INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL : WITH RENEWED INTEREST IN OVERSEAS TRAVEL, AMERICANS ARE RETURNING TO EUROPE AND THE WORLD

In the wake of a distressing 1986 season in Europe, the travel industry is focusing on 1987 with cautious optimism.

While strides were made in tourism in many areas of the world last year, Europe suffered. With reports of scattered violence, Americans by the thousands canceled trips. It was a disappointing year for the Europeans, who have come to depend on U.S. tourism to bolster their own economies. Airlines took huge losses along with hotel and tour operators. Now with the ’87 season under way, Americans appear to be putting to rest concern over violence as they rush to sign up for tours of Britain and the Continent.

In an annual poll conducted by The Times Travel Section, industry leaders agreed that barring any unforeseen violence this spring, Europe likely will be teeming with U.S. visitors by summer.

With renewed interest in Europe, U.S. travelers will be returning to old haunts in London, Paris, Rome and other perennial favorites.

Indeed, if there is a deterrent to travel overseas in 1987, probably it will involve the weakening U.S. dollar. Francis Goranin, president of the American Society of Travel Agents, told The Times that rates at Europe’s luxury hotels will cost Americans up to 35% more because of the dollar’s deflated buying power.

On the other hand, travel habits of Americans are changing. Instead of spending recklessly, they are searching out those same bargains sought by Europeans.

As a result, ASTA’s Goranin is forecasting a 10% increase in tourism to Europe while a number of other industry leaders are even more optimistic. An all-time record was set in 1985 when 6.4 million Americans crowded Europe. Then last year with the memory of a TWA airliner hijacking, airport violence and the incident on the Italian liner, Achille Lauro, Europe’s tourism plunged.

“Europe was reeling at the end of 1986 from the decline in U.S. arrivals,” said Martin B. Deutsch, editor and publisher of Travel Management Daily, explaining that “many European suppliers and tourism officials blamed the U.S. news media for unfairly magnifying the danger of travel to Europe.” Deutsch said tour operators and group travel companies were especially affected. “Some suffered declines of up to 90% and others closed down altogether.”

While the specter of inflation due to the soft dollar is a new consideration, the industry appears generally optimistic.

Those replying to The Times poll made these other observations:

--Mexico expects a “stunning” increase in tourism during 1987.

--The Orient anticipates a successful year.

--Australia looks forward to new records due to the publicity generated by the America’s Cup and because of Australia’s own lively promotions.

--In the case of Canada, where the U.S. dollar remains strong, an increase by American visitors is anticipated.

--South America is expected to experience only modest successes in 1987.

--The cruise business will continue its unprecedented growth.

Beefed-Up Security

Donna Tuttle, U.S. undersecretary for Travel and Tourism, told The Times that a beefed-up security program in Europe is responsible for the anticipated return by Americans to the Continent.

“This (security) is a high-priority item,” she said.

To attract U.S. visitors, the industry points to a number of bargain packages.

Globus-Gateway/Cosmos is featuring a 16-day tour of England, Holland, Germany, Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France for $869 that includes first-class hotels, transfers, sightseeing and some meals.

Brendan Tours is offering an 11-day tour of Ireland that will provide accommodations with breakfast and dinner (with a banquet at Bunratty Castle) for $668. The same operator is booking a 16-day grand tour of Europe for $869 with visits to Holland, Germany, Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France.

Dennis Droushiophis, vice chairman of the European Travel Commission, is even more optimistic than his colleagues. Droushiophis is predicting a 15% increase among American travelers. “Europe is hoping to attract that large number of U.S. visitors who canceled their trips last year.”

Lively Promotions

Representing 23 nations, the ETC is conducting a lively promotion campaign. “With air fares stabilized and more attractive land packages, the consumer will be receiving a great deal of value,” the ETC told The Times.

Still, with the weakening dollar, tourists must shop for bargains. They are still available for those who do their homework.

Britain is anticipating as many as 3 million American visitors. With 1987 marking the 400th anniversary of the execution of Mary, Queen of Scots, observances will be staged throughout Scotland in castles and palaces associated with that monarch, including Stirling Castle where the queen was crowned.

Likewise, Germany is preparing to celebrate the 750th anniversary of Berlin. A near-entire year of events is scheduled by both sides of the divided city. The May 1 opening will be followed with performances by world-renowned orchestras, ballet groups, opera stars and rock musicians, along with science shows and turn-of-the-century entertainment at Berlin’s famous Tiergarten.

Eric Friedheim, publisher of Travel Agent magazine, made these observations concerning travel in 1987:

--Air fares will be attractive because of competition among airlines serving the North Atlantic.

--Independent travel will grow among tourists who prefer “to get lost in the crowd rather than identify with a group.”

--Russia will “bounce back after Chernobyl.”

Russia Increase

Indeed, ASTA’s Goranin, who specializes in tours of Eastern Bloc nations through his own company, said space already is hard to come by in Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev and Black Sea resorts. Tight security, he said, is credited with the increase in travel to Russia.

