal

But some officials of the Federal Trade Commission have opposed the talks, claiming that they are “likely to harm both competition and consumers.”

Instead, the FTC proposes that the DOT should set a maximum number of landings and takeoffs during peak periods and permit airlines to buy and sell the slots. The proposal is not popular with airlines.

“We’ve been working with the FAA very closely on this,” said David Swierenga, spokesman for the Air Transport Assn. (the industry group representing the major airlines). Not surprisingly, the association supports the idea of increasing the air traffic control system capacity.

“We think it will improve schedule efficiency,” Swierenga said, “to reduce the 15-mile separation between approaching airplanes to 10 miles. It puts more airplanes into the system and will reduce delays.”

System Already Burdened

But the problem, say many air traffic controllers, is that the transport association suggestion only taxes an already burdened system.

“The answer is to reduce the number of planes in the sky, not increase it,” said one air traffic controller. “It’s a two-pronged approach. The idea is to handle fewer planes to reduce delays, and to handle those planes with more care.”

“No single institution should be held solely responsible for airline delays,” said Rep. Norman Y. Mineta (D-Calif.), chairman of the House aviation subcommittee. “There is more than enough blame to pass around.

“On the government side, we can point to the FAA’s slowness in rebuilding the air traffic control system after the 1981 strike. Controller staffing has fallen behind our expectations. We will need 1,000 more controllers to even approach the pre-strike level.”

Some people, including Dimmic, are proposing an airline ETA (estimated time of arrival) rating, based on peak traffic periods at major airports.

Legislation Introduced

Legislation to require specific reporting of delays has been introduced by Rep. Denny Smith (R-Ore.). The bill submitted by Smith (a former Pan Am pilot) would require airlines to make public their on-time records on ticket jackets and would require them to publish a statement of their policy on delays and cancellations.

Until that happens, here are some other suggestions:

Always call the airline before leaving to find out whether your flight is on time. If the reservations agent says, “It shows that it’s leaving on time,” this can be misleading.

Ask whether your flight originates in the city you are leaving from. If it doesn’t, you are at the mercy of possible delays in other cities.

Ask where the specific plane you hope to fly on is arriving from, and at what time. If you’re scheduled to leave at 8 p.m. and the incoming plane isn’t due to arrive until 7:45, you can count on a delay.

Extra Planes Help

On very busy routes, some airlines have tried to handle the problem by keeping an extra plane on hand. In the crowded Los Angeles-San Francisco corridor, PSA keeps an extra plane at both LAX and San Francisco airports. “If we anticipate a delay with an incoming flight,” said spokesman Bill Hastings, “we can roll out the extra plane to keep our on-time schedule for departing passengers.”

Once at the airport, don’t just accept the information displayed on the departure screens or the departure time posted at the gates. If you’re within 30 minutes of a scheduled departure, ask an airline representative whether your flight is on the ground. If your plane hasn’t landed, chances are very good that you won’t be leaving on time.

Under ideal conditions, the fastest most airlines can “turn” an aircraft--that is, deplane incoming passengers, clean, fuel and cater it--is 20 minutes.

Keep your options open. Ask for the airline’s policy on rerouting you if your flight is delayed beyond a reasonable time. Then check the schedule of other airlines carefully for alternate flights to leave within 15 minutes of your intended flight. And be prepared to move quickly to another airline once you determine that your first choice flight is delayed.