Commentary : It’s That Time of the Year: Baseball Expansion Talk Is in the Air

It happens every spring, like an annual UFO sighting. Another unidentified flying franchise--baseball for Washington in our lifetime--could be heading toward RFK Stadium. At various times over the past 16 years it’s been the San Diego Padres, the Houston Astros, the Baltimore Orioles, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the San Francisco Giants, an eternally recurrent yet always non-existent National League expansion team and even, last year, the Chicago White Sox. So far, no rumors have surfaced regarding the Hiroshima Carp.

Heaven help us (for we are about to sin again), but it’s that time of year.

Baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth gave the commencement address at the University of Maryland the other day, and afterward, with a little prodding, he opened that old can of worms again. In fact, he ripped the top off and spilled the slimy critters all over the place.

“If I even answer the question (of possible expansion), I get accused of trying to hype the subject,” said Ueberroth, disclaiming before diving into the deep end of the pool. “But you’ve asked it. I have a sense, a real sense, that they (the owners) are moving forward. Baseball’s no different than any institution. With all the teams losing money, expansion could not even be considered. But that’s (teams’ finances) turning around quickly. I think (expansion) is much more in the forefront. I’m not bringing it up (now). It’s being brought up in general by other baseball people, which is a good sign.

“I think the other sports have expanded. The NFL is talking about two (teams) and the NBA has added four.”

To grasp Ueberroth’s perspective, and give it proper weight, we must understand that he’s a charismatic capitalist. “ ‘Profit’ is a very nice word,” he told Maryland’s graduates. For Ueberroth, profit and expansion are the ways a businessman keeps score. Getting richer and getting bigger are guiding values that run so deep they’re barely questioned. That baseball might not expand under his stewardship would be a chilling thought. What, no growth?

However, like Bowie Kuhn, Ueberroth has no votes. He already had the limb sawed off behind him when he galavanted around America in 1985 talking about expansion being a front-burner issue and establishing his criteria for competing cities. Baseball owners yawned. They weren’t ready. So, Ueberroth tried to put a good face on his aborted expansion sell.

Now, he wants to tip us off that expansion flames are worth fanning once more. But he doesn’t want to take another beating for being a tease. He can’t have it both ways because his softest words make people jump. “That sounds a lot different from what he’s been telling us for the last year,” said an excited Andy Ockershausen of the D.C. Baseball Commission. “All we’ve heard is ‘back burner’ and ‘no discussions at this time.’ ”

Bob Pincus, a banking executive and member of the D.C. Baseball Commission, gives the most optimistic reading of the expansion scene. “I think this is a wonderful sign,” Pincus said of Ueberroth’s remarks. “Now is the time when this city can’t afford to get apathetic. When baseball expands it’ll probably be with a surprise spontaneous decision, just the way the (second) Senators came in ’61. Let’s be prepared. It’s up to the city to spend the $13 million that’s been appropriated for RFK Stadium renovations. Let’s not sit on it. Tampa-St. Pete is building an $80 million stadium. Baltimore has stadium plans. You need to have an aggressive mayor to help make it happen.”

Looked at from a business world view, and that’s how expansion decisions are made, baseball is moving into a growth atmosphere. The sport, despite its claims of universal bankruptcy, has had four ailing stores in recent years--Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Cleveland--and 22 tolerably healthy ones. Now, all but Seattle seem in better shape. Just as important, the owners recently completed a major economic victory when most of last winter’s free agents signed for vastly less money than expected. “The salary spiral is going in the right direction,” American League President Bobby Brown said.

Now that the moguls have solidified their monopoly, there may be internal pressure to expand. Why? Because baseball’s coming problem is cash flow. The next national television contract will be like football’s--a marginal increase at best. Yet expenses keep going up. Where do you get fresh capital? Expansion. The NBA got about $150 million for four teams. What would baseball get per team?

Baseball’s long-range planning committee met last week in Chicago and, according to Brown, expansion was again discussed, albeit briefly. The new twist from that confab is that the American League is now whispering about expanding to 16 teams while the National stays at 12. “With our current 14 teams, scheduling problems are monumental. They’d be eliminated with 16 teams,” said Brown. “Expansion, in that light, is always being looked at. . . . I believe there’ll come a day with 32 teams, 16 in each league. That number is certainly more magic than 26.”

Could a land-rush race develop? Does the American League, which would never expand to Washington (because of the Orioles’ infringement veto), want to beat the National League into Denver? And will the NL, which has been so cool to expansion, respond by trying to grab Denver and Washington, the two most attractive markets?

Anything’s possible. Nothing’s imminent.

Kuhn’s rule of thumb was that baseball only expanded when it felt threatened (by courts or Congress) or when it felt rich and expansive. Well, the guys in the owners’ boxes are smiling these days. In the last six months, they changed baseball’s economic history with their “restraint.” When players such as Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Rich Gedman and Ron Guidry did not get a single competitive salary offer from any new team, the free- agent era ended.

No one knows all the aftershocks this earthquake will produce. But the coming of expansion may no longer be quite as improbable as a Martian invasion.