The Gulf in Perspective

President Reagan has escalated his rhetoric as he prepares to appeal directly at next week’s economic summit meeting for more European help to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf. “The future belongs to the brave,” he proclaims. Well, yes. But the issue in the gulf right now has nothing to do with bravery. The issue is whether the Administration fully grasps what it may be plunging into with its self-assumed role as guardian of the gulf and defender of non-belligerent shipping. If such an understanding does indeed exist, it has not been plausibly communicated.

Shipping in the gulf has been at obvious risk ever since Iraq went to war against Iran in September, 1980. Hundreds of vessels have since come under attack, and scores of lives have been lost. Despite this, oil has continued to flow. Iran from time to time warns of its ability to shut down the gulf. Iran is capable of doing many crazy things; committing economic suicide is probably not among them. All of the oil that Iran exports to finance its war effort passes through the gulf. None of Iraq’s does.

The crisis that the Administration now perceives in the gulf stems from two occurrences, neither of which has any tangible relevance to the policy that it would pursue. First, Kuwait has leased three Soviet tankers, on the assumption that a Soviet flag will offer greater protection against Iranian attacks. This rather minor political gesture has given Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger strategic nightmares. From it he postulates a time when the gulf will become a Soviet lake, its oil-producing states dominated by Moscow. Only by hoisting the U.S. flag over 11 Kuwaiti tankers and boosting the Navy’s presence in the gulf, it is suggested, can this chilling possibility be prevented.

Iraq’s attack on the U.S. frigate Stark two weeks ago is the second reason given for the sense of urgency now gripping the Administration. Again, though, logic is being stood on its head. Iraq attacks a U.S. ship, therefore the United States must parade its readiness to do battle with Iran. A lot of Americans, as a Times poll published today shows, have no idea where the Persian Gulf is. That hasn’t left them any less confused or anxious about what the Administration may be blundering into there.

The President has again sounded the charge: “Free men must not cower before such challenges.” What he has yet to do is give any good explanation why the “challenges” in the gulf are any greater now than in the past. What he has yet to do is make clear that the policy he is embarking on is in fact required by the circumstances. What he has yet to do is persuade those he summons to follow him that the course he envisions isn’t one that invites needlessly provocative risks.