Security was also beefed up in Athens last year. Vasilis Papadatos, director of the Greek National Tourist Organization in Los Angeles, insists (as he did in ‘86) that Athens Airport is “possibly the safest airport in the world today.” Nevertheless, group travel to Athens remains light.

Paul Albrecht, chairman of the 42-member U.S. Tour Operators Assn., said that Americans who canceled trips in ’86 “have our phones ringing off the hook.” (His own company, Globus-Gateway, figures to move more than 100,000 U.S. travelers to Europe in 1987.)

Tempting offers by tour operators include a one-week package during the high season in London that will feature hotels, breakfasts, transfers and sightseeing for $329. At the same time, Israel’s airline, El Al, is promoting a low-cost tour it calls the “Milk & Honey” package. For $39 over the round-trip air fare from Los Angeles, El Al will provide one week in Israel, including hotels and a rental car.

Last year Israel suffered a 28% loss in tourism. Shmuel Zurel, director of the Israel Government Tourist Office in Los Angeles, blames “one-side” media coverage of terrorist acts for the decline. Zurel insists that tourists are “perfectly safe on the streets of Israel.”

Terrorism Coverage

Other industry observers agree with Zurel that the media over-reacted to the coverage of terrorism, recalling how news cameras in ’86 focused on police armed with automatic weapons at airports in London and Rome.

One American arriving at a London airport last summer asked a policeman: “Where are all the tanks?”

“It was that foolish,” said a member of the British Tourist Authority. “While security has been strengthened at airports, life goes ahead as usual in the country--even in London.”

Nevertheless, the media continues to take the rap for what the industry insists is “sensationalized” coverage of terrorist acts.

On the other hand, Americans are awakening to the chilling fact that violence in the United States, where 18,980 homicides occurred in 1985, no doubt is greater than any threat to their safety on the streets of Europe. (FBI reports for homicides in ’86 are still being compiled.)

While Europe waits impatiently for the arrival of the Americans, the Pacific anticipates a prosperous year. Australia in particular looks for a good deal of attention. Daryl Hudson of the Australian Tourist Commission in Los Angeles described the application for visas as “staggering.”

The America’s Cup

While the America’s Cup generated heavy interest in Australia, other credit is given to Paul Hogan, the ex-bridge painter turned actor-entertainer whose promotional campaigns on behalf of Australia have drawn the attention of millions of TV viewers in the United States. In addition, tourism Down Under is expected to grow next year with the celebration of Australia’s bicentennial, highlighted by Expo 88 in Brisbane.

Others are looking to the Orient where a number of tours are sold out already. Tyler Tanaka of Japan & Orient Tours tells of an eight-day visit to Hong Kong that includes hotels and round-trip air fare for $899, or a combination Hong Kong-Singapore tour for $1,098. “The year has started with a bang,” said Tanaka, who packages other trips to the South Pacific.

Closer to home, Mexico reports a remarkable increase over 1986. “We think that it will be the best year ever,” said Carlos Hampe, regional director of the Mexican National Tourist Council. “In some cases, hotels are fully booked.”

Certain resort areas are 98% sold out, and it’s virtually impossible to find a hotel room in Cancun, Hampe said. Other popular destinations: Acapulco, Ixtapa, Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlan.

Hampe said Mexico, which suffered a huge loss in tourism following the Mexico City earthquake, expects 5 million visitors during 1987. A stampede is expected after April 15 when off-season prices go into effect.

Hawaii is gearing up for record crowds. Last year 5.8 million visitors took over the Islands; the Hawaii Visitors Bureau anticipates still higher figures in ’87.

Life After Expo

In Canada, life after Expo is expected to remain upbeat, what with Americans getting a huge break on the cheaper Canadian dollar. Alaska is another bright spot in the world’s travel picture. A logjam of cruise ships will move through the Inside Passage this summer, several of which were repositioned after the Achille Lauro incident in the Mediterranean. (At the same time, other cruise ships will be returning to the Mediterranean in ’87.)

As for the optimistic outlook for Europe, the industry gets an argument from Ron Harris, president of Hemphill Harris Travel Corp. in Encino. Harris disagrees about Europe and insists that South America, where he promotes tourism, is forging ahead.

Harris continues to attract the affluent traveler and his business is booming. For the eighth consecutive year Hemphill Harris is producing its renowned “World Cruise” by private jet, a 33-day, around-the-world adventure that takes in Rio, Easter Island, Tahiti (with a one-week cruise on a sailing ship), New Guinea, Hong Kong, Peking, Katmandu, Kenya and Monte Carlo.

The all-inclusive price: $25,000. What’s more, it’s sold out.

While a trifle less glamorous perhaps, a program produced by Trafalgar Tours will welcome travelers this summer on a visit to manor homes and castles in Britain that will feature first-class accommodations and most meals for only $999. All this comes out to under $67 a day, or a saving of $24,000--less the air fare--over the extravaganza Hemphill Harris is promoting.

With all that extra change, one could afford to haul home a jetload of souvenirs.